War in Ukraine Amidst Global Focus Shift to the Middle East
Russia has dramatically escalated its campaign in Ukraine. Overnight on June 29–30, it launched the largest aerial attack since the 2022 invasion—537 aerial weapons, including 477 drones/decoys and 60 missiles—targeting Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, Kherson, and Odesa. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted a significant portion, yet the strikes inflicted civilian casualties and damaged critical infrastructure, including power grids and industrial hubs. Concurrently, Russia is amassing tens of thousands of troops near Sumy and Kharkiv, suggesting preparation for a renewed summer offensive.
Simultaneously, ongoing Israeli–Iranian clashes—including strikes on Iranian drone facilities—are reshaping global dynamics. Israel’s June 13 attack reportedly destroyed facilities producing Shahed drones components, which Russia uses extensively in Ukraine. This degradation of Iran’s drone-production network threatens to curb Russia’s drone supply pipeline. Meanwhile, the Israel–Middle East conflict diverts U.S. and NATO political attention—and arms procurement—from Ukraine, easing pressure on Russia and dampening the urgency behind Western military aid. Peace initiatives aimed at halting the war in Ukraine—like Istanbul talks—have been shelved, as diplomatic bandwidth shifts to the Middle East and Ukraine is forced to stretch its defensive posture further.
Base Case Scenario: Protracted War with Gradual Russian Gains (60%)
In this scenario, Russia sustains intense aerial assaults while slowly pressing ground advances in Kharkiv and Sumy. Israeli strikes on Iranian drone facilities disrupt Shahed drone supplies temporarily but do not fully sever the pipeline; Moscow rapidly pivots to stockpiled drones and new production lines with Chinese components. Western political bandwidth remains split between Ukraine and the Middle East, delaying advanced air-defense deliveries and larger aid packages. Diplomatic talks remain frozen, as NATO members are unwilling to broker new frameworks until the U.S. election cycle stabilizes. Ukraine’s infrastructure, especially energy grids and industrial capacity, continues to erode under persistent bombardment. This trajectory favors a grinding, attritional conflict that stretches deep into 2026 without major territorial breakthroughs but with Russia holding a steady operational edge. The probability is 60%, reflecting the alignment of sustained Russian pressure, fragmented Western focus, and limited near-term breakthroughs on either side.
Upside Scenario: Supply Disruption and Western Reengagement Reinforce Ukraine (20%)
Here, Israeli attacks on Iranian drone and missile production yield deeper damage than expected, curbing Russia’s drone resupply pipeline for months. At the same time, the U.S. and EU governments coordinate fresh, expedited air-defense shipments—including additional Patriots and NASAMS—closing Ukraine’s airspace more effectively and reducing civilian infrastructure losses. The cumulative effect of drone scarcity and robust Ukrainian defenses begins to slow Russia’s offensive momentum. The protraction of the Middle East crisis ironically triggers renewed Western solidarity with Ukraine, as policymakers recognize the reputational cost of perceived neglect. These developments reinvigorate diplomatic engagement, reviving Istanbul negotiations or opening new channels via Turkey or the UN. The probability of this more favorable outcome for Ukraine is 20%, reflecting both the substantial logistical hurdles facing Russia’s drone strategy and the possibility of Western recalibration under public and strategic pressure.
Downside Scenario: Major Russian Breakthrough amid Western Distraction (20%)
In this downside path, Russian troops exploit the distraction of simultaneous Middle East crises to launch a large-scale summer offensive that overwhelms Ukraine’s overstretched defenses near Kharkiv and Sumy. Israel’s strikes, while damaging some Iranian facilities, fail to disrupt the Russian drone supply chain meaningfully; instead, Iran accelerates covert exports via intermediaries. Western aid pipelines suffer further delays as NATO diverts resources to Israel, and U.S. political gridlock impedes funding authorizations. Russia capitalizes by intensifying drone and missile barrages on Ukrainian energy and transport infrastructure, inflicting critical damage that hobbles industrial output and disrupts military logistics. Ukrainian morale weakens as civilian hardship mounts and territorial losses accelerate. With minimal diplomatic pressure, Moscow consolidates new gains and entrenches a deeper occupation zone. The probability of this scenario is 20%, reflecting Russia’s clear operational advantages if Western focus continues to fracture and resupply bottlenecks persist.
