Wagner Out, Kremlin In: How Russia is Formalizing Power in Africa
In June 2025, Russia officially transitioned its paramilitary presence in Africa from the Wagner Group to a state-controlled force known as the Africa Corps. This marks a significant shift in strategy from deniable private military operations to formal, Kremlin-directed deployments across key African states including Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic. The move comes nearly two years after the deaths of Wagner leaders Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, and is framed by Russia’s broader objective to entrench itself as a dominant security partner on the continent. While the Africa Corps inherits much of Wagner’s personnel and equipment—70-80% of its ranks are ex-Wagner—the organizational structure is now tightly bound to Russia’s Ministry of Defense.
This development has profound downstream implications: politically by reinforcing anti-Western alignments, financially through deepened military-economic partnerships, and economically by securing long-term access to Africa’s resource corridors. Russia’s growing legitimacy in Africa may rewire regional power balances and amplify friction with Western governments, especially as sanctions and military aid strategies are reassessed in response.
Scenario Forecast
Base Case: Entrenched Containment (60%)
In this scenario, Russia maintains a durable but regionally limited presence in Africa. The Africa Corps successfully replaces Wagner in Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic, offering these regimes reliable military backing and regime security. However, Russia struggles to expand beyond these fragile states due to institutional resistance in more stable democracies and heightened Western diplomatic pushback. The United States and European Union respond by recalibrating their engagement strategies, increasing military aid to neighboring countries like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, and forming new regional coalitions to counterbalance Russian influence. Sanctions are expanded to cover Africa Corps-linked entities, complicating Russia’s access to global markets but not fully severing its African supply channels. This leads to an uneasy stalemate: Russia is unable to dominate the continent, but the West is unable to fully dislodge it either. The region becomes a contested geopolitical buffer, with both sides investing heavily in proxy partnerships, infrastructure influence, and information warfare.
Upside Case: Regional Pushback and Strategic Reversal (20%)
In this more optimistic trajectory, Russia’s Africa Corps faces mounting resistance, not from the West alone but from within the African continent itself. Civil societies in Mali and Burkina Faso, frustrated by economic stagnation, deteriorating public services, and increased Russian interference, spark popular movements against Moscow-backed regimes. A sudden shift—such as a coup reversal or electoral surprise—reduces Russia’s footprint and delegitimizes its narrative as a stable security provider. Concurrently, Western nations, revitalized by a growing recognition of Africa’s strategic value, invest in long-term development aid, counterterrorism support, and private-sector partnerships. This reengagement stabilizes key frontline states and neutralizes Russia’s ability to use Africa as a resource and logistics hub for its war in Ukraine. Over time, the Africa Corps becomes overstretched, faces funding bottlenecks due to sanctions, and fails to project sustained influence. Russia’s Africa strategy stagnates, and its broader geopolitical credibility suffers.
Downside Case: Strategic Consolidation and Global Spillover (20%)
This scenario envisions Russia successfully embedding the Africa Corps into multiple fragile states, creating a stable network of bases, airfields, and mineral contracts that feed both its geopolitical ambitions and its war economy. The Africa Corps expands beyond the Sahel into Libya, Sudan, and possibly Niger, offering regime support in exchange for strategic access to ports and mineral-rich zones. Through barter systems and new financial instruments shielded from Western oversight, Russia secures steady supplies of gold, uranium, and rare earth elements—critical to sustaining its war in Ukraine and resisting sanctions. Its military trainers, intelligence operatives, and electronic warfare systems create an integrated, semi-permanent security architecture across the region. As Russia gains leverage over trans-Saharan routes and Red Sea logistics, it transforms Africa into both a strategic buffer and a global spoiler. The West, slow to respond, finds itself marginalized in key theaters and faces deteriorating influence not only in Africa but also in multilateral institutions where Moscow’s African allies vote in alignment. In this case, Russia’s success in Africa amplifies its resilience in Ukraine, prolongs global instability, and fractures the already-weak post-Cold War security order.
