Ukraine’s new Oligarchs
Ukraine’s wartime economy has given rise to a new generation of oligarchs who represent a fundamental shift from the country’s post-Soviet business elite. Unlike their predecessors, these five key figures, Andri Stawnizer, Andri Koboljew, Olexander Hereha, Andri Kolodjuk, and Wasil Chmelnizki, operate as pro-Western, patriotic entrepreneurs who combine profit-making with military support and social responsibility.
Their combined wealth, estimated at $3-4 billion, flows through strategic sectors, including logistics, energy, construction materials, and critical minerals. The recent US-Ukraine minerals deal, signed in April 2025, creates a joint reconstruction investment fund worth potentially hundreds of billions of dollars, positioning these new oligarchs as key intermediaries in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. Despite Ukraine’s improved but still problematic corruption ranking of 35/100 (105th globally), this new business class operates within a transformed political environment where President Zelensky maintains centralized control, preventing the political capture that characterized the 1990s oligarchs.
Forecast Scenarios (GCHQ)
Likely (60-75%): Continued War Economy Consolidation Through 2026
These oligarchs will further consolidate their positions in strategic sectors as the war continues, leveraging their government connections and Western partnerships. With peace talks stalled and military operations continuing, Ukraine’s war economy will persist with GDP growth remaining below 3% through 2025-2026. The reconstruction cycle will continue generating profits while these entrepreneurs expand their social projects to maintain public legitimacy. Their wealth will likely grow modestly as they balance current profits with strategic positioning for post-war opportunities.
Realistic Possibility (45-55%): Post-War Transformation into Development Partners
If peace negotiations succeed by late 2025 or 2026, these oligarchs will transform into primary reconstruction partners, managing massive Western investment flows through the US-Ukraine fund and similar mechanisms. Dragon Capital projects 6% GDP growth in a ceasefire scenario, with budget gaps $10 billion lower. Their current strategic positioning in logistics, energy, and minerals would enable them to capture significant shares of reconstruction contracts worth hundreds of billions. This scenario would see their combined wealth potentially double as Ukraine transitions from a war economy to a reconstruction boom.
Unlikely (25-35%): Regulatory Backlash and De-oligarchization Enforcement
Growing international pressure over corruption and Ukrainian civil society demands could trigger serious anti-oligarchy enforcement, similar to actions against traditional oligarchs like Kolomoisky. Ukraine’s corruption score declined in 2024, with Transparency International noting that “many reforms are being implemented only formally, or their implementation is being deliberately stalled”. Western partners could demand stricter oversight of reconstruction funds, limiting these oligarchs’ ability to capture value from international investments. This would force them into smaller, more regulated roles while potentially triggering asset redistributions.
