Ukraine and U.S. Sign Memorandum of Intent on Critical Minerals

On April 17, 2025, Kyiv and Washington signed a memorandum of intent to advance a joint investment fund centered on Ukraine’s natural resources and energy assets. The deal grants the U.S. privileged access to critical minerals—including lithium, titanium, graphite, and uranium—in exchange for economic support and reconstruction funding. Ukraine will contribute 50% of future resource revenues to the fund.


This development comes amid faltering peace negotiations in Paris and London, where U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the U.S. would pause its push for a negotiated end to the war if progress isn't made soon. This minerals deal appears to be both a pressure tactic and an economic hedge—signaling sustained U.S. engagement with Ukraine, but in an increasingly transactional framework.


While the agreement offers Ukraine much-needed investment, it lacks new security guarantees, reflecting growing U.S. strategic ambiguity.

Political Effects

Financial Effects

Economic Effects

Political Effects

Financial Effects

Economic Effects

Key Data


  • 50% of resource revenues pledged to joint Ukraine-U.S. investment fund.

  • Final agreement expected by April 26, 2025.

  • Ukraine hosts some of Europe’s largest deposits of lithium, titanium, graphite, and uranium.

  • Estimated $90 billion in U.S. aid to Ukraine since 2022.

  • Rubio signals potential pause in U.S. diplomatic push for peace without near-term breakthrough.


Forecast (12–24 Months)


Base Case (Most Likely Scenario)


Ukraine and the U.S. finalize the fund in late April. Initial projects center around pre-identified mining zones in central and eastern Ukraine. Western firms begin exploration and infrastructure upgrades. Legal frameworks and transparency measures lag but progress incrementally. Mineral export capacity increases by mid-2026.


  • GDP Impact: +1.5–2.5% by end of 2026.

  • Revenue Potential: $5–7 billion/year by 2027 in mineral exports.

  • Strategic Risk: Conflict zones delay full resource development; U.S. support contingent on political alignment.


Upside Scenario


Peace talks succeed by summer 2025, enabling safe access to high-value mineral basins in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk. Rapid regulatory reforms attract top-tier mining firms. Ukraine integrates with EU raw materials strategy. The fund scales beyond $10B in commitments by 2026.


  • GDP Impact: >3.5% growth per year driven by mining sector.

  • Revenue Potential: Exports exceed $10 billion/year by 2027.

  • Strategic Leverage: Ukraine becomes central to EU and U.S. decarbonization supply chains.


Downside Scenario


Peace talks collapse. Active conflict disrupts mining zones. Corruption or political instability undermines fund management. U.S. investment slows or is retracted. Ukraine’s mineral sector becomes a domestic flashpoint.


  • GDP Impact: Flat or <1% growth; potential recession.

  • Revenue Loss: Fund stalls below $2 billion total deployment.

  • Investor Sentiment: High risk premium; capital flight from extraction projects.

Friday, April 18, 2025