The U.S. Nuclear Comeback Powering AI Infrastructure
Under President Trump’s second administration, nuclear energy has emerged as a cornerstone of U.S. energy and infrastructure policy. In May 2025, a sweeping series of executive orders set a bold national objective: quadruple nuclear capacity by 2050 to support both decarbonization and exploding energy demands from AI-driven data centers. This pivot comes amid the reality that the U.S. nuclear fleet is aging—average reactor age is over 40 years, with many operating under extended licenses and facing escalating maintenance and safety costs.
The Trump-era directives aim to modernize the sector by accelerating permitting timelines (cut to 18 months), restarting retired reactors, fast-tracking Small Modular Reactor (SMR) deployment, and revitalizing domestic uranium fuel supply chains. Traditional obstacles—lengthy reviews, investor uncertainty, and project delays—are being addressed via deregulation and public-private energy partnerships.
A key catalyst in this resurgence is Big Tech. Companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta have begun signing long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and making direct investments in nuclear infrastructure to power their growing fleets of data centers. These facilities are expected to consume 325–580 TWh of electricity annually by 2028, requiring firm, reliable, low-carbon power sources.
High-profile projects include the restart of Three Mile Island Unit 1, funded by Microsoft; Amazon’s SMR partnership with X‑energy; and Meta’s upgrade and licensing extension at the Clinton nuclear plant. Collectively, these corporate engagements not only secure energy reliability for AI infrastructure but also provide market certainty for nuclear developers, fueling a broader revival of American nuclear power.
Scenario Forecast: Future Trajectories for U.S. Nuclear Expansion
Base Case: “Accelerated but Uneven Expansion” (60% Probability)
In the most likely outcome, the United States successfully doubles its nuclear generating capacity by 2040, driven by the Trump administration’s reforms and ongoing private-sector demand. Under this scenario, restarted reactors such as Three Mile Island (Pennsylvania) and Clinton (Illinois) come online by the late 2020s, while early Small Modular Reactor (SMR) deployments by Amazon and Google begin producing power by the early 2030s. However, the growth remains uneven across regions. While states like Virginia, Washington, and Tennessee embrace rapid buildouts, others such as California and New York resist nuclear expansion due to environmental opposition and regulatory complications. High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) production scales slowly—just enough to support limited early-stage deployment. Workforce shortages and grid integration delays cause occasional bottlenecks. Nevertheless, nuclear ends up supplying around 20–25% of the nation's electricity by 2040, up from about 19% today, and becomes a crucial pillar supporting AI-driven digital infrastructure.
Upside Case: “Golden Age of Nuclear-Tech Convergence” (25% Probability)
In this optimistic scenario, nuclear energy becomes the dominant force in the U.S. power sector by 2040, propelled by seamless integration with Big Tech and transformative public policy support. Regulatory and financial frameworks created under the Trump administration are not only preserved but expanded by subsequent administrations. Massive federal investment, coupled with enthusiastic private-sector funding, accelerates SMR commercialization across the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Mountain West. Companies like Kairos Power, TerraPower, and X-energy achieve modular scale production, dramatically cutting construction costs and timelines. U.S. firms begin exporting SMRs and advanced reactor systems globally, opening up a $500 billion export economy by the mid-2030s. Domestic uranium enrichment capacity eliminates dependence on foreign suppliers, while bipartisan legislation codifies long-term subsidies and national defense incentives. Data center development rapidly relocates near nuclear microgrid zones, and nuclear contributes over 30% of national electricity output. Investor sentiment soars as nuclear becomes central to energy security, decarbonization, and technological competitiveness.
Downside Case: “Policy Reversal and Project Retrenchment” (15% Probability)
In the pessimistic scenario, political turnover following the 2028 presidential election leads to a rollback of Trump-era nuclear policies. Licensing reforms are reversed, and funding for reactor restarts is frozen. Major projects like the Three Mile Island restart and the Susquehanna-based SMRs tied to Amazon’s data center in Pennsylvania face injunctions following legal challenges by environmental groups. HALEU fuel supply remains constrained, forcing delays and cancellations of SMR projects. Inflation and labor shortages drive construction costs beyond viability, repeating the financial overreach seen with Georgia’s Vogtle units. Investor confidence erodes, leading to capital withdrawal from nuclear development funds. Tech companies such as Meta and Google begin shifting to more flexible renewable-plus-storage models or hydrogen-based alternatives. As a result, U.S. nuclear capacity remains flat or sees only marginal gains—at best a 10% increase by 2040. The country misses its AI energy needs, faces regional reliability concerns, and loses leadership in advanced nuclear technology to foreign competitors.
