The Pandemic Treaty Is Finalized After Three Years
After more than three years of extensive negotiations, the World Health Organization (WHO) Member States have reached a significant milestone by finalizing a draft pandemic treaty on May 20, 2025.
The treaty aims to strengthen global pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response following lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Key provisions include a pathogen access and benefit-sharing system where pharmaceutical companies would provide 10% of their pandemic-related products to the WHO for free distribution, with another 10% at reduced cost. However, important details on compensation mechanisms for countries sharing pathogen information remain unresolved and will be negotiated over the next 1-2 years.
The treaty affirms national sovereignty in public health decisions while promoting international cooperation, technology transfer, and supply chain coordination. The agreement represents a significant advancement in global health security despite compromises between wealthy and developing nations.
Forecast Scenarios (GCHQ)
Realistic Possibility (45-55%): Partial Implementation with Mixed Results
Within the next 12 months, the treaty will be formally adopted by the World Health Assembly and ratified by a sufficient number of countries to enter into force. However, implementation will proceed unevenly across different provisions. The pathogen access and benefit-sharing system will be established but with continued disputes over its operation. Early warning and information sharing systems will show improvement, while technology transfer and manufacturing capacity building will progress more slowly. Funding will remain below optimal levels, particularly for low-income countries. This scenario reflects the treaty's inherent compromises and the practical challenges of transforming complex global health systems, leading to incremental rather than transformative progress in pandemic preparedness.
Likely (55-75%): Major Developed-Developing Nation Disagreement Over Annex
Within 3-6 months, as WHO Member States begin negotiating the crucial annex on pathogen sharing and benefit distribution, significant tensions will emerge between developed and developing nations. Wealthy countries will advocate for minimal binding commitments while developing nations push for stronger benefit guarantees. This divide will delay finalization of the annex, postponing the treaty's implementation. However, the crisis will eventually prompt a compromise that preserves the treaty's core structure but with weaker benefit-sharing provisions than developing nations originally sought. The resulting agreement will improve upon the COVID-19 response framework but fall short of the transformative equity mechanisms originally envisioned, reflecting the persistent power imbalances in global health governance.
Unlikely (30-45%): Accelerated Implementation Following New Disease Outbreak
Within the next 9-12 months, a significant new infectious disease outbreak, while not reaching pandemic scale, will create urgency around treaty implementation. This "near-miss" scenario will drive faster ratification processes and increase funding commitments from wealthy nations. Pharmaceutical companies will proactively establish benefit-sharing agreements to demonstrate good faith and avoid potential compulsory measures. The pathogen sharing annex will be completed ahead of schedule with stronger provisions than currently expected. This scenario would represent an unexpected positive outcome driven by the focusing effect of a new health threat, demonstrating how crisis can sometimes accelerate international cooperation. However, it remains unlikely given current geopolitical tensions and resource constraints.
