Climate-Security Nexus: EU Warns of Quadrupling Conflict Risk as NATO Adaptation Plans Falter
EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra has warned that climate change will "quadruple" the likelihood of resource-based conflicts, as senior military staff across Europe actively engage climate officials on operational impacts.
This escalation comes as the Trump administration undermines NATO's climate adaptation plans, having withdrawn from the Paris Agreement for the second time. Europe faces mounting climate pressures with 413,000 people affected by flooding in 2024 and temperatures expected to rise at least 3°C by 2050.
The warning coincides with the EU's struggle to balance €800 billion in RearmEu spending against climate goals, creating structural competition between security and sustainability priorities.
Forecast Scenarios (GCHQ)
Likely (55-75%): EU-NATO Climate Policy Divergence Accelerates
Over 12 months, the gap between EU climate security policies and NATO's Trump-influenced approach will widen significantly. European allies will develop independent climate-military frameworks while the US steps back, potentially establishing bilateral partnerships excluding American participation.
Realistic Possibility (45-55%): Climate-Driven Military Incidents Trigger Policy Acceleration
Within 6-9 months, a major climate-related military operational failure will catalyze dramatic policy changes across European defense establishments, forcing rapid implementation of concrete adaptation measures and emergency climate-military funding.
Unlikely (30-45%): US Returns to Climate-Security Cooperation
In 3-12 months, Trump administration recognizes climate security as strategically essential. This requires overcoming fundamental climate skepticism despite Russia's Arctic advantages and US unpreparedness in the region.
