Syria’s ‘Fresh Start’
On May 14, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Syria's interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh, marking the first direct engagement between U.S. and Syrian leaders in 25 years. This meeting followed Trump's announcement to lift all U.S. sanctions on Syria, a move aimed at facilitating Syria's reconstruction and reintegration into the international community.
Trump urged al-Sharaa to normalize relations with Israel, expel foreign militants, and assume responsibility for ISIS detention centers. Al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda affiliate leader who overthrew Bashar al-Assad's regime in December 2024, has pledged to unify Syria and transition toward inclusive governance, though concerns remain about his Islamist past and the concentration of power under the new interim constitution.
The lifting of sanctions has been welcomed by Syrians and regional allies like Saudi Arabia and Turkey but has drawn criticism from Israel and Iran, highlighting the complex geopolitical implications of this policy shift.
Forecast:
Base Case (60%)
U.S. and Syria cautiously normalize ties, with embassies reopening by 2026. Al-Sharaa gains partial legitimacy but draws scrutiny over past affiliations. Israel maintains military pressure. Gulf states back limited reconstruction. Select U.S. firms reenter the market, though risk remains high. Syrian GDP grows 3–4% annually, centered on urban recovery. Regional dynamics shift modestly toward a Saudi-Turkey-Syria axis. Refugee return is minimal. Public opinion in the U.S. stays divided.
Upside Case (25%)
Sharaa stabilizes governance and holds credible elections. Israel-Syria coordination improves. International bodies recognize his regime. The IMF, World Bank, and Gulf funds inject $30–50 billion. U.S. tech and energy sectors benefit. GDP rises 6–8% annually. Return migration begins. Investor sentiment improves across the region. U.S. foreign policy leans pragmatic, softening ideological barriers.
Downside Case (15%)
Sharaa centralizes power, abuses mount, and resistance resurges. Israel escalates strikes. U.S. Congress halts engagement, sanctions return. Investment stalls. GDP stagnates (<1%). Reconstruction collapses outside regime zones. ISIS reemerges. Regional tension spikes. U.S. credibility weakens. Global investors grow wary of volatile U.S.-led diplomacy.
