Russia's Advance in Northern Ukraine
Russia has intensified its offensive in Ukraine's northern Sumy Oblast, marking a significant escalation on the war's "northern front" after largely ejecting Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast in March 2025. Russian forces have advanced 15 kilometers along the front line and 6-7 kilometers deep into Ukrainian territory, capturing multiple villages and bringing them within 20 kilometers of Sumy city.
President Putin has deployed over 50,000 troops including elite airborne and marine brigades to create his declared "buffer zone," while approximately 55,000 people from over 200 villages have been evacuated or fled since the war began, with 100 additional refugees arriving daily in Sumy. This offensive follows Ukraine's retreat from most of Russia's Kursk Oblast, reversing the strategic gains from Ukraine's August 2024 cross-border incursion. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi recently claimed forces have stabilized the front line, though the situation remains volatile with Sumy's 250,000 pre-war population now under increasing threat.
Forecast Scenarios (GCHQ)
Likely (55-75%): Sumy Becomes Contested Border City
Over the next 6-9 months, Russian forces will likely advance close enough to subject Sumy to regular artillery bombardment, similar to Kherson's current situation. Ukrainian officials acknowledge that if Russians reach within 6-9 miles of Sumy, "artillery systems will terrorize our city," while fighting rages for the strategic village of Yunakivka just 15 miles from the city. Russian forces will probably capture additional border villages but lack the capability for rapid territorial seizure, instead gradually extending their buffer zone through attritional warfare. This scenario involves continued civilian evacuations, infrastructure degradation, and transformation of Sumy into a front-line city with drastically reduced civilian population.
Realistic Possibility (45-55%): Russian Advance Stalls at Current Positions
Ukrainian claims of stabilizing the front line and forming "a special defense group" with improved fortifications may successfully halt Russian progress 15-20 kilometers from Sumy city. Ukrainian defensive preparations, combined with difficult terrain and extended Russian supply lines, could create a stalemate similar to other front sections. Western military aid deliveries and Ukrainian mobilization efforts may provide sufficient resources to maintain defensive positions. This scenario involves continued cross-border raids and artillery exchanges but no major territorial changes, with Sumy remaining under constant threat but avoiding direct assault.
Unlikely (30-45%): Russian Breakthrough Toward Sumy City
Despite deploying 50,000+ troops, Russian forces lack the rapid offensive capability needed for major urban assault operations. The Institute for the Study of War noted that "Russian forces have not shown they can conduct rapid, multidirectional offensive operations" necessary for swift territorial seizure. Capturing Sumy's 250,000 pre-war population would require massive resources currently committed to Donbas operations. Ukrainian defensive advantages in urban terrain, combined with international pressure and potential escalation risks, make a full assault on Sumy city improbable within the next year. This scenario would represent a major strategic shift requiring significant Russian resource reallocation.
