Romania’s Political Reckoning
In Romania's presidential runoff on May 18, 2025, centrist and pro-European Union candidate Nicușor Dan secured a decisive victory over far-right nationalist George Simion, obtaining 53.6% of the vote compared to Simion's 46.4%. Dan, the incumbent mayor of Bucharest, overcame a significant first-round deficit, marking a substantial political shift.
This election followed the annulment of the 2024 vote due to alleged Russian interference, including a TikTok-driven campaign favoring disqualified candidate Călin Georgescu. Dan's triumph is widely interpreted as a reaffirmation of Romania's commitment to European integration and democratic values, countering the rise of populist and pro-Russian sentiments.
The election witnessed a high voter turnout of 64.72%, the most significant in 25 years, reflecting the electorate's engagement in this pivotal decision. International leaders, including France's Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, have extended their congratulations, signaling strong support for Romania's pro-EU trajectory.
Base Scenario – Cautious Progress with Political Instability (60%)
Romania will experience gradual pro-EU progress hindered by persistent political fragmentation. President Nicușor Dan, though elected with a strong mandate, lacks parliamentary backing and must negotiate with rival factions. Key reforms—particularly in anti-corruption and fiscal consolidation—will face resistance, slowing implementation. EU funding continues but is partially undermined by administrative delays. Economic growth stays modest at 2.5–3%, supported by EU inflows, though investor confidence remains cautious. This scenario reflects a status quo path: moderate forward movement tempered by Romania’s long-standing institutional inertia and political volatility.
Upside Scenario – Reform Momentum and EU Convergence (25%)
A more optimistic outcome sees Dan uniting reformist forces and using public support to push structural change. Accelerated judicial and fiscal reforms unlock faster EU fund absorption, and foreign investment rises, especially in energy and tech. Romania could post growth above 4.5%, with inflation easing below 3% by 2026. Institutional credibility improves, and Romania emerges as a stronger player in the EU. Though achievable, this depends on Dan overcoming entrenched interests and building an effective parliamentary coalition—an uphill but not impossible task.
Downside Scenario – Political Fragmentation and Populist Backlash (15%)
Romania could see reform paralysis and a resurgence of populism. If Dan fails to deliver rapid results, public disillusionment could fuel nationalist opposition and trigger early elections. EU funds may be delayed, investor sentiment would weaken, and growth could drop below 2%, with inflation remaining high. This environment could empower far-right figures like George Simion, reigniting democratic backsliding concerns. While less likely in the short term, the risk remains if political gridlock deepens and economic pain accelerates discontent.
