Poland Goes to the Polls
Poland’s upcoming presidential election, scheduled for May 18, 2025, represents a decisive moment in its post-Communist political trajectory. Leading the race is Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw and a prominent figure in Donald Tusk’s pro-European Civic Platform. Trzaskowski commands about 32% support, positioning him ahead of Karol Nawrocki (approx. 26%), a conservative historian backed by the outgoing right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party. A far-right challenger, Sławomir Mentzen, is also gaining ground, polling around 13%.
Should Trzaskowski win, it would break the political deadlock caused by current President Andrzej Duda’s veto power, clearing the path for reforms in judicial independence, EU alignment, and civil liberties. Conversely, a win by Nawrocki or Mentzen could entrench Poland’s nationalist orientation, exacerbating friction with Brussels and slowing foreign investment. The election also holds broader implications for EU stability, regional migration policies, and populist momentum across Central and Eastern Europe.
Markets, EU policymakers, and multinational investors are closely watching the outcome, which is expected to proceed to a June 1 runoff. This vote will determine whether Poland returns firmly to the European mainstream or continues to chart a more isolated, sovereigntist path.
Forecast:
Base Case (50%)
Trzaskowski secures the presidency, aligning with Tusk’s government to implement pro-EU reforms. Judicial independence is restored, and €36 billion in EU recovery funds are unlocked. Investor confidence returns, the złoty strengthens, and Poland reasserts its role within the EU. However, resistance persists in PiS strongholds, and societal divisions remain.
Upside Case (25%)
Trzaskowski wins decisively, providing a strong mandate for comprehensive reforms. Poland rapidly aligns with EU standards, attracting significant foreign investment. GDP growth accelerates to 6–8% annually, and the country becomes a key player in EU policymaking, particularly concerning Eastern Europe and Ukraine.
Downside Case (25%)
Nawrocki or Mentzen wins, halting reform efforts and exacerbating tensions with the EU. EU funds remain frozen, investor confidence wanes, and the złoty depreciates. Poland risks isolation within the EU, aligning with other nationalist governments, and faces increased domestic unrest and economic stagnation.
