Peace for Minerals: The High-Stakes Gamble Behind the DRC–Rwanda Accord
On June 27, 2025, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda signed a landmark U.S.- and Qatar-brokered peace agreement in Washington, aiming to halt decades of conflict in eastern Congo that has displaced over 7 million people and fueled one of the world’s deadliest humanitarian crises.
Under the accord, Rwandan troops are mandated to withdraw from Congolese territory within 90 days, while Kinshasa pledges to disarm and integrate non-state militias through a monitored demobilization process. A critical provision explicitly links peace to economic cooperation: the DRC agreed to deepen collaboration with Western partners, particularly the U.S., in developing its vast mineral reserves—valued at $24 trillion—including cobalt, copper, and lithium essential for green energy technologies. While hailed as a “historic step” by DRC President Félix Tshisekedi, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, and U.S. mediators, the deal faces immediate skepticism due to the exclusion of M23, a major rebel group widely believed to be backed by Kigali.
Observers warn that without inclusive security guarantees and accountability mechanisms, the accord risks becoming another short-lived truce. Nonetheless, the agreement represents the most robust diplomatic intervention in the conflict in over a decade and positions the U.S. as a central broker of Africa’s critical mineral future amid intensifying competition with China.
Base Case: Fragile Implementation with Partial Stabilization (60% Probability)
In this scenario, Rwanda withdraws the majority of its forces within the 90-day timeframe but maintains informal influence over border regions through intelligence operatives and proxy militias. The joint security mechanism is established on paper but remains underfunded and lacks the capacity to enforce disarmament among all armed groups. M23 continues to hold substantial territory in North Kivu, periodically clashing with Congolese forces, but large-scale fighting subsides enough to allow incremental humanitarian access and some infrastructure repairs. Western mining companies, especially U.S.-aligned firms, secure pilot concessions and begin feasibility studies, but serious investment decisions are delayed until the security environment improves further. While the deal reduces headline violence and demonstrates the potential of diplomatic leverage tied to economic incentives, governance weaknesses, limited accountability, and the exclusion of rebel actors constrain its transformative impact. Over the next 12–24 months, the DRC experiences moderate gains in business confidence and aid flows but remains a high-risk operating environment vulnerable to renewed instability.
Upside Case: Comprehensive Peace and Economic Acceleration (20% Probability)
In this optimistic scenario, both governments exceed expectations by fully withdrawing Rwandan troops and jointly pressuring M23 to enter negotiations within six months. The disarmament and reintegration process, backed by substantial U.S. and Qatari funding, incorporates major rebel groups into a credible transitional security framework. The DRC launches judicial processes to prosecute war crimes and initiates reparations programs for victims, improving public trust. A combination of security improvements and regulatory clarity unlocks a surge of Western investment commitments valued in the billions of dollars, including the development of battery metal processing plants in Goma and Bukavu. Regional trade harmonization reduces border clearance times by half, and the improved business climate leads to sustained GDP growth above 6% annually in eastern provinces. Over 100,000 artisanal miners transition into formal employment, and infrastructure projects dramatically improve humanitarian access. This scenario positions the DRC–Rwanda corridor as a critical node in global green supply chains, reshaping both countries’ economic trajectories.
Downside Case: Breakdown and Renewed Conflict (20% Probability)
In this adverse scenario, the peace deal quickly unravels as Rwanda withdraws only a token force while maintaining de facto military control through proxies. M23 exploits the power vacuum to expand territory, displacing thousands of civilians and capturing new mining sites. The joint security coordination body fails to deploy, and trust between Kinshasa and Kigali collapses. International backers—including the U.S.—shift focus to containment rather than stabilization, and investor confidence evaporates. Artisanal mining communities, facing both insecurity and regulatory crackdowns, revolt against state authorities and foreign companies perceived as illegitimate profiteers. Cross-border trade grinds to a halt amid renewed fighting, pushing regional economies into recession. Humanitarian agencies suspend operations in large areas, worsening conditions for over 7 million displaced people. Within 12 months, the region returns to a protracted conflict environment, and the deal becomes a cautionary tale about over-reliance on economic incentives without credible security guarantees or inclusive negotiations.
If you’d like, I can also model multi-year quantitative projections for each scenario.
