Pakistan ows to “Avenge Every Drop of Blood”
On May 7, 2025, Indian armed forces executed a preemptive military campaign—Operation Sindoor—targeting what it claimed were terrorist training camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The strikes, which India attributed to retaliation for the April 22 Pahalgam bombing that killed 26 Hindu tourists, resulted in the deaths of 31 Pakistanis and injured 57 others, including women and children.
In an emotionally charged national address, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the attacks as "naked aggression" and vowed to “avenge every drop of blood.” Pakistan claimed to have downed five Indian jets and has authorized further military responses. The conflict has triggered immediate diplomatic expulsions, the cancellation of existing bilateral agreements, and an escalation of artillery shelling and drone engagements along the Line of Control (LoC). Civilian evacuations are underway in Kashmir and border regions.
The standoff marks the most acute India–Pakistan military confrontation since Kargil (1999), raising concerns over regional stability between two nuclear-armed nations. Global powers including the U.S., China, Turkey, and the U.K. have called for urgent de-escalation, while economic markets in both countries have reacted with volatility amid fears of prolonged conflict.
Forecast Scenarios:
Base Case – 55% Probability
Controlled Escalation Leading to Diplomatic Ceasefire
Skirmishes and retaliatory strikes continue for several weeks, including drone incursions and limited airspace violations. Neither side seeks full-scale war but both use force to maintain political posture. Civilian evacuations expand. Under international pressure—particularly from China, the U.S., and Gulf states—a ceasefire is brokered by mid-June. Diplomatic ties remain severed, but open war is avoided.
Strategic Outlook: Tensions linger for months, investor caution persists, and budgets skew heavily toward defense. Talks may resume in late 2025 via Track-II diplomacy.
Upside Case – 15% Probability
Rapid Diplomatic De-escalation
Both countries, wary of global condemnation and economic cost, engage in backchannel diplomacy within 7–10 days. A hotline is reactivated, and attacks are halted through third-party mediation (possibly from Turkey or UAE). Consular staff return, and trade is partially restored. Markets recover quickly.
Strategic Outlook: Temporary thaw allows for talks on Kashmir stabilization and anti-terror cooperation, though deep mistrust persists.
Downside Case – 30% Probability
Limited Conventional War
A miscalculation or high-casualty retaliatory strike (e.g., on a military base or civilian target) escalates conflict into a full-fledged conventional war. Sustained air and ground operations occur across multiple sectors. Cyberattacks disrupt national infrastructure. International shipping and oil prices spike. Refugee numbers surge beyond 500,000 if cities are targeted.
Strategic Outlook: Long-term destabilization of South Asia, risk of global supply chain disruption, and expanded foreign military presence for crisis management.
