Killing of Dissident Reignites Protests in Kenya
On June 13, 2025, Kenyan authorities arrested a police constable for the killing of Albert Omondi Ojwang, a 31-year-old teacher and political blogger who died in police custody. Ojwang, who was arrested on June 6 for allegedly defaming Deputy Inspector General Eliud Lagat, had used his social media platforms to publicly accuse senior police officials of corruption. His death on June 8, initially attributed by police to self-inflicted injuries, was contradicted by an autopsy that found head trauma, neck compression, and multiple soft-tissue injuries, prompting allegations of custodial abuse.
Ojwang’s death sparked nationwide protests, with demonstrators gathering in Nairobi and other cities, coinciding with the presentation of Kenya’s 2025–2026 national budget. Protesters carried signs denouncing police brutality and called for accountability, using slogans such as “No justice, no budget.” These demonstrations followed a broader wave of unrest tied to proposed finance legislation and concerns over civil liberties. The protests echo those of mid-2024, when anti-tax demonstrations led to over 60 deaths.
This custodial death, alongside ongoing economic pressures, has intensified public scrutiny of the government’s treatment of dissent. The Ruto administration’s response, including a public reversal of the initial police statement, reflects heightened political sensitivity to public mobilization. Investigations into the case continue amid broader calls for police reform and judicial accountability.
Base Case – Controlled Accountability, Sustained Tensions (60% Likelihood)
The government prosecutes a few mid-level officers while shielding top leadership, including Deputy IG Eliud Lagat, from legal consequences. Investigations led by IPOA proceed visibly, but without systemic institutional changes. Public protests gradually lose momentum but continue in pockets, particularly around civic groups and digital activists. International partners, while concerned, maintain diplomatic engagement and conditional funding. The government stabilizes politically, though mistrust remains high. The national budget passes with minor disruptions, and fiscal planning resumes normal pace. Markets remain steady, though cautious, especially regarding governance-related investments.
Upside Case – Transparent Reform and Restored Credibility (25% Likelihood)
The investigation leads to full judicial transparency, with credible prosecutions including high-ranking officers. President Ruto uses the crisis to initiate structural police reforms, restoring some public trust and strengthening civil society dialogue. International praise boosts Kenya’s diplomatic image, unlocking new donor funds and improving risk assessments among foreign investors. Civil unrest subsides quickly, budget proceedings integrate oversight improvements, and governance institutions see enhanced legitimacy. Economic outlook improves on the back of restored consumer confidence and better institutional performance.
Downside Case – Impunity and Escalating Instability (15% Likelihood)
The process is widely viewed as a cover-up. Key actors avoid prosecution, igniting broader unrest across Nairobi, Homa Bay, and other regions. Protests turn more confrontational, prompting a harsher government response and widespread condemnation. The U.S. and EU reconsider aid and public statements escalate. Investor confidence falters, with potential capital outflows and paused development projects. Budget approval faces delays due to disruption, and spending shifts toward heightened security. Economic activity slows in affected areas, and Kenya’s governance credibility takes a long-term hit.
