Kenya's Protest Crackdown
Kenya faces renewed mass protests as police killed at least 16 demonstrators on June 25, 2025—exactly one year after protesters stormed parliament and 5 people died.
The violence echoes 2024’s uprising when 60 people were killed by year-end during anti-government demonstrations led predominantly by young Kenyans. President William Ruto, elected in 2022 promising to help “ordinary people,” faces mounting anger over increased taxation, police brutality, and authoritarian governance. Currently, 80 young activists remain missing, allegedly kidnapped by state actors, while the recent police custody murder of blogger Albert Ojwang sparked renewed protests. The government employs “enforced disappearances” as a control mechanism, with journalists and activists facing arbitrary detention for critical coverage. Three police officers and three civilians face murder charges in Ojwang’s case—the first accountability effort in recent memory. Kenya’s debt burden forces unpopular tax increases, creating social tensions that manifest in youth-led resistance movements using social media and humor to combat state intimidation. Regional patterns emerge as Tanzania and Uganda similarly employ kidnapping and torture against government critics, with cross-border coordination evident in recent arrests of Kenyan and Ugandan activists in Dar es Salaam.
The protests represent generational resistance against corruption and authoritarianism, with participants creating viral content about potential death during demonstrations, demonstrating remarkable courage amid escalating state violence.
Forecast Scenarios (GCQH)
Likely (60%): Sustained Low-Level Conflict with Periodic Escalation
Protests continue intermittently over the next 12-18 months with periodic violent crackdowns resulting in 5-10 deaths monthly. Government maintains power through repression while failing to address underlying economic grievances. International pressure increases but remains insufficient to force significant policy changes. Youth movement adapts tactics but cannot achieve immediate political change, creating prolonged instability cycle.
Realistic Possibility (45%): Regime Change Through Sustained Pressure
Protest momentum builds over 6-12 months, forcing Ruto’s resignation or early elections by 2026. International sanctions and donor pressure combine with domestic resistance to make governance unsustainable. Military intervention possibilities emerge if civilian government collapses, potentially creating transitional arrangement leading to new leadership with reform mandates.
Unlikely (25%): Successful Government Consolidation Through Repression
Government successfully suppresses protest movement through systematic violence and intimidation within 6 months. Mass arrests and continued disappearances break resistance networks, while economic improvements reduce grievances. Regional support for authoritarian governance models enables sustained repression, but long-term stability remains questionable due to unresolved structural issues.
