Italy's Strange Referendums
Italy's opposition suffered a decisive political defeat on June 9, 2025, when five referendums failed due to insufficient turnout, despite achieving majority "Yes" votes on all proposals.
Only 30% of eligible voters participated, well below the constitutional 50%+ quorum required for validity. The failed measures included reducing citizenship residency requirements from 10 to 5 years (affecting 2.5 million foreign residents) and reversing labor market liberalizations from the Jobs Act. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government actively encouraged abstention, with Meloni herself visiting polling stations but refusing to vote. This strategic boycott delivered a crushing blow to the CGIL trade union and center-left opposition parties who had collected over 4 million signatures to force these votes.
The outcome strengthens Meloni's political position while exposing the opposition's inability to mobilize voters, with some government officials joking that Meloni could remain in power for "ten more years."
Forecast Scenarios (GCHQ)
Likely (65-75%): Meloni Maintains Power Through 2027
The referendum victory significantly strengthens Meloni's political position, making successful opposition challenges before the next scheduled elections unlikely. Her government's strategic competence and opposition weakness suggest continued dominance through the current parliamentary term.
Realistic Possibility (45-55%): Constitutional Reform Debates Within 18 Months
The referendum failure may trigger discussions about modifying Italy's 50% quorum requirement for abrogative referendums. Political analysts increasingly argue the threshold enables minority rule through abstention, potentially leading to constitutional convention discussions.
Unlikely (20-30%): Opposition Recovery Before 2026
The center-left's inability to mobilize voters on popular issues suggests fundamental organizational problems unlikely to resolve quickly. Leadership changes within major opposition parties may occur, but rebuilding credible alternatives to Meloni requires sustained effort beyond the next electoral cycle.
