Israel Attacks Iran
Israel launched a comprehensive military operation against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure on June 13, 2025, marking a dramatic escalation that could reshape Middle East geopolitics. The strikes targeted Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, ballistic missile factories, and military command centers, killing major Iranian leaders including Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hossein Salami.
Netanyahu announced this would be a prolonged operation to eliminate what he called “a clear and present danger to Israel’s very survival,” effectively ending Trump’s diplomatic efforts with Tehran. The US was not involved in the unilateral Israeli action. Iran has threatened massive retaliation with hundreds of ballistic missiles, potentially overwhelming Israel’s defenses. This attack fundamentally alters regional security dynamics and threatens to trigger a broader Middle Eastern conflict.
Forecast Scenarios
Likely (55-75%): Limited Iranian Retaliation
Iran launches targeted missile strikes against Israeli military facilities within 72 hours while avoiding massive civilian casualties. Tehran uses its ballistic missile arsenal strategically, testing Israeli defenses without crossing red lines. Regional proxies increase harassment but stop short of full-scale conflict. International diplomatic pressure helps contain conflict within 2-3 weeks. Oil prices spike 15-20% initially before stabilizing.
Realistic Possibility (45-55%): Escalating Regional Conflict
Iranian retaliation triggers broader regional conflict as Hezbollah breaks ceasefire and Houthis resume Red Sea attacks. Multiple front warfare overwhelms Israeli resources and draws in US military support. Conflict expands over 6-9 months with sustained high oil prices ($90-110/barrel) and potential global recession.
Unlikely (30-45%): Nuclear Acceleration Crisis
Iran withdraws from all nuclear agreements and begins rapid enrichment to weapons-grade uranium within 30-60 days. Tehran leverages advanced centrifuge technology to achieve weapons capability, triggering international nuclear crisis. Global markets experience severe disruption with oil reaching $120-150/barrel and widespread supply chain collapse.
