The first quarter of 2025 has witnessed a significant 33% decline in irregular migration to Europe compared to the same period in 2024, with Frontex registering only 33,600 irregular border crossings between January and March. This substantial decrease spans all major migration routes, with the Westbalkan route experiencing the steepest decline of 64%.

Three key developments have contributed to this shift: the fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024, which has altered Syrian migration patterns with over 1 million Syrians returning home; the aftermath of UN peacekeeping withdrawal from Mali in late 2023, which initially sparked refugee movements but has since stabilized; and the strengthening of the 2023 EU-Tunisia migration agreement, which has drastically cut irregular crossings from North Africa through enhanced border enforcement and visa reforms.

These developments have reshaped migration patterns, with notable impacts on both eastern and western European borders, while also revealing emerging trends such as increased migration from Bangladesh despite overall reductions across most routes.