Internal Dissent Increasing in Gaza and Israel
The third consecutive day of rare anti-Hamas protests in southern Gaza highlights a dramatic shift in public sentiment, as growing numbers of Palestinians openly defy the group’s authoritarian grip. With chants like “All of Hamas, out!” and “We want to eat,” the demonstrations—centered in areas like Khan Younis—reflect despair over dire humanitarian conditions and Hamas’s perceived inability to govern effectively during war. Protesters have reportedly faced threats and violence from Hamas security forces, but the unrest continues, revealing cracks in the group’s social control and public legitimacy.
Simultaneously, disillusionment is mounting within Israel, both among the public and political establishment. Former IDF deputy commander Yair Golan warned that Israel is becoming a “pariah state” akin to apartheid-era South Africa if it continues its current trajectory. Though dismissed by hardliners, Golan’s remarks reflect a wider reckoning within Israeli society. On Sunday, around 500 Israeli protesters, many wearing shirts saying “Stop the horrors in Gaza” and carrying images of children killed in airstrikes, attempted to march from Sderot to the Gaza border to protest the military’s renewed offensive. These demonstrations, involving both left-wing activists and concerned civilians, point to growing unease—not just from traditional peace advocates but also from moderates—about the government’s military strategy and Israel’s deteriorating global reputation.
Forecast Scenario:
Base Case Scenario – 60%: Prolonged Stalemate with Rising Dissent
Gaza: Protests continue intermittently despite repression. Hamas retains control but becomes more isolated and internally destabilized.
Israel: Opposition within Israeli society grows but fails to shift government policy in the short term. Civilian protests increase modestly, especially near conflict zones.
International: Diplomatic pressure intensifies, with further trade suspensions or UN resolutions, but no binding multilateral action occurs.
Key Traits: Status quo persists; legitimacy erodes on both sides; humanitarian crisis worsens but leadership remains intact.
Upside Scenario – 20%: Ceasefire and Political Decompression
Gaza: Under combined internal and international pressure, Hamas agrees to a ceasefire or transitional governance framework with external mediation.
Israel: Domestic pressure leads to a pause in major operations; government faces mounting calls for elections or policy review.
International: Aid delivery resumes; diplomatic engagement with moderate Palestinian factions increases.
Key Traits: Relative de-escalation; potential openings for long-term political realignment or reform.
Downside Scenario – 20%: Escalation and Regime Entrenchment
Gaza: Protests are violently crushed; Hamas intensifies surveillance and repression, using the conflict to justify a clampdown.
Israel: Nationalist hardliners consolidate power, pushing further offensives. Pro-peace activists face crackdowns or marginalization.
International: Israel faces harsher diplomatic fallout, including new sanctions, legal challenges at the ICC, or regional tensions.
Key Traits: Hardline consolidation; humanitarian and diplomatic crises deepen; reformist voices sidelined.
