India's Offensive in Pakistan and the Unfolding Strategic Fallout
On May 6, 2025, India launched "Operation Sindoor," a series of precision missile strikes targeting nine sites across Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The operation aimed at dismantling terrorist infrastructure linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad, groups India holds responsible for the April 22 Pahalgam attack, where 28 civilians, predominantly Hindu tourists, were killed in Indian-administered Kashmir.
India's Ministry of Defence emphasized that the strikes were "focused, measured, and non-escalatory," deliberately avoiding Pakistani military installations. In response, Pakistan reported eight civilian deaths and 35 injuries, and claimed it had successfully shot down five Indian aircraft during the exchange.
In the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a critical water-sharing agreement since 1960, and expelled Pakistani diplomats. Both nations, armed with nuclear capabilities, have since closed their airspace to each other's aircraft, leading to significant disruptions in regional aviation.
Scenario Analysis
Base Case – Sustained Confrontation (60%)
Tensions remain high but short of full-scale war. India and Pakistan engage in limited border skirmishes, cyber operations, and hostile rhetoric. Formal diplomatic channels stay frozen through 2025. This reflects patterns seen after the 2016 Uri and 2019 Pulwama incidents, where controlled escalation served domestic political ends without tipping into war.
Upside Case – Quiet De-escalation (25%)
Through backchannel mediation—potentially led by the UAE, U.S., or China—both sides agree to partial normalization. Airspace is reopened, and some consular functions resume. While formal trade remains suspended, military activity de-escalates by mid-2025. This outcome depends on domestic electoral stability and international pressure.
Downside Case – Escalation into Limited Conflict (15%)
Pakistan responds to the Indian strikes with retaliatory action or allows proxy groups to escalate cross-border attacks. A miscalculation or high-casualty event prompts a broader Indian military response. A multi-day conventional conflict ensues, with risks to civilian infrastructure and cyberattacks on power grids. Despite nuclear deterrence, history shows accidental war is possible under high tensions.
