Illegal Gold Mining in South America
Latin America’s criminal organizations are increasingly shifting from drug trafficking to illegal gold mining, which has now surpassed narcotics as the primary revenue source for many groups. This shift is particularly visible in Colombia, Peru, Brazil, and Venezuela, where cartels, insurgent groups, and hybrid criminal-political networks control vast mining territories. Soaring gold prices—peaking at over $3,000 per ounce—combined with high demand and weak regulatory oversight have made illicit gold a safer and more profitable venture than cocaine.
The consequences are profound. Illegal mining is driving rampant violence, including massacres of artisanal miners in Peru, territorial clashes between armed factions in Colombia’s Amazon, and violent evictions of indigenous communities across the Brazilian rainforest. Environmental degradation is reaching catastrophic levels, with widespread deforestation and mercury contamination. These operations are fueling corruption, financing arms and insurgency, and undermining national sovereignty.
Governments have responded with militarized crackdowns and legislative action, but enforcement remains inconsistent. Without strong international cooperation on supply chain transparency and economic development alternatives, the trade is likely to expand further,
Forecast Scenario (2025–2027)
Base Case – 60% Probability
Illegal gold remains the dominant revenue source for Latin American criminal networks. Despite intermittent crackdowns, enforcement is patchy, and corruption continues to hamper efforts. Violence persists in contested mining zones, and illicit gold continues to flow into global markets via complicit intermediaries.
Upside Case – 20% Probability
Sustained international pressure leads to enhanced gold traceability, sanctions on refineries accepting unverified sources, and investment in alternative livelihoods for mining communities. Regional cooperation improves, resulting in a measurable reduction in illicit mining activities and associated violence.
Downside Case – 20% Probability
Illegal gold operations expand further across Latin America. Criminal groups diversify into other resource crimes, leading to a surge in regional instability, deforestation, and violence. State control deteriorates in key resource-rich zones, and the trade becomes more embedded in global supply chains due to laundering sophistication.
