G7 Kicks off in Alberta
The 51st G7 Summit, held on June 16–17, 2025, in Kananaskis, Alberta, unfolds at a moment of overlapping global crises and shifting leadership dynamics. The summit brings together G7 core members: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney (host), U.S. President Donald Trump, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and EU leaders Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa. Four of these leaders are attending their first G7, while Donald Trump returns to the forum for the first time since 2019, bringing a more assertive, confrontational approach to trade, defense, and diplomacy.
In a significant move to globalize the G7’s scope, Canada invited a wide range of non-G7 leaders: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, President Lee Jae-myung of South Korea, and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia. The UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed is also attending, while Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman is notably absent. Key international organizations are represented by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, UN Secretary-General António Guterres, and World Bank President Ajay Banga.
The summit’s agenda is dense, addressing the Israel-Iran crisis, Ukraine’s defense needs, global inflation, AI governance, climate commitments, and controversial U.S. tariffs—some of which Trump has suspended for 90 days amid backlash. Breaking with tradition, Carney has opted against a joint communiqué, choosing instead to release thematic chair summaries. This strategic adjustment aims to avoid the kind of discord that marred previous summits during Trump’s presidency and reflects a broader trend toward modular, bilateral diplomacy within multilateral settings.
Base Case – 60% Probability: Managed Disunity with Select Progress
In the most likely outcome, the G7 summit avoids major public confrontations but also falls short of any sweeping breakthroughs. Leaders manage to keep disagreements behind closed doors, particularly with Trump, whose volatile presence remains the central challenge. Thematic chair statements replace a joint communiqué, helping the group maintain a sense of coherence. Ukraine receives renewed, if not expanded, support, and there is cautious alignment on containing the Israel-Iran conflict. The U.S. tariff pause holds, but no resolution is reached. Overall, the G7 survives the summit without crisis, but its authority and unity appear increasingly fragile.
Upside Case – 20% Probability: Surprising Cohesion via Quiet Deals
In a more optimistic scenario, the summit yields unexpected cooperation. Trump chooses pragmatism, extending the tariff pause and signaling willingness to negotiate. Behind the scenes, leaders align on new funding mechanisms for Ukraine and issue a clear, though diplomatic, stance on Middle East de-escalation. Mark Carney’s soft-power strategy proves effective, and new leaders build credibility through constructive engagement. The summit restores some confidence in G7 coordination and boosts investor sentiment. While no sweeping reforms emerge, the optics and tone mark a turning point toward greater alignment.
Downside Case – 20% Probability: Disruption and Diplomatic Breakdown
The most negative scenario sees Trump derail the summit—possibly by revoking the tariff pause, escalating rhetorical attacks on allies, or obstructing any unified response on Ukraine or the Middle East. The absence of a joint communiqué becomes a symbol of deeper fracture. Tensions may spill into public pressers, with leaders like Macron or Zelenskyy voicing frustration. Some invited non-G7 leaders may question the relevance of the forum. Markets react with increased volatility, and the summit ends with weakened institutional credibility and a deepened sense of geopolitical fragmentation.
