"Funeral Diplomacy": How Pope Francis's Funeral Creates Unprecedented Diplomatic Opportunities
The death of Pope Francis has triggered what Swiss ex-diplomat Thomas Borer describes as "the most important non-institutional meeting of world leaders" of recent times. With representatives from major powers including Trump, Zelensky, Macron, and von der Leyen converging on Rome, the funeral represents a rare diplomatic opportunity amid several major global tensions.
Similar to the 2005 "burial diplomacy" during Pope John Paul II's funeral, this gathering creates space for informal interactions between leaders otherwise unlikely to meet. The timing is particularly significant as it coincides with critical negotiations on US-EU trade relations, the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, and shifting global energy security dynamics.
With representatives from 138 countries expected to attend, this solemn occasion may become the backdrop for diplomatic breakthroughs on issues that have profound political, financial, and economic implications for global stability.
Forecast Scenarios
Almost Certain (90-100%): Enhanced Bilateral Communications
World leaders will establish or re-establish direct communication channels during the funeral proceedings, leading to increased diplomatic interactions in the following month. This is supported by historical precedents from similar gatherings and confirmed preparations for sideline meetings between key figures.
Likely (55-75%): Temporary Softening of US-EU Trade Tensions
The funeral diplomacy will result in a temporary easing of US-EU trade tensions, with an extension of the tariff truce by at least 60 days. This is supported by reports of von der Leyen's planned meeting with Trump and the political necessity for both sides to demonstrate progress.
Realistic Possibility (45-55%): Breakthrough in Ukraine Conflict Framework
A framework for new peace talks on Ukraine could emerge from sideline meetings, potentially involving informal US-Ukraine-EU coordination. This is supported by Zelensky's explicit desire to meet Trump and increasing war fatigue reported in Ukraine.
Thursday, April 24, 2025
