From Port Deals to Proxy Wars: The UAE’s Gamble for Regional Power
The UAE has emerged as a divisive actor in the Middle East despite promoting tolerance domestically. The nation faces genocide accusations at the International Court of Justice for arming Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a militia responsible for widespread atrocities.
This case exemplifies the UAE's broader strategy of backing militias across the region that seek to either take control of states by force or divide them. Unlike Saudi Arabia, which prioritizes regional stability, the UAE pursues an ideologically driven foreign policy aimed at countering Islamist influence, curbing Qatar and Turkey's regional roles, and establishing its own sphere of influence distinct from Saudi Arabia's.
This approach has yielded limited success and increasingly damages the UAE's international reputation, with potential diplomatic and economic consequences looming on the horizon.
Forecast Scenarios
Scenario 1: Tactical Retrenchment Likely (55-75%)
Within 6-9 months, the UAE will gradually reduce visible support for militias like the RSF while maintaining relationships through more discreet channels. This shift will be driven by mounting international pressure and the demonstrated ineffectiveness of its current approach. Trigger points include further congressional action in Washington or explicit warnings from the Biden administration.
Scenario 2: Strategic Partnership Realignment Realistic Possibility (45-55%)
Within 3-6 months, the UAE will seek to repair relations with Saudi Arabia and align more closely with its stability-focused regional approach. This scenario is supported by the clear failure of the UAE's independent militia strategy in Sudan and Libya, where UAE-backed forces have recently suffered significant setbacks. Economic considerations and the need for a united Gulf front against Iran will drive this realignment.
Scenario 3: Sanctions Impact Unlikely (30-45%)
Within 6-12 months, the UAE will face targeted Western sanctions affecting specific sectors or individuals involved in militia support. This scenario, while discussed in Washington, remains unlikely due to the UAE's strategic importance and extensive economic ties with Western economies. However, continued evidence of atrocities committed by UAE-backed forces could accelerate this timeline, particularly if documented by UN investigators.
Scenario 4: Policy Continuation Despite Setbacks Realistic Possibility (45-55%)
For the next 3-12 months, the UAE maintains its current approach despite setbacks, calculating that Western attention will shift elsewhere and that long-term influence building requires persistence through initial failures. This scenario is supported by historical patterns of UAE behavior and the deeply ideological nature of its anti-Islamist stance.
Thursday, April 17, 2025
