France and Indonesia Deepen Strategic Cooperation
French President Emmanuel Macron’s May 27 2025 state visit to Indonesia marked a new phase in the two countries’ relationship, focused on long-term cooperation in clean energy, infrastructure, and regional security. Rather than spotlighting military hardware or past defense contracts, the visit emphasized shared economic priorities and mutual strategic interests—particularly in the global race for electric vehicle (EV) battery production.
At the heart of the trip was a new agreement between French mining company Eramet and Indonesian sovereign wealth funds Danantara and the Indonesia Investment Authority (INA). The deal will fund the development of a full nickel-to-battery supply chain in Indonesia. This includes mining, processing, and manufacturing, with an emphasis on environmental sustainability and local job creation. The project aims to give France secure access to critical raw materials while positioning Indonesia as a major global hub for EV battery production.
Other agreements covered maritime security, port modernization, and educational exchanges, showing France’s broader interest in contributing to Indonesia’s development across sectors. The visit also touched on global diplomacy, with both countries expressing support for a two-state solution in the Israel-Palestine conflict. Macron’s visit was part of a broader Southeast Asia tour aimed at positioning France as a dependable partner in a region increasingly shaped by U.S.-China rivalry.
Forecast Scenario: France–Indonesia Strategic Partnership Post-May 2025
Base Case – 60% Likelihood
France and Indonesia gradually build out the frameworks agreed during Macron’s visit. The nickel-to-battery supply chain progresses in phases, joint maritime and port initiatives begin implementation, and cultural and educational exchanges expand. Political relations remain stable, and the partnership gains recognition as a model for middle-power cooperation outside the U.S.-China rivalry. Both countries make steady, measurable gains across energy, security, and economic fronts, though results materialize gradually.
Upside Scenario – 25% Likelihood
The partnership scales faster and deeper. Major French firms invest in Indonesia’s green economy, port modernization accelerates, and vocational cooperation delivers a new wave of skilled workers. Indonesia attracts more European capital, positioning itself as Southeast Asia’s clean energy and logistics hub. France strengthens its Indo-Pacific leadership, and the bilateral model shapes broader EU-ASEAN engagement. Strategic autonomy for both partners increases visibly.
Downside Scenario – 15% Likelihood
Momentum stalls. Delays in project delivery, policy shifts, or external crises reduce focus and funding. Nickel prices fall or face market saturation, maritime projects slow, and France pivots attention elsewhere. Indonesia reverts to traditional partners for critical investment. The visit is remembered as symbolically important, but with limited tangible outcomes.
