Donald Trump’s Private Gulf Deals
Eric Trump has finalized a series of high-profile business deals in the Gulf region on behalf of the Trump Organization, just days before President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit. Central to this expansion is a newly announced luxury real estate project in Qatar, developed in partnership with Qatari Diar—a state-owned entity—and Saudi-listed Dar Global.
The deal includes Trump-branded villas and an international golf club in a $5.5 billion resort district near Doha. Simultaneously, the Trump Organization unveiled plans for an 80-story Trump International Hotel and Tower in Dubai, further cementing the family’s business resurgence in the Middle East. These deals mark the organization’s most ambitious foreign expansion since Trump’s return to office and have triggered ethical concerns due to the involvement of foreign state-linked companies.
The proximity of these deals to the president’s upcoming Gulf visit raises questions about potential overlaps between U.S. foreign policy and private business interests, fueling debate over conflicts of interest and executive accountability.
Secondary Effects
Impact on U.S. Foreign Policy: The intertwining of presidential business interests with foreign governments may influence U.S. foreign policy decisions, potentially prioritizing personal gains over national interests.
Investor Confidence: While the Trump Organization's expansion may attract investors seeking to capitalize on the brand's prestige, ongoing ethical controversies could deter stakeholders wary of reputational risks.
Long-Term Business Strategy: The Trump family's focus on the Gulf region suggests a strategic shift towards markets with favorable regulatory environments and strong economic growth, potentially influencing the organization's global business approach.
Public Perception: The convergence of political power and private enterprise may erode public trust in the administration's commitment to ethical governance, impacting the president's approval ratings and legacy.
Forecast
Base Case Scenario (45% probability)
2–3 Gulf projects are completed or near completion.
Organization generates $500–$750 million in revenue from the region.
Ethical concerns persist but are normalized, with long-term business strategy leaning increasingly on markets with looser oversight.
Downside Case Scenario (30% probability)
One or more projects delayed, downsized, or canceled.
Investigations spur potential legislative pushback or legal challenges.
Trump Organization’s reputation suffers in both political and commercial domains, leading to a retrenchment from overseas ventures.
Upside Scenario (25% probability)
Trump Organization secures additional deals in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
Cumulative revenues from Gulf projects top $1.5 billion.
Brand prestige in emerging markets grows, creating a global halo effect.
U.S. foreign policy sees limited friction, helping manage any international backlash.
