DOJ Seeks to Dismantle Google Search
The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has entered the remedies phase of its antitrust battle with Google, recommending a forced divestiture of Chrome, and potentially Android, to unwind what the government calls an illegal monopoly in search. Chrome drives 35% of Google’s search traffic, and exclusive deals—like the $20 billion per year paid to Apple for default search placement—are under scrutiny.
The DOJ’s remedies aim to restore competition, though Google claims this will increase costs, degrade user experience, and reduce innovation. This case could significantly shift how U.S. regulators intervene in Big Tech, and the decision may shape the global regulatory landscape. Below are downstream forecasts based on three potential outcome paths.
Forecast Scenarios
Base Case Scenario (Behavioral Remedies Only)
What Happens: Google is barred from exclusive deals and must license search data but retains ownership of Chrome and Android.
Outcome: Modest increase in competition. Bing, Brave, and other alternatives gain some traction. Alphabet weathers financial impact with a 5–7% valuation dip.
Long-Term Signal: Regulatory era begins, but without deep structural precedent.
Upside Scenario (Structural Breakup Enforced)
What Happens: Chrome and potentially Android are spun off; exclusivity banned outright.
Outcome: Google's control over search weakens. Competitors scale up. Alphabet's valuation drops 10–15%, but broader innovation and consumer choice surge.
Long-Term Signal: Sets a bold precedent—invites similar antitrust actions against Meta, Amazon, and Apple globally.
Downside Scenario (Google Prevails)
What Happens: Judge rejects or weakens DOJ proposals; minimal changes.
Outcome: Google retains full control. Alphabet stock surges. Competitors stagnate, and venture capital shifts away from competitive search or browser investments.
Long-Term Signal: Regulatory momentum fizzles; tech consolidation continues.
Tuesday, April 22, 2025
