Damming Diplomacy: China’s Power Play on the Brahmaputra
China has officially commenced construction on the world’s largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, near the Indian border. Spearheaded by the state-backed China Yajiang Group, this ¥1.2 trillion (US$167 billion) project aims to generate 300 billion kWh annually, tripling the output of the Three Gorges Dam.
The dam will be built in the geologically unstable and ecologically rich Medog region, where the river drops nearly 2,000 meters over 50 kilometers. While China frames the project as a green energy initiative aligned with its climate goals and a solution to Tibet’s economic stagnation, the endeavor raises serious geopolitical, environmental, and social concerns. India and Bangladesh fear downstream water disruptions, while ecologists warn of habitat loss and seismic risks.
Beyond electricity, the project represents China’s strategic ambition to control transboundary river systems, potentially redrawing regional water diplomacy.
Scenario Forecast for China's Yarlung Tsangpo Dam Project
Base Case: Strategic Success with Regional Tensions (60%)
In the most probable scenario, the Yarlung Tsangpo dam project is completed largely on schedule—achieving phased operational status by 2030 and full capacity by 2035. China successfully manages the immense engineering challenges of the Medog gorge, mitigating seismic and logistical risks through existing megaproject experience and central political control. Power output reaches near the projected 300 billion kWh/year, significantly advancing China's renewable energy goals and contributing to national decarbonization targets. Economically, the project stimulates Tibetan GDP and offers modest regional employment. However, India and Bangladesh maintain deep skepticism over Beijing’s water intentions. Diplomatic friction intensifies but stops short of confrontation. India accelerates its own upstream dam construction in Arunachal Pradesh, and multilateral water-sharing frameworks remain stalled. The project boosts China’s internal energy capacity but deepens cross-border mistrust, especially during future droughts or border tensions.
Upside Case: Diplomatic Breakthrough and Climate Leadership (20%)
In a more optimistic trajectory, China uses the project as a platform for transparent regional water diplomacy. Beijing engages in real-time hydrological data sharing and codifies legally binding flow guarantees to India and Bangladesh. These moves rebuild trust, leading to trilateral water cooperation and even joint investment in downstream flood mitigation and irrigation tech. Engineering success is paired with ecological sensitivity—advanced sediment bypass systems and seismic safeguards are deployed effectively, reducing environmental damage. Tibet sees long-term benefits as surplus electricity spurs industrial diversification, and local communities are meaningfully included in relocation and planning efforts. On the global stage, China leverages the dam’s scale and clean energy output to boost its credibility as a climate leader, particularly in contrast to fossil-dependent economies. This scenario, though desirable, is less likely due to entrenched geopolitical rivalries, lack of regional trust mechanisms, and China’s domestic governance style.
Downside Case: Engineering Setbacks and Regional Instability (20%)
In the adverse scenario, the dam faces serious construction delays due to extreme terrain, landslides, and seismic activity. Accidents or structural issues lead to cost overruns beyond the current ¥1.2 trillion estimate. The Chinese government presses ahead regardless, but public discontent rises in Tibet over displacement and cultural site destruction. Ecological impacts multiply: sediment flow disruption affects agriculture in India and Bangladesh, while reservoir-triggered seismicity causes localized disasters. Amid ongoing border disputes, India interprets reduced Brahmaputra flows as a strategic threat, prompting diplomatic escalation and rapid militarization along the LAC. Bangladesh experiences water scarcity and crop failures, adding to political volatility in Dhaka. Global environmental groups amplify scrutiny, pushing for sanctions on Chinese hydropower technology exports. The dam becomes a cautionary tale—showcasing how unilateral megaprojects in fragile ecosystems can destabilize entire regions. This scenario remains less likely, but the consequences would be far-reaching.
