Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine
France and the UK have announced plans to dispatch military representatives to Ukraine to prepare for a potential peacekeeping operation, despite resistance from allies like Germany. This development emerged during a summit in Paris attended by 31 countries supporting Ukraine.
French President Emmanuel Macron clarified that these forces wouldn't serve as traditional peacekeepers but would be strategically positioned to deter Russian aggression. The coalition also unanimously opposed lifting sanctions against Russia, rejecting Moscow's demands that sanctions relief precede any ceasefire agreement.
This represents a significant escalation in Western military involvement but also highlights growing divisions among NATO allies on Ukraine strategy.
Will it work?
Base Case
Limited military presence established by France/UK with advisory functions only. Sanctions remain in place. Negotiations continue without major breakthrough. European economies absorb additional defense spending with minimal growth impact.
Upside Case
Deterrent effect of Western military presence contributes to stability along contact lines. Partial sanctions relief possible by Q4 2025 if ceasefire holds. European unity strengthens through coordinated policy approach.
Downside Case
Direct incident involving Western military personnel triggers escalation. Additional Russian economic countermeasures target European energy supplies. Coalition fragments over appropriate response, weakening Ukraine's negotiating position. NATO image also deteriorates as divisions within the alliance strain the partnership.
Friday, March 28, 2025
