China Enforces “Whole-Chain” Oversight of Critical Minerals
Chinese authorities have begun enforcing strict “whole-chain” oversight of strategic mineral exports, targeting illegal mining and non-compliant exporters in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Guizhou, and Hunan provinces. This initiative stems from a central government directive issued in early 2025 aimed at enhancing national control over critical resources essential to sectors such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, and defense manufacturing.
According to China's General Administration of Customs, antimony exports dropped by 57%, while germanium exports declined 39% year-over-year in Q1 2025. Enforcement actions have included the closure of 23 illegal rare earth operations in Guangxi alone. Concurrently, the 2025 export quota for rare earth minerals was reduced by 15%, now capped at 35,000 metric tons, compared to 41,000 tons in 2024. These reductions are contributing to upward price pressure in international markets and heightened volatility among raw materials producers.
The regulatory shift aligns with rising geopolitical tensions, especially as the U.S. and EU intensify efforts to diversify mineral sourcing. It also marks a continuation of China’s broader industrial policy aimed at consolidating mineral production, enforcing environmental compliance, and leveraging strategic resources amid global supply chain realignments.
Forecast Scenario: Strategic Mineral Export Controls – 2025–2026 Outlook
Base Case (60%) – Sustained Tight Controls, Global Adjustment
China continues strict “whole-chain” oversight into 2026. Rare earth export quotas remain capped below 40,000 tons, down from 41,000 in 2024, and Q1 2025 declines in antimony (–57%) and germanium (–39%) exports persist. Prices for key minerals stay 10–20% above 2024 levels. Western firms diversify supply chains, increase recycling, and boost mineral stockpiles. Supply disruptions are moderate but ongoing. Strategic tensions with the U.S. and EU remain steady, with no major escalation.
Upside Case (20%) – Regulatory Easing, Market Recovery
China loosens export controls in late 2025 due to improved compliance and economic pressures. Rare earth quotas rise to over 45,000 tons. Antimony and germanium exports approach pre-2024 levels. Prices fall 15–25% from current peaks. International cooperation improves; supply chains begin to normalize. Stockpiling slows as availability improves.
Downside Case (20%) – Escalation and Export Shock
China expands restrictions to additional minerals like gallium or tungsten. Exports stall, and spot prices for key minerals surge 30–50%. Severe shortages hit semiconductors, EVs, and defense production. U.S. and EU activate emergency stockpiles and invest heavily in domestic sourcing. Trade tensions spike, and global supply chains enter a prolonged disruption cycle.
