Bridging or Breaking? Meloni’s Trade Gamble with Trump
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s April 17 visit to Washington for trade talks with U.S. President Donald Trump comes amid heightened transatlantic tension. Trump has proposed a 10% universal import tariff and temporarily suspended a 20% tariff on European exports, triggering alarm across EU capitals. With Italy holding a €40 billion trade surplus with the U.S., it stands to lose significantly if talks fail.
Meloni, seen as ideologically aligned with Trump, is attempting to shield Italian exporters while maintaining credibility within the EU’s collective trade framework. Brussels fears Meloni may pursue a side deal with Washington, weakening the bloc’s negotiating power. No formal deal is expected, but this meeting may preview how Trump intends to engage Europe in his second term—bilaterally, not multilaterally.
Key Data
€40 billion – Italy’s trade surplus with the United States
20% – Tariff on EU exports threatened and temporarily suspended by the U.S.
10% – Trump’s proposed baseline tariff on all imports
90 days – Tariff suspension period for EU talks, expires in mid-July 2025
Conclusion
Giorgia Meloni’s meeting with Donald Trump is not just a diplomatic courtesy—it’s a live test of Trump’s second-term trade approach and a crucible for European trade unity. With no formal deal expected, the value of the meeting lies in the signals it sends: whether the U.S. will resume bilateral cherry-picking across Europe, and whether Italy is willing to be the test case.
Each downstream impact—fragmented political alliances, financial risk repricing, and threatened export flows—points to a broader decoupling trend in U.S.-EU trade. If bilateralism gains ground here, the very framework of European trade negotiations could unravel into national self-interest. For Italy, the price of favor with Washington may be a frayed relationship with Brussels.
Thursday, April 17, 2025
