Azerbaijan-Russia Relations at Breaking Point
A week ago, two ethnic Azerbaijani brothers—Ziyaddin (55) and Huseyn (60) Safarov—died in Russian police custody in Yekaterinburg. Baku’s autopsies found fatal beatings and blood loss, directly challenging Moscow’s claim of heart failure and ongoing inquiry. In swift retaliation, Azerbaijan expelled Sputnik’s accreditation, raided its Baku bureau, and detained eight Russian journalists plus several other nationals on charges from cybercrime to narcotics. This crisis compounds December’s downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243—38 lives lost to a Russian missile fragment despite a Kremlin apology—and President Aliyev’s boycott of Moscow’s 2025 Victory Day parade.
These incidents have cracked open centuries of Russo–Azeri ties: from 19th-century tsarist treaties through Soviet-era economic integration—when Baku’s oil fueled the USSR—to post-1991 security cooperation via the CIS. Today, roughly 2 million Azerbaijanis form Russia’s largest diaspora, and Moscow still handles significant volumes of Azerbaijani energy exports along the Northern Corridor. Yet persistent grievances—over minority treatment, Karabakh peacekeeping, and transportation fees—have driven Baku toward Turkey, Israel, and Ukraine.
This flashpoint over two deaths thus unravels Moscow’s once-unquestioned sway, with immediate political ruptures, economic realignments, and financial shocks that will echo through the South Caucasus.
Base Case: Stabilized Tension (60 %)
Relations remain strained but contained. Azerbaijan maintains diplomatic distance—freezing cultural exchanges and limiting high-level visits—while Russia continues energy transit under stricter terms. Baku deepens security and economic ties with Turkey and Ukraine, expanding non-Russian transport corridors. Occasional harsh rhetoric flares, but both sides avoid military posturing. Trade volumes dip by 10–15 %, yet essential energy flows persist. Over 12–18 months, cooperation survives only under tightly defined legal frameworks, keeping the South Caucasus uneasy but broadly predictable.
Upside Case: Managed Rapprochement (25 %)
Moscow launches a transparent investigation into the brothers’ deaths and prosecutes responsible officers. Azerbaijan publicly acknowledges progress, reinstates Sputnik’s accreditation under new oversight, and lifts certain media sanctions. Bilateral working groups reconvene to renegotiate Northern Corridor tariffs, and Baku resumes limited flights to key Russian cities. Within a year, trust rebuilds sufficiently to relaunch small-scale infrastructure projects (e.g., joint rail maintenance), stabilizing economic ties and reducing pressure on Azerbaijan’s alternative routes.
Downside Case: Full Decoupling (15 %)
Escalation deepens as Azerbaijan freezes Russian assets in Baku and bars Gazprom from new pipeline contracts; Russia retaliates by suspending visas for Azerbaijani workers and throttling energy volumes. CIS security forums are boycotted, and Russia scales back its peacekeeping role in Nagorno-Karabakh, raising the specter of renewed skirmishes. Overland trade via Russia collapses by 40 %, forcing Baku to invest heavily in longer, costlier routes through Georgia and Turkey. Sovereign bond spreads widen further, and major joint ventures (worth over $500 million) stall indefinitely.
