Analysis of the Kashmir Attack and Its Effects
On April 22, 2025, a deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir's Pahalgam region killed 26 tourists, the worst civilian attack in the region in over two decades. The attack, reportedly targeting Hindu civilians, has triggered a severe diplomatic crisis between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to pursue those responsible "to the ends of the earth," while India has implemented multiple retaliatory measures against Pakistan, including suspending the long-standing Indus Waters Treaty. The Resistance Front (TRF), believed by India to be linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, initially claimed responsibility before denying involvement.
The attack has shattered India's narrative of improved security in Kashmir since revoking its special status in 2019, raising fears of military escalation between the nuclear powers and potentially derailing India's strategic focus on positioning itself against regional rival China.
Forecast Scenarios (GCQH)
Limited Military Exchange: Likely (55-75%)
India will conduct limited military strikes against suspected militant targets across the Line of Control within 2-4 weeks, similar to its response following the 2019 Pulwama attack. Pakistan will respond with defensive measures and possibly counter-strikes, but both sides will work to prevent full-scale war. Key drivers include Modi's political imperative to demonstrate strength, balanced against mutual nuclear deterrence and international diplomatic pressure for restraint.
Diplomatic Re-engagement: Unlikely (30-45%)
International mediation, potentially led by the US or Saudi Arabia, succeeds in de-escalating tensions within 3 months. This scenario depends on conclusive evidence regarding attack responsibility and Pakistan's willingness to cooperate with "neutral investigators" as recently offered. However, the depth of current retaliatory measures and domestic political pressures make rapid resolution improbable.
Major Water Conflict: Realistic Possibility (45-55%)
India implements significant restrictions on water flow to Pakistan within 6 months, using the treaty suspension to exert maximum pressure. This could trigger escalation beyond conventional military confrontation into a resource war. This balanced probability reflects both India's technical capacity to restrict some water flows and the extreme sensitivity of water issues in Pakistan, where agriculture employs approximately 40% of the workforce.
