Loading forecasts…

Africa

Asia

Europe

North-America

Oceania

South-America

Global

Monday, April 28, 2025

Canadian Federal Election

Canadians across the country head to the polls to decide their next government.

Why it Matters:

Canada’s federal election has been dominated by concerns about sovereignty and the impact of US tariffs. The outcome of the election will determine such issues as Canada-US relations, housing and affordability, defense spending, and climate policy. 

Signal Level:

4/5

India - Industrial Production Data Released

Industrial Production data will provide insights to India's industrial sector performance for March.

Why it Matters:

Industrial Production data reflects India’s pace of industrial activity, a useful indicator of GDP growth. This data is also used by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to help guide decisions on interest rates and monetary policy.

Signal Level:

2/5

Trinidad and Tobago - General Election

Trinidad and Tobago will hold its general election on April 28, 2025. The election has been characterized by a high degree of unpredictability, with key issues including rising crime, economic hardship, and concerns over governance and transparency.

Why it Matters:

The election outcome will have profound implications for the nation's approach to crime, economic policy, and international relations, particularly concerning ties with the United States and neighboring Venezuela. The results are also expected to influence the future trajectory of governance in Trinidad and Tobago, potentially reshaping the political landscape for years to come.

Signal Level:

2/5

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

European Central Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator

The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) reflects overall economic confidence within the Eurozone.

Why it Matters:

Investors and policymakers will watch the ESI for early signals of economic trends and potential shifts in economic momentum. A decline in confidence may signal ongoing uncertainties influenced by factors such as global trade tensions and domestic economic challenges. 

Signal Level:

2/5

Germany – GfK Consumer Confidence Indicator (May)

The GfK Consumer Confidence Indicator measures consumer sentiment, including expectations about the economy, income, and willingness to make major purchases.

Why it Matters:

Consumer confidence expected to remain low in May, signalling reduced consumer spending which could impact overall economic growth and influence policy decisions by the European Central Bank.

Signal Level:

2/5

Spain – Q1 GDP (Flash Estimate)

The flash estimate for Q1 2025 will provide an early look at the nation's economic trajectory, influenced by sectors like tourism, manufacturing, and services.

Why it Matters:

Spain’s economic performance affects the wider Eurozone economy. Stronger-than-expected growth could bolster confidence in the region's recovery, whereas weaker performance might raise concerns about economic stability.

Signal Level:

2/5

Sweden – Q1 GDP (Flash Estimate)

Sweden's preliminary GDP data for Q1 of 2025 is expected to provide insights into the country's economic performance, reflecting factors such as domestic demand, exports, and industrial output.

Why it Matters:

GDP growth rates are important indicators of economic health. A slowdown or contraction could prompt the Swedish central bank to adjust monetary policies, while robust growth might lead to tighter policies to prevent overheating.

Signal Level:

1/5

United States – March Goods Trade Balance (Advance Estimate)

The advance estimate of the U.S. goods trade balance for March will provide an early indication of the country's trade dynamics, including imports and exports of goods.

Why it Matters:

A widening trade deficit could signal increased reliance on foreign goods, potentially impacting domestic industries and influencing trade policy discussions.

Signal Level:

3/5

United States – March Wholesale Inventories (Advance Estimate)

The advance data on U.S. wholesale inventories for March will offer insights into business stockpiling behaviors and supply chain conditions.

Why it Matters:

Changes in inventory levels can indicate future production and sales trends. Rising inventories may suggest slowing demand, while declining inventories could point to potential supply shortages.

Signal Level:

3/5

United States – S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (February)

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for February reflects trends in U.S. residential real estate prices, highlighting regional variations and overall market health.

Why it Matters:

Home prices influence consumer wealth and spending. Significant changes in home prices can affect household confidence and may prompt adjustments in housing policies.

Signal Level:

2/5

United States – JOLTs Job Openings (March)

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for March will provide data on job vacancies, hires, and separations in the U.S. labor market.

Why it Matters:

The JOLTS report is a key indicator of labor market dynamics. An increase in job openings may signal a tightening labor market, potentially leading to wage pressures and influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Signal Level:

2/5

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

South Korea – Industrial Production Data (March)

South Korea's industrial production data for March will be released, providing insights into the country's manufacturing sector performance

Why it Matters:

Industrial production figures are crucial for assessing economic health, influencing policy decisions and investor sentiment regarding South Korea's economic outlook.

Signal Level:

2/5

Japan – Preliminary Industrial Production and Retail Sales Data (March)

Preliminary data for Japan's industrial production and retail sales in March 2025 will be published, offering early indicators of economic activity.

Why it Matters:

Industrial production and retail sales indicators help gauge domestic demand and manufacturing strength, informing both monetary policy and business investment strategies.

Signal Level:

2/5

Australia – Q1 Inflation Data

Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first quarter of 2025 will be released, detailing inflation trends across various sectors.

Why it Matters:

Inflation data is pivotal for the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy decisions, impacting interest rates and economic growth projections.

Signal Level:

2/5

 China – NBS PMI (April)

China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April 2025 will be announced, reflecting manufacturing sector performance.

Why it Matters:

The NBS PMI is a leading indicator of economic health, influencing investor perceptions and policy directions within China and globally.

Signal Level:

2/5

China – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (April)

The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for China in April 2025 will be released, providing an alternative view of the manufacturing sector's health.

Why it Matters:

Divergences between the NBS and Caixin PMIs can offer deeper insights into sectoral dynamics and economic conditions.

Signal Level:

2/5

Germany – Unemployment Rate (April)

Germany's unemployment rate for April 2025 will be released, providing insights into the labor market's health.

Why it Matters:

Unemployment figures are key indicators of economic performance, influencing consumer spending and policy decisions within the Eurozone.

Signal Level:

2/5

Canada – GDP Data (February)

Canada's preliminary GDP estimate for February 2025 will be published, indicating economic activity levels.

Why it Matters:

GDP data informs policymakers and investors about economic performance, influencing decisions on fiscal and monetary policies.

Signal Level:

2/5

United States – Q1 GDP (Advance Estimate)

The U.S. advance GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2025 will be released, providing an early look at economic growth.

Why it Matters:

GDP figures are essential for assessing economic health, influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions and market expectations.

Signal Level:

2/5

Bank of Japan - Monetary Policy Meeting

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is scheduled to hold its next monetary policy meeting on April 30–May 1, 2025.

Why it Matters:

While no immediate policy changes are anticipated, the meeting is significant due to Japan's evolving economic conditions and the BOJ's ongoing efforts to normalize its ultra-loose monetary policy.

Signal Level:

1/5

Eurozone – Q1 GDP (Flash Estimate)

The Eurozone's flash GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2025 will be released, offering an early look at economic performance.

Why it Matters:

GDP growth rates are essential for assessing the region's economic health, impacting policy decisions by the European Central Bank.

Signal Level:

2/5

Thursday, May 1, 2025

Japan – Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Japan is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision.

Why it Matters:

Interest rate decisions by the Bank of Japan have significant implications for the Japanese economy and global markets. A rate change can influence inflation, economic growth, and investor sentiment.

Signal Level:

3/5

Japan – Consumer Confidence (April)

Japan's consumer confidence index for April 2025 will be released, reflecting households' perceptions of economic conditions.

Why it Matters:

Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which drives a significant portion of economic activity. A decline in confidence may signal reduced spending and potential economic slowdown.

Signal Level:

2/5

United States – ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)

The Institute for Supply Management will release its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April 2025.

Why it Matters:

The PMI is a leading indicator of economic health, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. It provides insights into manufacturing sector performance and overall economic activity.

Signal Level:

2/5

United Kingdom – Nationwide Housing Price Index (April) & Mortgage Lending and Approvals (March)

The Nationwide Building Society will release its housing price index for April 2025, indicating trends in the UK housing market // Data on mortgage lending and approvals for March 2025 will be published, offering insights into the housing market's health.. 

Why it Matters:

Housing prices affect consumer wealth and spending. Rising prices can boost confidence and spending, while falling prices may have the opposite effect, impacting economic growth // Mortgage activity is closely tied to consumer confidence and economic conditions. An increase in lending and approvals can indicate economic optimism, while a decrease may suggest caution among consumers.

Signal Level:

2/5

Australia – Trade Balance Data (March)

Australia's trade balance data for March 2025 will be released, providing insights into the country's exports and imports.

Why it Matters:

The trade balance is a key indicator of economic health, influencing currency valuation and economic policy decisions. A surplus can strengthen the Australian dollar, while a deficit may have the opposite effect.

Signal Level:

2/5

United Kingdom - Local Elections

Local elections will be held for 1,641 council seats across 24 local authorities, with all seats on 14 county councils and eight unitary authorities in England up for grabs. 

Why it Matters:

Local elections are often a barometer for shifting political allegiances and a precursor to future national electoral trends. The rising popularity of Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is challenging the traditional Labour-Conservative dominance, particularly in former Labour strongholds could influence national party strategies and voter perceptions ahead of the next general election, especially concerning issues like Brexit, public services, and economic policies. 

Signal Level:

3/5

Friday, May 2, 2025

Worldwide Manufacturing PMIs (April)

The global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for April will be released, providing a snapshot of manufacturing activity across major economies.

Why it Matters:

PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, while below 50 suggest contraction. This data is crucial for assessing global economic health and guiding central bank policy decisions.

Signal Level:

3/5

South Korea – Inflation (April)

South Korea's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will be published, reflecting changes in the cost of goods and services.

Why it Matters:

Inflation trends influence the Bank of Korea's monetary policy. A rise above the target range may prompt interest rate adjustments to maintain price stability.

Signal Level:

2/5

Japan – Unemployment Rate (March)

Japan's unemployment rate for March will be announced, indicating the percentage of the labor force that is jobless.

Why it Matters:

A low unemployment rate suggests a healthy labor market, which can boost consumer confidence and spending, driving economic growth.

Signal Level:

1/5

Eurozone – April Inflation (Flash Estimate)

The European Central Bank’s preliminary inflation figures for April will be published, showing early trends in price changes.

Why it Matters:

Inflation data is vital for the European Central Bank's policy decisions. Persistent inflation above the target may lead to tighter monetary policies.

Signal Level:

3/5

Eurozone – Unemployment Rate (March)

The Eurozone's unemployment rate for March will be announced, indicating the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.

Why it Matters:

A decrease in unemployment suggests economic expansion, while an increase may raise concerns about economic stability and growth prospects.

Signal Level:

2/5

United States – Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings (April)

The U.S. Department of Labor will release data on non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings for April.

Why it Matters:

These indicators are critical for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market. Strong employment figures can influence Federal Reserve policy decisions and market expectations.

Signal Level:

2/5

United States – Factory Orders (March)

The U.S. Census Bureau will publish data on factory orders for March, reflecting new orders placed with manufacturers.

Why it Matters:

An increase in factory orders suggests rising demand for goods, which can lead to higher production and economic growth. Conversely, a decline may indicate weakening demand.

Signal Level:

3/5

Saturday, May 3, 2025

United States - 25 per cent tariff on imported car parts to enter into force

The Trump administration’s 25 per cent tariff on imported car parts is due to enter into force.

Why it Matters:

Industry experts warn of potential price increases for consumers, with estimates suggesting that vehicle costs could rise by $3,000 to $10,000 due to higher production expenses. Furthermore, the interconnected nature of global supply chains means that these tariffs could disrupt manufacturing processes, leading to delays and inefficiencies.

Signal Level:

4/5

Australia - Federal Election

Australians head to the polls to decide their next federal government.

Why it Matters:

Key issues influencing voter decisions include the escalating cost of living, housing affordability, climate policy, and national security. The election will determine the composition of the 48th Parliament, with all 151 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 of the 76 Senate seats up for grabs.

Signal Level:

4/5

Singapore - General Election

Singapore's general election will elect all 97 members of the Parliament.

Why it Matters:

This election is crucial for determining Singapore's political direction amid economic challenges. The outcome will influence policies on economic management, social welfare, and Singapore's position in global trade.

Signal Level:

3/5

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Romania's presidential election is scheduled for May 4, 2025, with a potential runoff on May 18.

Why it Matters:

The previous election was annulled due to allegations of external interference and cyberattacks. This election is pivotal for Romania's political stability and its alignment with the European Union. The elected president will play a key role in shaping Romania's domestic and foreign policies, particularly concerning EU relations and national security.

Signal Level:

3/5

Italy - 58th Annual Meeting of the Asian Development Bank

The meeting will convene over 3,500 participants, including finance ministers, central bank governors, senior officials from ADB’s 68 member countries, representatives from international organizations, the private sector, civil society, and the media.

Why it Matters:

Italy’s hosting of the meeting underscores the country’s growing engagement with the Asia-Pacific region. The event provides an opportunity for Italy to strengthen its ties with Asia-Pacific economies, fostering collaboration on issues such as infrastructure development, climate change, and economic resilience.

Signal Level:

2/5

Monday, May 5, 2025

Canada & US - Release of S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers’ Index data

S&P Global Services PMI data measures the economic health of the service sector by surveying purchasing managers on business activity, new orders, employment, and prices.

Why it Matters:

The services sector makes up a large portion of both economies and acts as a key indicator of broader economic trends. A strong U.S. PMI suggests continued momentum that could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions, particularly around interest rates. Conversely, Canada’s weaker PMI points to possible economic softening, which could pressure the Bank of Canada to consider rate cuts or other supportive measures. The divergence also highlights the differing impacts of global and domestic conditions on each country’s economic outlook.

Signal Level:

2/5

Turkey - Release of April CPI and PPI inflation rate data

April CPI and PPI inflation rate data will give insight on how much inflation increased in Turkey last month driven largely by sharp increases in electricity prices and a weakening lira.

Why it Matters:

The rise in inflation is significant as it underscores the ongoing economic challenges Turkey faces, including energy price volatility and currency depreciation. The government's response, including raising the policy interest rate to 49% and selling $50 billion in foreign reserves, aims to stabilize the economy and curb inflation. However, the persistence of high inflation rates, particularly in energy and food sectors, may strain household budgets and erode purchasing power, potentially leading to social unrest and affecting the country's economic stability.

Signal Level:

2/5

United States - Conference Board Employment Trends Index

The Employment Trends Index (ETI) is a composite economic indicator designed to predict short-term trends in U.S. employment growth. A rising ETI usually indicates strong or improving employment growth while a declining ETI may signal a slowdown or contraction in hiring. Its decline in January suggests that the trend of job gains may be slowing in the coming months.

Why it Matters:

The ETI has not been updated beyond January. In that month, the ETI declined to 108.35 from a revised 109.23 in December 2024. This decrease followed three consecutive monthly gains and indicated a potential slowdown in job growth. The decline was attributed to negative contributions from five of the eight components of the index, including the percentage of respondents who say "jobs are hard to get," the ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers, real manufacturing and trade sales, the number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry, and industrial production.

Signal Level:

2/5

Indonesia - Release of Q1 GDP data

Indonesia's GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is projected to have slowed to 4.91% year-on-year, down from 5.02% in the previous quarter. This deceleration is attributed to a combination of factors, including reduced private consumption, declining exports—particularly due to weakened demand from China—and a dip in consumer confidence.

Why it Matters:

The slowdown in Indonesia's economic growth is significant as it reflects the challenges the country faces amid global economic uncertainties and domestic factors. The decline in private consumption and exports indicates potential vulnerabilities in key economic drivers. The weakening consumer confidence suggests that households may be tightening their spending, which could further dampen economic activity. Despite efforts by Bank Indonesia to stimulate growth through interest rate cuts, the persistence of these challenges underscores the need for structural reforms and policy adjustments to bolster economic resilience and sustain growth momentum.

Signal Level:

2/5

Switzerland - Release of April CPI data

In March, the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3%, slightly down from February's 0.4% but surpassing the forecasted 0.2%. This uptick was largely driven by higher housing and energy costs.

Why it Matters:

The upcoming April inflation data is crucial for assessing the effectiveness of the SNB's monetary policy. Persistent low inflation could prompt further rate cuts, potentially bringing the policy rate closer to zero. Conversely, a rise in inflation might influence the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to reconsider its accommodative stance. Given Switzerland's status as a global financial hub, its inflation trends can have broader implications for European economic stability and investor sentiment.

Signal Level:

1/5

France - Industrial action expected, CGT-Cheminots

France's largest rail union, CGT-Cheminots, has initiated an indefinite strike to demand higher wages for train drivers. The strike is part of a broader series of rolling walkouts planned through June 28, with workers committing to strike two days out of every five.

Why it Matters:

The commencement of this indefinite strike underscores ongoing labor tensions within France's state-owned rail operator, SNCF. Given the pivotal role of SNCF in France's transportation infrastructure, prolonged disruptions could have substantial economic implications, affecting daily commuters, tourism, and freight logistics.

Signal Level:

3/5

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

France - INSEE March industrial production index

France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) will release March industrial production data.

Why it Matters:

The underperformance of France's industrial sector highlights persistent challenges, including high energy costs and reduced demand in key manufacturing areas. The contraction in manufacturing output, particularly in energy-intensive industries, signals potential risks to economic growth and employment. These developments underscore the need for targeted policy interventions to address structural issues and support the resilience of the industrial sector in the face of ongoing economic pressures.

Signal Level:

2/5

United Kingdom - April international reserves data

This monthly publication by HM Treasury provides detailed information on the UK's holdings of gold, foreign currency assets, and International Monetary Fund (IMF) assets. The data serves as a key indicator of the country's financial stability and its capacity to engage in international trade and financial transactions.

Why it Matters:

The most recent data available, for February 2025, reported a slight increase in foreign exchange reserves to approximately $113.8 billion USD, up from $112.5 billion in January 2025. The reserves data offers insights into the country's financial health and its ability to meet external obligations, and can influence investor confidence and currency markets, as changes in reserve levels may signal shifts in economic policy or financial stability.

Signal Level:

1/5

United States - March goods and services trade figures are published

The U.S. is scheduled to release its March 2025 international trade data on May 6, 2025. Observers will watch to see the impact of the Trump administration’s trade policies.

Why it Matters:

The upcoming March trade data is critical for assessing the impact of recent trade policies on the U.S. economy. The January figures indicated a sharp increase in imports as businesses rushed to stockpile goods before the implementation of new tariffs. This behavior has led to concerns about potential economic slowdown, with some analysts warning of a heightened risk of recession in the coming months. The March data will provide further insights into these trends and inform policymakers and investors about the evolving trade dynamics and their implications for economic growth

Signal Level:

2/5

Philippines - Release of April inflation data

The Philippines is scheduled to release its April 2025 inflation data on May 6, 2025. In March 2025, the country's headline inflation rate eased to 1.8%, marking the lowest annual rate in nearly five years. This decline was primarily attributed to slower price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages, which rose by 2.2% compared to 5.6% in March 2024.

Why it Matters:

The projected continued decline in inflation suggests that interventions such as tariff reductions and price controls on essential commodities are having a positive impact. This trend is expected to influence the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) monetary policy decisions, potentially leading to further interest rate cuts to support economic growth. Additionally, the data will provide insights into the purchasing power of Filipino households and inform fiscal planning for the remainder of the year.

Signal Level:

2/5

Canada - Release of March international goods and services trade data

January figures indicated a surge in exports, possibly due to anticipatory shipments ahead of tariff implementations. Analysts will seek to determine whether this trend continued in March or if the tariffs have begun to affect trade flows.

Why it Matters:

The upcoming March trade data will be crucial for assessing the impact of recent U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports and their broader economic implications.

Signal Level:

2/5

Germany - Friedrich Merz set to be voted as the country’s new chancellor by members of the Bundestag

Friedrich Merz is set to be officially voted in as Germany’s new Chancellor by the Bundestag, following the federal elections held on February 23, 2025.

Why it Matters:

Merz's election as Chancellor marks a pivotal shift in Germany's political landscape. Although the CDU/CSU did not achieve an outright majority, Merz has successfully negotiated a coalition agreement with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), resulting in a CDU/CSU-SPD government. The coalition is expected to steer Germany toward a more conservative and economically liberal direction, focusing on reducing immigration and implementing stricter border controls. The government's ability to effectively manage the challenges posed by the AfD's rise and to foster stability within the European Union will be closely scrutinized.

Signal Level:

3/5

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Denmark - Copenhagen Climate Ministerial

Copenhagen will host a pivotal climate ministerial meeting co-chaired by Denmark’s Minister of Energy, Utilities, and Climate, Lars Aagaard; COP30 President-designate Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago of Brazil; and outgoing COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev of Azerbaijan. This gathering aims to review the outcomes of COP29 and set the stage for COP30, scheduled for November in Belém, Brazil.

Why it Matters:

Approximately 40 global leaders and policymakers are expected to attend, focusing on enhancing climate ambition and implementation of national climate plans. The meeting will also serve as a platform to discuss the "Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T," a financial framework aiming to mobilize at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 for climate action in developing countries. The outcomes of this meeting are expected to shape the agenda and negotiations for COP30, influencing the effectiveness of international climate agreements and their impact on global climate resilience.

Signal Level:

2/5

Vatican - Conclave to elect the next pope begins

On May 7, 2025, the Vatican will commence a pivotal papal conclave to elect the successor to Pope Francis, who passed away on April 21 at the age of 88.

Why it Matters:

The 2025 papal conclave will determine the future direction of the Catholic Church following Pope Francis's death. The conclave will convene 135 cardinal electors from 71 countries, making it the most geographically diverse in history. The conclave's composition reflects a significant shift, representing a broad international spectrum, including a notable presence from Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The outcome of this conclave will have lasting implications for the Church's role in the modern world and its engagement with contemporary challenges.

Signal Level:

2/5

Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, UK - S&P Global/HCOB to release PMI construction data

This index gauges the economic health of the construction sector, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. The data will provide insights into trends in construction activity, including residential, commercial, and civil engineering projects.

Why it Matters:

The construction PMI is a leading indicator of economic momentum, reflecting demand for building materials, labor, and investment in infrastructure. A robust construction sector can signal broader economic growth, while a slowdown may indicate potential challenges ahead. Given the importance of construction in employment and GDP, these figures will be closely analyzed by policymakers and investors alike.

Signal Level:

2/5

European Union - Release of March retail trade figures

On May 6, 2025, the European Union will release its retail trade data for March 2025. This report will detail consumer spending patterns across member states, highlighting changes in sales volumes for goods such as food, clothing, and electronics. Retail trade is a key component of consumer confidence and economic activity.

Why it Matters:

Retail sales figures are a direct reflection of consumer sentiment and purchasing power. Stronger-than-expected sales can indicate economic resilience, while weaker figures may suggest caution or declining confidence among consumers. These insights are vital for central banks and governments when considering monetary and fiscal policies.

Signal Level:

2/5

Germany - Release of March industrial orders data

On May 6, 2025, Germany will release its industrial orders data for March 2025. This report will provide information on new orders received by manufacturers, serving as a barometer for future industrial production. A rise in orders typically signals increased demand and potential growth in the manufacturing sector.

Why it Matters:

Industrial orders are a leading indicator of economic activity, particularly in export-driven economies like Germany. An uptick in orders can suggest strengthening demand both domestically and internationally, while a decline may point to softening economic conditions. These figures are crucial for forecasting GDP growth and assessing the health of the industrial sector.

Signal Level:

1/5

Japan - Release of au Jibun bank services PMI data

On May 6, 2025, Japan will release its au Jibun Bank Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April 2025.

Why it Matters:

This index measures the performance of the services sector, including areas such as finance, retail, and transportation. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction. The services sector is a significant contributor to Japan's GDP. The PMI provides timely insights into business activity and sentiment, which can influence monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Japan.

Signal Level:

1/5

United States - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate announcement

The U.S. Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its decision regarding the federal funds rate. The current target range is 4.25% to 4.5%.

Why it Matters:

The announcement will provide insights into the Fed's assessment of economic conditions, including inflation, employment, and overall growth. Given recent economic uncertainties, including trade policy developments and inflation trends, this meeting will be particularly scrutinized.

Signal Level:

2/5

United States - U.S. Customs and Border Protection holds its 2025 Trade and Cargo Security Summit

From May 6 to May 8, 2025, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will host its annual Trade Facilitation and Cargo Security Summit in New Orleans.

Why it Matters:

This event will bring together stakeholders from across the trade and logistics sectors—including importers, exporters, customs brokers, and government agencies—to discuss and collaborate on key issues affecting global trade security and efficiency. Topics covered include the implementation of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), advancements in non-intrusive inspection technologies, artificial intelligence in trade compliance, and updates to the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) system. The discussions and outcomes from this event are expected to influence future regulatory approaches and operational strategies within the global trade community.

Signal Level:

2/5

Thursday, May 8, 2025

Russia - Putin anticipated to implement 72 hour ceasefire in Ukraine

On April 28, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a unilateral 72-hour ceasefire in Ukraine, scheduled from May 8 to May 10, to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

Why it Matters:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has dismissed the proposal, calling it a "theatrical show," and reiterated Ukraine's readiness for a genuine, lasting ceasefire of at least 30 days. The proposed ceasefire holds symbolic importance, aligning with Russia's Victory Day celebrations and serving as a diplomatic gesture. However, the unilateral nature of the announcement and the absence of mutual agreement raise questions about its effectiveness in halting the ongoing conflict.

Signal Level:

4/5

Germany - Release of March international trade figures

Germany's Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) is set to release the March 2025 foreign trade figures on May 7, 2025. These figures will provide insights into the country's export and import activities, reflecting the health of its external trade relationships.

Why it Matters:

The March data will be pivotal in assessing Germany's trade balance and its economic resilience amid global uncertainties. A sustained increase in exports could indicate robust demand for German goods, while a rise in imports might suggest strengthening domestic consumption. These figures are crucial for policymakers and investors monitoring Germany's economic performance.

Signal Level:

2/5

Japan - Minutes of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) March rate-setting meeting to be published

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will release the minutes of its March 2025 monetary policy meeting on May 8, 2025.

Why it Matters:

During this meeting, the BOJ decided to maintain the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 0.5%, signaling a continuation of its accommodative monetary policy stance. The minutes will provide deeper insights into the BOJ's economic outlook and the factors influencing its policy decisions.

Signal Level:

1/5

United Kingdom - Bank of England Interest Rate Announcement

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to announce a 0.25% reduction in the Bank Rate, lowering it from 5.25% to 5.00%.

Why it Matters:

The anticipated rate cut aims to support economic growth and manage inflationary pressures. However, some experts advise caution, noting persistent inflation in services and wages, as well as potential global trade disruptions . The MPC's meeting minutes, also to be published on May 8, will offer detailed insights into the committee's discussions and considerations behind the rate decision

Signal Level:

2/5

United Kingdom - Release of Halifax House Price Index (April)

The Halifax House Price Index for April 2025 is scheduled for release on May 8, 2025. In March 2025, UK house prices were 2.8% higher than the same month a year earlier, with a monthly decline of 0.5%

Why it Matters:

The April data will provide further clarity on the housing market's trajectory, offering insights into affordability, demand, and regional disparities. Given the housing sector's impact on consumer wealth and spending, these figures are closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and potential homeowners.

Signal Level:

1/5

Malaysia - March industrial production figures and BNM interest rate decision

Malaysia's Department of Statistics is scheduled to release the March 2025 Industrial Production Index (IPI) on May 11, 2025, while Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is expected to maintain its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3.0% during its upcoming monetary policy meeting.

Why it Matters:

The March data will provide insights into the resilience of Malaysia's industrial sector amidst global uncertainties. A sustained or improved IPI could signal robust domestic demand and export performance, while a decline may indicate challenges such as weaker external demand or supply chain disruptions // The decision to hold the OPR steady reflects BNM's commitment to supporting domestic economic growth while maintaining price stability. Economists anticipate that the central bank will continue this accommodative stance throughout 2025, barring significant shifts in inflation or economic conditions. This approach aims to bolster consumer spending and investment amidst global economic uncertainties.

Signal Level:

1/5

Friday, May 9, 2025

Russia - Victory Day celebrations

Russia will commemorate the 80th anniversary of its victory over Nazi Germany with a grand military parade in Moscow's Red Square.

Why it Matters:

The 80th anniversary will mark a pivotal moment for President Putin to reinforce nationalistic sentiments amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. The expected presence of leaders such as Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic may have implications for international relations.

Signal Level:

2/5

China - Release of April trade figures

On May 9, 2025, China will release its trade figures for April. The data will provide insight into the country's export and import performance following a challenging period in the global economy.

Why it Matters:

The release of the April trade data will be important for assessing the resilience of China’s economy amid ongoing global uncertainties, including trade tensions and slower growth in major economies. Expectations are that exports may show moderate growth, driven by increased demand from key trading partners, while imports could rise due to stronger domestic consumption and production.

Signal Level:

2/5

Italy - Release of March industrial production data

The upcoming March figures will provide further insight into the trajectory of Italy's industrial sector, which has been facing challenges such as declining business and consumer confidence.

Why it Matters:

The March data will be crucial for assessing whether the January uptick of 3.2% was a temporary rebound or the beginning of a sustained recovery. A continued decline could signal persistent weaknesses in manufacturing and production, potentially impacting Italy's overall economic growth prospects. Conversely, a strong performance could indicate resilience in the industrial sector amid broader economic uncertainties.

Signal Level:

2/5

Brazil - Release of April inflation data

Brazil's inflation data for April 2025 is set to be released on May 9. In March, the annual inflation rate rose to 5.06%, up from 4.56% in February, marking the highest level since September 2023.

Why it Matters:

The April inflation data will be closely monitored to determine whether the central bank's tightening measures are effectively containing inflationary pressures. Persistent inflation above the target could prompt further rate hikes, potentially slowing economic growth. Conversely, a moderation in inflation could provide the central bank with more flexibility in its monetary policy.

Signal Level:

2/5

Turkey - Release of March industrial production data

Turkey's industrial production data for March 2025 is scheduled for release on May 9.

Why it Matters:

The decline experienced in February was attributed to weaker performance in manufacturing and mining sectors. The upcoming March figures will provide further insight into the health of Turkey's industrial sector amid ongoing economic challenges. A further slowdown in industrial production could indicate weakening domestic demand and manufacturing activity, potentially impacting Turkey's economic growth. Conversely, a rebound could signal resilience in the industrial sector, supporting broader economic stability.

Signal Level:

2/5

United Kingdom - Release of March industrial production data

The UK's industrial production data for March 2025 is scheduled for release on May 15. In January, industrial output decreased by 0.9%, following a 0.5% rise in December.

Why it Matters:

The upcoming March figures will provide further insight into the performance of the UK's industrial sector amid challenges such as global trade tensions and rising business costs. A continued decline in industrial production could signal persistent weaknesses in the sector, potentially impacting the UK's overall economic growth. Conversely, a rebound could indicate resilience in manufacturing and production, supporting broader economic stability.

Signal Level:

2/5

Japan - Release of March household spending data

Japan's household spending data for March 2025 is scheduled for release on May 9. The upcoming March figures will provide further insight into consumer spending patterns amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

Why it Matters:

A sustained increase in household spending could indicate strengthening consumer confidence and economic recovery. Conversely, a decline could signal weakening consumer sentiment, potentially impacting Japan's economic growth prospects.

Signal Level:

1/5

Saturday, May 10, 2025

China - Release of April CPI and PPI data

China's National Bureau of Statistics is set to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for April 2025 on May 10. These indicators will provide insights into inflationary trends and the health of the industrial sector

Why it Matters:

The release of the April CPI and PPI data will be crucial for understanding the current economic conditions in China. A higher-than-expected CPI could indicate rising consumer prices, potentially leading to concerns about inflation and prompting the People's Bank of China to consider tightening monetary policy. Conversely, a lower-than-expected CPI might suggest weak consumer demand and economic sluggishness. Similarly, the PPI data will shed light on the health of China's industrial sector.

Signal Level:

2/5

Sunday, May 11, 2025

Albania - Parliamentary elections

Albania is set to hold its parliamentary election on May 11, 2025, with over 3.6 million eligible voters, including approximately 250,000 from the diaspora.

Why it Matters:

This election will determine 140 seats in the Albanian Parliament, with the Socialist Party (PS) of Prime Minister Edi Rama seeking a fourth consecutive term. The main opposition, the Democratic Party (PD), led by Sali Berisha, accuses the PS of corruption and election manipulation. The outcome of this election is crucial for Albania's aspirations to join the European Union by 2030. The EU has emphasized the importance of sustained reforms, particularly in areas such as the rule of law and anti-corruption measures. The election has been marked by controversy, including protests over the government's decision to ban TikTok, which the opposition views as an attempt to stifle dissent ahead of the vote.

Signal Level:

2/5

Monday, May 12, 2025

Philippines - General Elections

The Philippines is holding its general elections on May 12, 2025, with over 68 million registered voters casting ballots for 317 seats in the House of Representatives and 12 of the 24 Senate seats. The elections are particularly significant as they feature a political showdown between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte.

Why it Matters:

The outcome of the May 2025 general elections holds profound implications for the Philippines' future governance and policy trajectory. The newly elected opposition majority is anticipated to challenge existing policies, potentially leading to reforms in areas such as taxation, infrastructure development, and social services. This political shift may also affect the country's international relations, particularly with key allies and trading partners, as new leadership often brings different diplomatic priorities.

Signal Level:

3/5

United Kingdom - CIPD Labour Market Outlook (May) & KPMG-REC Report on Jobs

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) will publish its quarterly Labour Market Outlook, providing insights into UK employers' hiring intentions, pay expectations, and anticipated workforce challenges. This report is based on a survey of over 2,000 employers and serves as a forward-looking indicator of labor market trends // The Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC), in collaboration with KPMG, will release its monthly Report on Jobs. This report provides data on job vacancies, placements, and starting salaries across the UK, offering a snapshot of current labor market conditions.

Why it Matters:

The CIPD Labour Market Outlook is a crucial tool for policymakers, businesses, and analysts to gauge the health of the UK's labor market. It offers early insights into potential skills shortages, wage pressures, and employment trends, which can inform decisions on monetary policy, recruitment strategies, and workforce planning // The KPMG and REC Report on Jobs is widely regarded as a leading indicator of labor market activity. It helps to identify trends in employment demand, wage growth, and regional disparities, providing valuable information for businesses, policymakers, and economists monitoring the UK's economic performance.

Signal Level:

1/5

United Kingdom - UK to host EU foreign ministers on defense and Ukraine

UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy will host foreign ministers from key EU nations—France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Poland—along with senior EU officials.

Why it Matters:

The primary focus will be on enhancing military and financial support for Ukraine amid ongoing Russian aggression, and discussing closer defence coordination across Europe. This event precedes a broader summit on May 19 between UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and EU leaders.This meeting marks a critical moment in post-Brexit UK-EU relations, signalling potential realignment and cooperation on strategic security issues. It also reinforces Western unity in backing Ukraine and highlights Europe's desire to enhance its collective defence capabilities in response to an increasingly assertive Russia.

Signal Level:

2/5

China - Xi Jinping hosts Brazil’s President Lula

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva arrived in China on May 11 for a four day state visit aimed at strengthening bilateral ties and enhancing cooperation between the two nations. This visit underscores Brazil's commitment to diversifying its international partnerships and engaging more deeply with China. During his stay, President Lula is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss various areas of collaboration, including trade, infrastructure development, and regional security.

Why it Matters:

President Lula's visit to China is a strategic move to bolster Brazil's economic and political relations with one of the world's leading powers. By engaging directly with China, Brazil aims to attract investment, particularly in infrastructure and technology sectors, and to enhance its standing in global forums. The timing of the visit, aligning with the China-CELAC Forum, emphasizes Brazil's role in fostering stronger ties between Latin America and China, positioning itself as a key player in regional diplomacy. This engagement also reflects Brazil's broader foreign policy approach of diversifying alliances and reducing dependency on traditional Western partners. The outcomes of this visit could have lasting implications for trade dynamics and geopolitical alignments in the region.

Signal Level:

2/5

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

China - CELAC Forum Ministerial Meeting

The China-CELAC Forum Ministerial Meeting convenes in Beijing on May 13, 2025, marking a significant step in China's diplomatic outreach to Latin America and the Caribbean.

Why it Matters:

This forum underscores China's strategic interest in expanding its influence in Latin America and the Caribbean, regions rich in natural resources and emerging markets. The forum aims to deepen political trust, enhance economic cooperation, and promote cultural exchanges between China and CELAC member countries. Discussions are expected to focus on areas such as trade, infrastructure development, and regional security, with the goal of fostering a comprehensive and mutually beneficial partnership. The outcomes of this meeting could lead to increased Chinese investment in infrastructure and technology sectors across the region, potentially reshaping trade dynamics and geopolitical alignments. However, the forum also presents challenges, as some Latin American nations navigate the complexities of balancing relations with China and the United States, particularly amid ongoing trade tensions.

Signal Level:

2/5

Saudi Arabia - President Trump begins his Middle East tour

President Trump will arrive in Saudi Arabia to kick off his diplomatic tour of the Arab Gulf states, which will last until May 16. During his trip, President Trump is expected to hold bilateral talks with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.

Why it Matters:

The tour is centered on strengthening U.S. economic and strategic ties with Gulf nations, with particular focus on securing major investment pledges totaling up to $2 trillion. Key areas of discussion include infrastructure, energy, artificial intelligence, and tourism. Trump is also engaging with state leaders and business executives to promote U.S. private sector involvement in Gulf development projects. His meetings occur against the backdrop of escalating tensions in Gaza, stalled normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and a shifting global power balance marked by Chinese and Russian engagement in the region.

Signal Level:

2/5

Japan - BoJ Summary of Opinions (April)

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will release its Summary of Opinions for April 2025, providing insights into the discussions held during the Monetary Policy Meeting. This document offers a detailed account of the viewpoints expressed by BoJ board members regarding economic conditions and monetary policy.

Why it Matters:

This summary is crucial for understanding the BoJ's policy direction and the economic outlook from the central bank's perspective. It can influence market expectations and investor sentiment, particularly concerning interest rate decisions and inflation targets.

Signal Level:

2/5

India - Release of Inflation Rate Data (April)

India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2025. This index measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services.

Why it Matters:

India's inflation rate, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is a key indicator of price stability and purchasing power. A moderate inflation rate is typically seen as a sign of a healthy economy, while high inflation can erode consumer purchasing power and lead to higher interest rates. Given recent market volatility and currency depreciation, the April inflation data will be closely scrutinized to assess the effectiveness of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policies and to gauge the economic outlook.

Signal Level:

2/5

South Africa - Q1 Unemployment Rate Data

Statistics South Africa will announce the unemployment rate for the first quarter of 2025. This figure represents the percentage of the labour force that is jobless and actively seeking employment.

Why it Matters:

South Africa's unemployment rate is a critical indicator of economic health, reflecting the proportion of the labor force that is jobless and actively seeking employment. A high unemployment rate can signal economic distress and may prompt the government to implement policies aimed at job creation and economic stimulation. Conversely, a declining unemployment rate suggests improvements in the labor market and overall economic conditions.

Signal Level:

1/5

United States - Release of April CPI

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2025.

Why it Matters:

April's CPI data is particularly significant given the recent introduction of tariffs by former President Trump, which are expected to impact consumer prices. Economists anticipate a 0.3% month-on-month increase, with potential for a larger inflation surge in the coming months. Persistent inflation could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions, including interest rate adjustments, and affect market sentiment.

Signal Level:

2/5

Denmark - Copenhagen Democracy Summit 2025

The Copenhagen Democracy Summit 2025 is scheduled to take place on May 13–14 at the Royal Danish Playhouse in Copenhagen.

Why it Matters:

This annual event, organized by the Alliance of Democracies Foundation, serves as a high-level strategic forum dedicated to strengthening and defending democracy worldwide. The summit brings together leaders from politics, business, media, and academia to engage in discussions on pressing issues affecting democracies, including the rise of authoritarianism, the role of technology in democratic governance, and strategies for international cooperation.

Signal Level:

1/5

Luxembourg - Council of Europe Committee of Ministers Session

The Council of Europe’s Committee of Ministers is convening its session in Luxembourg this week, bringing together foreign ministers from all 46 member states.

Why it Matters:

The two-day meeting will focus on various pressing issues, with a significant emphasis on supporting Ukraine amidst its ongoing conflict with Russia. Luxembourg, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Committee, has prioritized Ukraine's needs, aiming to bolster accountability for crimes committed during the war and to promote a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace. The discussions are expected to reinforce Luxembourg's leadership in advocating for Ukraine, including support for the establishment of a special international criminal tribunal to prosecute crimes of aggression. The outcomes of this meeting will likely influence the Council's future actions and policies concerning Ukraine and broader European security.

Signal Level:

2/5

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

World - OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is set to release its Monthly Oil Market Report for May 2025. This report provides comprehensive data and analysis on global oil market trends, including production levels, demand forecasts, and price movements

Why it Matters:

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is a critical resource for understanding the dynamics of the global oil market. The projected increase in oil demand and supply growth indicates a balanced market, which could influence oil prices and investment decisions. The rise in refinery margins suggests potential profitability for refining companies, while the increase in crude oil production by DoC countries may impact global oil inventories and trade flows.

Signal Level:

2/5

Germany - Release of April Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) Inflation Rate Data

Germany's Federal Statistical Office is set to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rate data for April 2025.

Why it Matters:

Preliminary data indicates that the CPI has decreased to 2.2% year-on-year in April, down from 2.3% in March. This decline is attributed to slower increases in energy prices. However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has risen to 2.9% from 2.6% in the previous month, indicating persistent underlying price pressures. The easing of headline inflation suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) may have more flexibility in its monetary policy, potentially leading to interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth. However, the uptick in core inflation signals that underlying inflationary pressures remain, which could complicate the ECB's policy decisions.

Signal Level:

2/5

Belgium - NATO Military Committee Chiefs of Defence Meeting

The NATO Military Committee is convening its Chiefs of Defence (CHODs) session at NATO Headquarters in Brussels this week.

Why it Matters:

This high-level meeting will bring together the military leaders of all 32 NATO member countries to discuss pressing security issues, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the implementation of NATO’s new defense plans, and the strengthening of the Alliance's deterrence and defense posture. The discussions will focus on enhancing military cooperation among member states, improving interoperability, and reinforcing support for Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression. The outcomes of this session will directly influence NATO's defense posture and its ability to respond effectively to threats, thereby maintaining stability and security in the Euro-Atlantic region.

Signal Level:

2/5

Thursday, May 15, 2025

World - Nakba Day

Nakba Day, observed annually on May 15, commemorates the 1948 Palestinian exodus, a pivotal event in Palestinian history. Nakba Day is observed worldwide, with rallies, vigils, and educational events organized by Palestinian solidarity groups and diaspora communities. Given the ongoing crisis in Gaza, this year’s commemorations are expected to be of increased significance.

Why it Matters:

In Israel and the Palestinian Territories, demonstrations are likely in East Jerusalem, the West Bank, and other areas. Protests may occur near Israeli settlements, military checkpoints, and border areas. Israeli security forces are expected to be on high alert, with potential restrictions on movement and increased security deployments. Clashes between protesters and security forces are possible.In the Middle East and North Africa, large rallies are expected, particularly in Palestinian communities in Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, often near refugee camps and UN offices. These demonstrations may carry anti-Western and anti-Israeli sentiments. Security incidents, including clashes with security forces, are possible. Travel disruptions and roadblocks may occur, especially in major cities. Demonstrations are also planned in Western countries including the US and Canada.

Signal Level:

4/5

World - IEA Monthly Oil Market Report

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is set to release its Monthly Oil Market Report for May 2025. This report provides comprehensive analysis and data on global oil supply and demand, price trends, and market forecasts.

Why it Matters:

Given the current geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, the IEA's projections on oil demand and supply can significantly influence market expectations. For instance, any revisions in demand forecasts or supply disruptions can lead to volatility in oil prices, impacting energy costs worldwide. Additionally, the report's insights into non-OPEC production and inventory levels are crucial for understanding the broader energy landscape.

Signal Level:

2/5

European Union - Updated Eurozone Q1 GDP Estimate and Employment Figures

Eurostat is expected to release updated estimates for the European Union's first-quarter GDP and employment figures. These revisions provide a more accurate picture of the EU's economic performance, incorporating more complete data from member states.

Why it Matters:

Revised GDP and employment data from the European Union provide a clearer picture of the region's economic health. Stronger-than-expected growth can bolster confidence in the EU's recovery post-pandemic, potentially influencing monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank. Conversely, weaker data may raise concerns about economic stagnation and could prompt discussions on fiscal stimulus measures.

Signal Level:

2/5

France - Release of April CPI Inflation Rate Data

INSEE is set to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for France for April 2025.

Why it Matters:

In France, a rise in CPI may indicate increasing inflationary pressures, potentially leading the Bank of France to consider tightening monetary policy. Conversely, stable or declining CPI figures could suggest a more stable economic environment, influencing consumer confidence and spending behaviors. Given France's significant role in the EU, its inflation data can also impact broader Eurozone economic strategies.

Signal Level:

2/5

UK - Q1 GDP Estimate

The UK's first-quarter GDP estimate for 2025 is scheduled for release on May 13, 2025, by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This preliminary data will provide insights into the economic performance of the UK from January to March 2025.

Why it Matters:

Analysts anticipate modest growth in the first quarter. The UK's fiscal position is under scrutiny, with the government projected to breach its fiscal rules due to weaker economic growth and rising fiscal pressures. In response to economic challenges, the Bank of England recently reduced interest rates to 4.25% to mitigate the impact of new U.S. tariffs.

Signal Level:

2/5

US - Release of April PPI Inflation Rate Data

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April 2025. The PPI measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.

Why it Matters:

In the previous month, March 2025, the PPI for final demand increased by 0.1%, with a year-over-year rise of 2.9% . Analysts will be closely monitoring the April data to assess whether this trend continues, indicating persistent inflationary pressures, or if the rate of increase slows, suggesting easing inflation.

Signal Level:

2/5

Friday, May 16, 2025

Japan - Release of Q1 GDP (Preliminary Estimate)

Japan’s preliminary GDP data for Q1 2025 is set to be released on May 13, 2025.

Why it Matters:

Analysts expect the economy to show a modest growth rate of around 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. This follows a period of global economic uncertainty and domestic challenges. The report will reflect Japan's response to these external pressures, including fluctuating demand for Japanese exports, particularly in the manufacturing and technology sectors. Economic activity in the first quarter will offer insights into Japan’s resilience amidst shifting global trade dynamics and the impact of its fiscal policies.

Signal Level:

2/5

Malaysia - Release of Q1 GDP

The Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) is expected to release the country’s Q1 GDP figures.

Why it Matters:

Malaysia’s GDP growth for Q1 2025 is projected to be around 4.4% year-on-year, slightly down from the previous quarter’s 5% expansion. The deceleration is attributed to weaker global trade conditions, particularly in commodities like palm oil and oil and gas. However, domestic consumption and manufacturing activity continue to show resilience, providing some support to the economy. The report will provide a clearer picture of how well Malaysia is navigating challenges such as lower commodity prices and slower external demand.

Signal Level:

2/5

Singapore - Non-Oil Domestic Exports (April) data released

Singapore's Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) data are to be published by Enterprise Singapore on May 16, the government agency responsible for promoting trade and industry in Singapore.

Why it Matters:

Singapore's Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) data for April 2025 will offer crucial insights into the country’s trade performance. NODX is expected to reflect continued resilience, with analysts forecasting a stable recovery after a 7.6% year-on-year increase in February, following a contraction in January. The April data will likely reflect strong demand for electronics and pharmaceuticals, which continue to be key drivers for Singapore’s export-driven economy. NODX serves as a leading indicator for global trade activity, particularly in high-tech manufacturing and integrated circuits.

Signal Level:

1/5

France - Q1 2025 Unemployment Rate

France’s unemployment rate for Q1 2025 will be released on May 16, 2025.

Why it Matters:

After rising to 7.4% in Q3 2024, the rate is expected to reflect ongoing challenges in the labor market, particularly among younger workers. The French economy has seen relatively slow job creation, with certain sectors, such as retail and hospitality, struggling to recover from post-pandemic conditions. The Q1 figures will provide further insights into the trajectory of the labor market and the effectiveness of the French government’s employment policies.

Signal Level:

2/5

Eurozone - Release of March Balance of Trade figures

The European Central Bank (ECB) will release the Eurozone's balance of trade data for March 2025.

Why it Matters:

This report will provide an analysis of the Eurozone’s exports and imports for the month of March, offering insight into the region’s trade surplus or deficit, and will include both goods and services trade figures.

Signal Level:

2/5

Germany - Release of Q1 Labour Market Figures

Germany's Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) will release the Q1 2025 labour market figures on May 16, 2025.

Why it Matters:

These figures will provide insights into employment trends, unemployment rates, and other key labour market indicators for the first quarter of 2025. Given Germany's status as Europe's largest economy, these statistics are crucial for assessing the health of the labour market and its implications for economic growth.

Signal Level:

2/5

Italy - Release of April CPI Inflation Rate data

The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) is set to release the April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate data.

Why it Matters:

This report will detail the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by households in Italy, providing a measure of inflation for the month of April. Higher inflation may prompt the European Central Bank to consider tightening monetary policy to prevent the economy from overheating. Conversely, low inflation could lead to more accommodative policies to stimulate economic activity.

Signal Level:

2/5

Saturday, May 17, 2025

Switzerland - Eurovision Song Contest final

The grand final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 will take place on Saturday, May 17. This year’s contest is being held in Basel, Switzerland. This marks Switzerland’s first time hosting the competition since 1989. 

Why it Matters:

Eurovision is one of Europe’s largest cultural phenomena, with deep political and social undercurrents. Voting in Eurovision traditionally combines jury evaluations and public televoting, which often reflect both musical appreciation and geopolitical alliances. Patterns such as bloc voting—where countries like the Nordic nations or former Soviet states tend to support each other—can shape outcomes and fuel debates about fairness. Additionally, the contest often becomes a platform for countries to showcase national identity or make subtle political statements through their performances or staging.

Signal Level:

1/5

Sunday, May 18, 2025

Poland - Presidential Election, First Round

Poland is set to hold the first round of its presidential election on May 18, 2025. The leading candidates include Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and a member of the Civic Coalition, and Karol Nawrocki, a historian and public intellectual.

Why it Matters:

The outcome of this election is crucial for Poland's future direction. A victory for Trzaskowski could signal support for the current government’s pro-European policies and judicial independence, potentially leading to improved relations with the EU. Conversely, a win for Nawrocki would likely reinforce the previous government's nationalist and conservative agenda. The election's significance extends beyond Poland, as it may influence the broader EU's approach to member states' adherence to democratic norms.

Signal Level:

3/5

Portugal - Snap Parliamentary Elections to be held

Portugal is scheduled to hold snap parliamentary elections on May 18, 2025, following the resignation of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro amid corruption scandals.

Why it Matters:

The Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Montenegro's Social Democratic Party (PSD), narrowly won the 2024 elections but failed to secure a majority. The Socialist Party (PS), under Pedro Nuno Santos, remains a significant contender. The far-right Chega party has also gained prominence, becoming a potential kingmaker in coalition negotiations. These elections are pivotal in determining Portugal's political trajectory. The outcome will influence the formation of a new government and its policies on immigration, healthcare, and economic reforms. The rise of Chega reflects a broader trend of increasing right-wing populism in Europe, which may impact Portugal's domestic and foreign policies.

Signal Level:

2/5

Romania - Presidential Election Runoff

Romania's presidential election runoff is set for May 18, 2025, following the annulment of the 2024 election due to alleged Russian interference.

Why it Matters:

The first round was held on May 4, 2025, with George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), securing 40.96% of the vote. He will face Nicușor Dan, an independent candidate endorsed by several pro-European parties, who received 20.99% of the vote. This election is crucial for Romania's alignment within the EU. A victory for Simion could steer Romania towards more nationalist and Eurosceptic policies, potentially straining relations with the EU and NATO. In contrast, a win for Dan may reaffirm Romania's commitment to European integration and democratic values. The election is closely watched by EU officials and international observers due to its potential impact on regional stability.

Signal Level:

3/5

Egypt - IMF Middle East and North Africa Research Conference

The IMF Middle East and North Africa Research Conference will commence on May 18, 2025, in Cairo, Egypt. This event is co-organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo.

Why it Matters:

The conference aims to bring together policymakers, economists, and researchers to discuss pressing economic issues facing the MENA region, including fiscal policy, economic diversification, and the impact of global economic trends on regional stability. The MENA region is experiencing significant economic challenges, including high public debt, inflationary pressures, and the need for structural reforms to diversify economies away from oil dependence. The IMF's involvement underscores the importance of international collaboration in addressing these issues. Egypt, as the host country, is particularly focused on implementing reforms to stabilize its economy and attract foreign investment. The outcomes of this conference are expected to influence policy decisions and shape the economic agenda for the region in the coming years.

Signal Level:

1/5

Monday, May 19, 2025

India - India's External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar begins Europe tour

From May 19 to May 24, 2025, India's External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar will visit the Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany. This visit is aimed at fortifying bilateral relations, enhancing strategic partnerships, and addressing key regional and global issues.

Why it Matters:

Dr. Jaishankar's tour underscores India's proactive approach to strengthening ties with European nations. By engaging in high-level discussions, India seeks to bolster cooperation in areas such as trade, technology, defense, and regional security, and reflects India's commitment to collaborate with Europe on global challenges.

Signal Level:

1/5

Switzerland - 78th World Health Assembly

The 78th World Health Assembly (WHA78) will convene in Geneva under the theme "One World for Health.”

Why it Matters:

Delegates from all 194 WHO member states will gather to address global health priorities, including pandemic preparedness, universal health coverage, and health equity. The Assembly will also focus on strengthening the global health workforce and examining the health impacts of climate change and pollution.

Signal Level:

2/5

United Kingdom - UK-EU Summit

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will host a UK-EU summit in London aimed at resetting post-Brexit relations.

Why it Matters:

Key outcomes are expected to include a 12-year fishing access agreement, reduced export red tape, and a security pact allowing UK access to the EU’s €125 billion defense fund. This summit marks a significant step in redefining UK-EU relations, balancing national interests with broader geopolitical considerations. The agreements reached could pave the way for a more collaborative and stable partnership between the two entities.

Signal Level:

3/5

European Union - April HICP Inflation Rate

The European Union will publish its Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rate for April, providing a measure of price stability across member states.

Why it Matters:

The HICP is a key indicator for the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions. A stable or low inflation rate may signal economic stability, while higher rates could prompt policy adjustments.

Signal Level:

2/5

Germany - March Industrial Orders Data

Germany is set to release its March industrial orders data, reflecting demand in the manufacturing sector.

Why it Matters:

This data is vital for assessing the health of Germany's industrial base, Europe's largest economy, and can provide early signals of economic trends within the EU.

Signal Level:

1/5

China - April Retail Sales and Industrial Output Data

China is set to release its April retail sales and industrial output figures, offering insights into the country's economic performance.

Why it Matters:

The divergence between industrial output and retail sales highlights the challenges China faces in balancing supply-side growth with domestic demand. The weaker retail performance may prompt policymakers to implement measures to stimulate consumption and address deflationary pressures.

Signal Level:

2/5

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Belgium - EU Foreign and Defence Ministers Meeting in Brussels

EU foreign and defence ministers will gather in Brussels for a high-level meeting chaired by Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

Why it Matters:

Ministers will discuss key issues related to EU foreign policy, defence cooperation, regional security challenges, and the broader geopolitical landscape. The meeting aims to ensure coordinated responses from EU member states to pressing international issues. The meeting will also underscore the importance of EU unity in responding to global challenges, supporting the EU's strategic autonomy, and ensuring stability within the region and beyond.

Signal Level:

2/5

Canada - G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Banff, Alberta

From May 20-21, 2025, the finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 will meet in Banff, Alberta, to discuss critical global economic issues. The agenda will cover topics such as the stability of the global economy, the economic impacts of the Ukraine conflict, financial crimes, the rise of artificial intelligence, and the effects of trade tariffs. The discussions will aim to foster international cooperation on fiscal policy and financial stability.

Why it Matters:

This G7 meeting will be pivotal in shaping the global economic framework. The ministers’ deliberations will play a crucial role in addressing the ongoing economic disruptions caused by the Ukraine conflict and other global challenges. The outcome will likely influence policy decisions that affect financial stability, trade relations, and economic recovery efforts worldwide. The meeting also underscores Canada’s role as a key player in promoting multilateral financial cooperation.

Signal Level:

2/5

Australia - Interest rate decision published

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its interest rate decision based on the RBA’s assessment of Australia’s economic conditions, including inflation rates and economic growth.

Why it Matters:

The interest rate adjustment will impact borrowing costs, consumer spending, and business investments across the country. The RBA’s interest rate decision will have significant implications for Australia’s economy. A rate hike may signal efforts to control inflation, while a rate cut could aim to stimulate growth in a slower economy. The decision will reflect the RBA’s balancing act between managing inflation and supporting sustainable economic growth, making it a key indicator for businesses, investors, and households.

Signal Level:

1/5

Canada - April Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Rate Data

Canada will release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for April 2025.

Why it Matters:

The CPI data will be a critical tool for assessing Canada’s economic health. If inflation is high, the Bank of Canada may need to adjust interest rates to control price pressures. On the other hand, low inflation could signal weak demand or economic stagnation. The CPI data will help shape both fiscal and monetary policies aimed at maintaining economic stability.

Signal Level:

1/5

Japan - Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Visit

From May 20 to May 23, 2025, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will visit Japan to discuss strengthening bilateral relations and enhancing cooperation in areas like energy, technology, and security. The visit will also focus on regional security issues and the role of Saudi Arabia in shaping global energy markets.

Why it Matters:

This visit is significant for both Saudi Arabia and Japan. For Saudi Arabia, strengthening ties with Japan is a key part of its strategy to diversify its economy under Vision 2030 and expand its diplomatic reach. For Japan, deepening cooperation with Saudi Arabia in areas such as energy and regional security is crucial as it seeks to ensure energy security and stability in the Middle East. The visit highlights the growing strategic and economic partnership between the two nations.

Signal Level:

2/5

China - Interest Rate Announcement

On May 20, 2025, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will announce its latest interest rate decision.

Why it Matters:

This announcement will provide key insights into China’s economic outlook, as the central bank adjusts rates in response to inflation, growth trends, and financial conditions.

Signal Level:

2/5

Germany - April Producer Price Index (PPI) Inflation Rate Data to be released

On May 20, 2025, Germany will release its Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data for April. The PPI measures the changes in prices that producers receive for goods before they reach consumers.

Why it Matters:

The PPI data will be significant as it provides an early indication of future consumer inflation. If producer prices are rising, it may signal future price increases at the consumer level. This data will also help the European Central Bank (ECB) assess the inflationary environment in the Eurozone and make decisions about monetary policy, such as interest rate adjustments.

Signal Level:

1/5

Taiwan - April Export Orders to be released

Taiwan will release its April 2025 export orders data on May 20.

Why it Matters:

This report will provide an early indication of global demand for Taiwan’s products, especially in high-tech sectors like semiconductors, electronics, and machinery. The data will help gauge future economic activity.

Signal Level:

1/5

European Union - May Consumer Confidence Flash Data to be Released

On May 20, 2025, the Eurozone will release its flash Consumer Confidence data for May.

Why it Matters:

This early estimate reflects how optimistic consumers are about their personal finances and the broader economy. The index will offer a snapshot of sentiment in the 19-nation currency bloc.

Signal Level:

1/5

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Belgium - EU-African Union Ministerial Meeting

The European Union and African Union will hold a ministerial meeting in Brussels to deepen cooperation across political, economic, and security dimensions

Why it Matters:

Ministers from both blocs are expected to address issues such as trade partnerships, sustainable development, migration policy, climate action, and regional peacebuilding efforts. This meeting will be critical in shaping the future of EU-Africa relations. As both regions face shared global challenges, from climate change to migration and economic inequality, enhanced collaboration will be essential. The outcomes of this meeting may influence long-term strategic partnerships, development aid programs, and investment initiatives. It will also demonstrate the EU’s commitment to equitable global partnerships and its role in supporting African-led growth and stability efforts.

Signal Level:

2/5

US - Treasury Department’s Committee on Foreign Investment Expected to Rule on Nippon Steel’s Acquisition of US Steel

The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), part of the U.S. Treasury Department, is expected to issue its recommendation on Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel. The transaction has drawn scrutiny over national security, industrial policy, and the broader implications of foreign ownership in a strategic industry.

Why it Matters:

The CFIUS decision will carry major implications for U.S. industrial policy and foreign investment regulations. A green light would signal openness to cross-border M&A even in critical sectors, while a rejection or modification could reflect growing protectionist and national security concerns. The decision will also affect U.S.–Japan economic relations and may set a precedent for future foreign investments in sensitive industries.

Signal Level:

3/5

France - Release of IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook Report

The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its annual Global Critical Minerals Outlook report.

Why it Matters:

The report is expected to evaluate supply chains for minerals essential to clean energy technologies, such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, and assess the risks and opportunities in meeting growing global demand. This report will be influential in shaping global strategies for securing critical mineral supplies essential to the energy transition. As clean technology industries expand rapidly, ensuring stable, ethical, and diversified access to these materials is becoming a strategic priority for many countries. The IEA’s findings will likely impact government policies, trade relations, and investment flows in mining and clean energy sectors globally.

Signal Level:

2/5

UK - Release of April CPI Inflation Rate Data

On May 21, 2025, the UK Office for National Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for April.

Why it Matters:

The data will reveal how prices for goods and services have changed over the month, providing a crucial snapshot of cost-of-living trends. his inflation report will be a key metric for the Bank of England as it evaluates interest rate policy and monetary conditions. High inflation could increase pressure on policymakers to tighten rates further, while moderating figures might support a more dovish stance. The CPI release will also be politically significant, as it affects household budgets and public sentiment around economic management.

Signal Level:

2/5

Japan - Release of April Trade Data

Japan will publish its trade statistics for April 2025 on May 21.

Why it Matters:

Trade data is a key barometer for Japan’s export-driven economy. Strong exports could indicate rising global demand, particularly for Japanese automobiles and electronics, while weak figures might reflect supply chain disruptions or global economic slowdowns. The data will also be important for evaluating Japan’s current account position and informing future monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Japan.

Signal Level:

1/5

European Union - EU General Affairs Council Meeting

On May 21, 2025, the EU General Affairs Council will convene in Brussels to address critical policy coordination issues across the European Union. Topics on the agenda are expected to include preparations for upcoming EU summits, rule of law monitoring, and progress on the enlargement process.

Why it Matters:

The General Affairs Council plays a central role in EU governance by preparing for European Council meetings and ensuring consistency across EU policies. This meeting will help shape the bloc’s political and institutional direction, particularly as it navigates complex challenges such as internal cohesion, rule of law concerns in member states, and potential enlargement with new candidate countries. The outcomes may influence EU unity and long-term policy priorities.

Signal Level:

2/5

Indonesia - May BI Interest Rate Decision

Bank Indonesia (BI) will announce its monetary policy decision in May 2025, likely on or around May 21.

Why it Matters:

BI’s decision will be closely watched as Indonesia navigates a complex global environment marked by inflation volatility and capital flow pressures. A rate hike could aim to control inflation or stabilize the rupiah, while a cut might support growth. The outcome will have implications for Southeast Asian financial markets, investor sentiment, and the broader regional economic outlook.

Signal Level:

2/5

Thursday, May 22, 2025

Belgium - Brussels Economic Forum

On May 22, 2025, the Brussels Economic Forum will take place, bringing together key policymakers, business leaders, and economists to discuss the future of Europe’s economy.

Why it Matters:

The Brussels Economic Forum is one of the EU’s flagship economic policy events and plays a central role in shaping debate on the bloc’s economic future. With the participation of major industry leaders and top policymakers, this year’s forum will be especially important for outlining strategies to enhance productivity, respond to geopolitical shocks, and implement EU-wide reforms. The event will also signal how aligned private sector and public institutions are on economic transformation goals.

Signal Level:

1/5

Spain - Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum Opens in Madrid

Beginning May 22, 2025, Madrid will host the Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum, a two-day event organized under the leadership of Spanish Senate President Pedro Rollán Ojeda. Lawmakers, security experts, and intelligence officials from across the globe will convene to discuss counterterrorism, cyber threats, hybrid warfare, and global intelligence cooperation.

Why it Matters:

This forum will provide an important platform for strengthening transatlantic and intergovernmental collaboration on security and intelligence matters. With rising geopolitical tensions, cybersecurity threats, and evolving forms of terrorism, the event will highlight Spain’s role in global security dialogue. The discussions may also lead to enhanced policy alignment and legislative frameworks to address emerging security challenges.

Signal Level:

1.5

United States - Trump Memecoin Gala Dinner at Trump National Golf Club

On May 22, 2025, former U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to host a gala dinner at Trump National Golf Club in Washington for the top 220 holders of the Trump-branded memecoin. The event will reportedly blend political fundraising, digital asset promotion, and personal engagement with cryptocurrency supporters.

Why it Matters:

This unconventional political event reflects the growing intersection between politics and cryptocurrency culture. Trump’s embrace of a memecoin-branded initiative could signal a broader strategy to galvanize a tech-savvy, libertarian-leaning support base. It also raises questions about the future role of digital assets in political campaigns and the regulation of cryptocurrency-based fundraising and influence.

Signal Level:

2/5

World - S&P Global/HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMI (Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US)

S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) will release their preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing and services sectors across major economies, including the Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, the UK, and the US.

Why it Matters:

PMI data serves as a leading indicator of economic health and business confidence. Investors, central banks, and policymakers closely watch these figures to anticipate trends in growth, inflationary pressures, and employment. Coordinated releases across multiple major economies will allow for comparative insights into the pace of the global economic recovery and supply chain resilience.

Signal Level:

2/5

Mexico - Release of Final Q1 GDP Figures

Mexico will release its final GDP figures for the first quarter of 2025 on May 22. The data will provide a comprehensive picture of the country’s economic performance, including sectoral breakdowns and revisions to preliminary estimates.

Why it Matters:

Final GDP data will help clarify the trajectory of Mexico’s economic recovery amid domestic challenges and global uncertainties. A strong Q1 showing could support the government’s fiscal and monetary policy direction, while weaker figures might prompt policy recalibration. Investors and economists will use the report to gauge underlying growth trends and future potential in Latin America’s second-largest economy.

Signal Level:

1/5

Friday, May 23, 2025

France - May Consumer Confidence Survey

On May 23, 2025, France will release the results of its May Consumer Confidence Survey. The survey will measure household sentiment regarding the country’s economic outlook, including perceptions of personal financial situations, unemployment, and inflation.

Why it Matters:

This survey is important as it provides insights into consumer behavior, which drives a significant portion of economic activity in France. A shift in consumer confidence could indicate changes in spending patterns, which can influence France’s GDP growth and guide policymakers in making adjustments to economic strategies.

Signal Level:

1/5

Germany - Release of Q1 GDP Estimate

On May 23, 2025, Germany will release its first-quarter GDP estimate for 2025. This report will provide an initial assessment of economic growth in Germany during the first three months of the year, shedding light on the performance of key sectors such as manufacturing, services, and exports.

Why it Matters:

Germany’s economic growth is crucial not only for the country but also for the Eurozone, as it’s the largest economy in the region. The GDP estimate will help determine the strength of Germany’s recovery from previous downturns and inform the European Central Bank’s future decisions on monetary policy.

Signal Level:

2/5

Japan - Release of April CPI Inflation Rate Data

On May 23, 2025, Japan will release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April 2025. This report will show the year-over-year inflation rate, providing a clear picture of rising costs in key sectors, particularly food and energy.

Why it Matters:

Inflation data will be closely monitored by the Bank of Japan as it assesses the necessity of maintaining or adjusting its ultra-loose monetary policies. Persistent inflation above target may prompt the central bank to consider tightening its policies, which could have broader implications for the Japanese economy and global financial markets.

Signal Level:

2/5

Saturday, May 24, 2025

Sunday, May 25, 2025

Venezuela - Parliamentary and Regional Elections to be Held

On May 25, 2025, Venezuela will conduct parliamentary and regional elections. Voters will elect all 277 seats in the National Assembly and 23 state governors, with terms commencing in January 2026. These elections were originally set for April 27 but were postponed to May 25 to allow for greater political participation . The National Electoral Council (CNE) has announced that 36 national parties, 10 regional organizations, and 8 indigenous groups are authorized to participate

Why it Matters:

The upcoming elections are set against a backdrop of political tension and international scrutiny. Opposition leader María Corina Machado has called for a boycott, labeling the elections a "farce" and citing concerns over electoral transparency . In the lead-up to the elections, the government has accused opposition figures of planning destabilizing actions, leading to the suspension of flights from Colombia . These developments have heightened concerns about the legitimacy of the electoral process and the potential for increased political unrest.

Signal Level:

4/5

Tuesday, May 27, 2025

World Health Assemby

The upcoming World Health Assembly (WHA) in May 2025 is likely to be influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding China's growing influence and related security concerns. Economic volatility, notably within China, may also impact discussions on global health financing. Furthermore, ideological divisions, exemplified by the Hong Beom-do controversy in South Korea, could affect international cooperation on health issues.

Why it Matters:

The WHA serves as a crucial forum for international cooperation on global health challenges. The confluence of geopolitical and economic factors outlined could significantly impact negotiations on pandemic preparedness, health security, and the financing of global health initiatives. This could have far-reaching consequences for global health outcomes and international stability.

Signal Level:

High

EU Committee on International Trade Delegation to Washington, D.C.

An EU Committee on International Trade delegation will visit Washington, D.C. on May 27, 2025, likely to discuss key trade issues with US counterparts. While the specific agenda is unconfirmed, the visit occurs amidst a complex geopolitical and economic landscape. Potential topics include electric vehicle trade, particularly competition with China, the influence of geopolitical tensions like those in the Indo-Pacific, and broader discussions on tariffs, investment, and digital trade regulations. The backdrop of fluctuating EV markets (e.g., BYD's stock performance), discussions on international currency influence, and alliance-building activities (e.g., US-Philippines military exercises) suggests that the discussions will have broader implications for transatlantic relations and the global economic order.

Why it Matters:

This meeting represents a key opportunity for the EU and US to address ongoing trade disputes and potentially forge new agreements in a rapidly changing global landscape. The outcomes could significantly impact transatlantic trade relations, influence global trade flows, and shape future policy decisions related to technology, investment, and economic competition, particularly with China. The intersection of economic and geopolitical concerns makes this a highly significant event.

Signal Level:

High

President Macron's State Visit to Indonesia

French President Emmanuel Macron's upcoming state visit to Indonesia in May 2025 signifies a potential deepening of bilateral ties amidst a complex geopolitical and economic landscape. While the official agenda remains unconfirmed, the visit likely centers around economic cooperation, particularly in electric vehicle (EV) battery production given Indonesia's rich nickel reserves and France's interest in securing EV supply chains. Regional security, maritime cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, and discussions on climate change are also expected to be key discussion points.

Why it Matters:

This visit carries significant geopolitical and economic implications. It underscores France's strategic intent to strengthen its presence in the Indo-Pacific amidst rising US-China tensions and increasing focus on economic influence in the region. Potential agreements related to EV battery production could reshape the global EV landscape and impact supply chain dynamics. The visit's success could bolster Indonesia's position as a key regional player and further solidify France's Indo-Pacific strategy. However, navigating historical sensitivities related to the colonial past will be crucial for Macron to achieve positive outcomes.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Joint Opec and non-Opec ministerial monitoring committee meeting to review oil production output pol

The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on 2025-05-28 will review oil production output policy. The meeting's outcome will depend on the interplay between key actors like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the US, against a backdrop of global economic and geopolitical factors. While the immediate focus is on short-term production levels, longer-term considerations like climate change and the energy transition are also becoming relevant.

Why it Matters:

Decisions made at this OPEC+ meeting will have a significant impact on global oil prices, influencing inflation, economic stability, and geopolitical dynamics. The balance of power within OPEC+, particularly the alignment between Saudi Arabia and Russia, will be crucial. The US, while not a member, will likely exert influence to try and secure outcomes favorable to its own economic and strategic interests.

Signal Level:

High

US: Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

The FOMC meeting minutes, set for release on May 28, 2025, will offer insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Market anticipation of a summer rally despite uncertain economic fundamentals and a strategist's prediction of a rangebound stock market suggest potential discussion points for the committee.

Why it Matters:

The minutes provide critical insights into the FOMC's decision-making process, offering clues about future interest rate adjustments and the Fed's assessment of the US economy. This information is crucial for investors, businesses, and policymakers alike.

Signal Level:

Medium

Germany: April labour market figures

The April 2025 German labor market figures release will be a significant event due to the potential for political spin by Chancellor Merz, whose reactions could amplify public perception regardless of the actual data. However, the provided briefing lacks contemporaneous economic data, making it difficult to accurately predict the figures' direction or overall impact.

Why it Matters:

The figures themselves provide a snapshot of Germany's economic health and employment situation. Chancellor Merz's response, given his polarizing communication style, will likely shape public discourse and potentially impact market confidence. The existing economic indicators from 2026 offer little insight into the 2025 context, hindering accurate significance prediction.

Signal Level:

Medium

France: Q1 GDP estimate and April PPI inflation rate data

The release of France's Q1 2025 GDP estimate and April 2025 PPI inflation data will be a significant economic event, providing insights into the country's economic health amidst a complex global landscape. Market reaction will be influenced by the figures themselves, as well as prevailing global economic sentiment and geopolitical tensions.

Why it Matters:

These data points are key indicators of France's economic performance and will be closely watched by investors and policymakers. The figures will provide a snapshot of the French economy's resilience in the face of global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. President Macron's response to the data will also be noteworthy, offering insight into his administration's economic priorities and communication strategy.

Signal Level:

Medium

Joint Opec and non-Opec ministerial monitoring committee meeting to review oil production output pol

The upcoming OPEC+ meeting will review oil production output policy. The meeting's outcome is uncertain due to the lack of information on key actors' positions and recent economic indicators. While some headlines point to growing concerns about climate change and its potential impact on long-term oil demand, the immediate focus will likely be on short-term market dynamics.

Why it Matters:

Decisions made at this OPEC+ meeting will directly influence global oil prices, impacting economies worldwide. Production cuts could lead to higher prices, while increases in output could lower them. The meeting's outcome will also signal OPEC+'s assessment of the current global economic outlook and its willingness to respond to market pressures.

Signal Level:

Medium

Thursday, May 29, 2025

South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Korea (BoK) will announce its interest rate decision on May 29, 2025. The decision is anticipated to be influenced by a complex interplay of domestic and international factors, including recent economic indicators (which are missing from the provided briefing), global interest rate trends, and geopolitical uncertainties.

Why it Matters:

The BoK's interest rate decision has significant implications for the South Korean economy, impacting borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, influencing inflation, and affecting the exchange rate. The decision also signals the BoK's assessment of the economic outlook and its policy stance.

Signal Level:

Medium

Secretary Rubio meets with German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul at the Department of State

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's meeting with German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will likely focus on US-China tensions, particularly concerning information warfare and economic competition. Rubio's skepticism towards China and focus on verifiable information, coupled with Germany's economic ties to China, suggest a potentially complex and significant discussion.

Why it Matters:

This meeting could influence the alignment of the US and Germany on issues related to China, including information warfare, economic policy, and potentially human rights. Given Germany's economic dependence on China and the US's strategic interest in containing Chinese influence, the outcome of this meeting could have significant geopolitical implications.

Signal Level:

Medium

UK: Bank of England April capital issuance statistics

The Bank of England's April capital issuance statistics, released on May 29, 2025, will provide a snapshot of the UK's financial market activity during the month. The figures will be influenced by a variety of factors, including the Bank of England's monetary policy, the UK government's borrowing needs, and prevailing investor sentiment, both domestically and internationally.

Why it Matters:

These statistics offer crucial insights into the health of the UK economy and financial markets. They will be closely scrutinized by investors and analysts to gauge market confidence, assess the effectiveness of monetary policy, and predict future economic trends. The data will also inform future decisions by the Bank of England, the UK government, and market participants.

Signal Level:

Medium

President Zelenskyy to meet Chancellor Merz in Berlin

President Zelenskyy's meeting with German Chancellor Merz in Berlin is expected to focus on continued support for Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict, as well as addressing the economic ramifications of the war. Chancellor Merz's assertive leadership style and Germany's stable economic condition may signal a strong yet potentially unpredictable approach to aid and negotiations.

Why it Matters:

The meeting carries significant weight due to Germany's influential role within the EU and its economic strength. The outcomes could shape future aid packages for Ukraine, influence the direction of potential peace negotiations, and impact the broader geopolitical landscape, particularly concerning relations with Russia. Chancellor Merz's leadership style introduces an element of unpredictability, making the meeting's results crucial for understanding the future trajectory of the conflict and its global implications.

Signal Level:

High

Friday, May 30, 2025

India: Q4 GDP estimate

India's Q4 2025 GDP estimate will be released on 2025-05-30. Prime Minister Modi's administration is likely to emphasize positive aspects of the data, potentially downplaying any negative indicators, given his leadership style and focus on projecting a strong image of India's economic growth.

Why it Matters:

The Q4 GDP estimate is a key indicator of India's economic performance and will be closely watched by investors and international markets. The government's presentation of the data, influenced by political considerations, will shape the narrative around India's economic trajectory. While subsequent economic indicators offer some context, their predictive value for Q4 2025 is limited, highlighting the need for more contemporaneous data. Geopolitical factors and regional tensions, particularly concerning water security, could also influence economic performance and the interpretation of the GDP estimate.

Signal Level:

Medium

Japan Retail Sales (Apr)

The April 2025 retail sales data for Japan will be a key indicator of consumer behavior amidst ongoing US-Japan trade talks and broader economic concerns. While longer-term prospects like a potential joint tech investment fund may boost confidence, the immediate impact on sales is uncertain. Prime Minister Ishiba's response will be important to observe, given his policy-focused approach.

Why it Matters:

The data offers insight into the health of the Japanese consumer and economy, particularly how trade uncertainties and potential US investments are influencing spending. It will also provide a glimpse into the effectiveness of current economic policies under Prime Minister Ishiba.

Signal Level:

Medium

Brazil: Q1 GDP estimate

Brazil's Q1 2025 GDP estimate will be a key indicator of the country's economic performance under President Lula's administration. While later economic indicators suggest potential challenges like trade deficit, inflation, and high public debt, contemporaneous data is needed for accurate assessment.

Why it Matters:

The Q1 GDP estimate will provide crucial insights into the health of the Brazilian economy and the effectiveness of Lula's economic policies. It will influence market sentiment, investor confidence, and future policy decisions. Given existing concerns about economic stability, the estimate's release will be closely watched by domestic and international stakeholders.

Signal Level:

Medium

Spain Inflation (May, prelim)

Preliminary inflation data for Spain will be released on May 30, 2025. While specific economic data for Spain is lacking in the briefing, global economic uncertainty, including market sensitivity to inflation data and the potential for renewed COVID-related disruptions, could influence the figures.

Why it Matters:

Inflation data is a key indicator of economic health and influences central bank policy decisions. The Spanish inflation data will be closely watched by markets, particularly in the context of global economic uncertainty and the potential for further COVID-related disruptions.

Signal Level:

Medium

Turkey: Q1 GDP estimate

Turkey's Q1 2025 GDP estimate is due to be released. The estimate's significance is amplified by President Erdogan's influential leadership style and the country's challenging economic situation, including high inflation and a current account deficit. This release will be closely watched for indications of economic improvement or deterioration, and its potential impact on Turkey's ability to meet NATO's defense spending target.

Why it Matters:

The GDP estimate will be a key indicator of Turkey's economic health under Erdogan's leadership and amidst a complex geopolitical landscape. It could affect Turkey's leverage in regional conflicts and international relations, as well as influence domestic policy decisions and market reactions. The release also comes in the context of a potential new NATO defense spending target, which adds another layer of scrutiny to Turkey's economic performance.

Signal Level:

Medium

Australia: April retail sales figures

April 2025 retail sales figures for Australia are due. Available economic indicators from Q1 2026 suggest a mixed economic picture with a current account deficit, moderate inflation, and substantial government debt. However, this data may not be directly applicable to April 2025. Global retail headlines focus on US market dynamics, with limited direct relevance to Australia.

Why it Matters:

Retail sales data is a key indicator of consumer spending and overall economic health. Understanding the performance of the Australian retail sector in April 2025 will provide insights into the state of the economy at that time. However, the available information presents challenges for accurate forecasting due to time discrepancies and limited relevant data.

Signal Level:

Medium

Canada: Q1 GDP estimate

Canada's Q1 2025 GDP estimate announcement, presented by Prime Minister Mark Carney, is a significant economic event. It will be analyzed within the context of Carney's post-WWII economic transformation plan and prevailing geopolitical factors, offering an early indication of the plan's effectiveness and the economy's overall trajectory.

Why it Matters:

This GDP estimate is crucial for understanding the initial impact of Carney's economic transformation plan and assessing the Canadian economy's performance in the face of global uncertainties such as a potential resurgence of COVID-19 and shifting international relations.

Signal Level:

Medium

Japan Consumer Confidence (May)

The May 2025 Japanese consumer confidence figures are expected to be influenced by a combination of international trade developments and the domestic political climate. Positive news regarding US-China trade tensions and ongoing US-Japan tariff talks could boost consumer sentiment. Prime Minister Ishiba's policy approach suggests a data-driven response to the confidence figures, with a focus on long-term economic stability.

Why it Matters:

Consumer confidence is a key indicator of economic health and can influence spending, investment, and overall economic growth in Japan. Understanding the factors impacting confidence in May 2025 can inform predictions about future economic activity and policy responses.

Signal Level:

Medium

Singapore: a key Asian defence summit, the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, begins. The three-day gathering

The 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore will be a key event for assessing the state of geopolitical relations in the Indo-Pacific, particularly US-China competition and the evolving role of other actors like France. The summit will address critical regional security challenges.

Why it Matters:

The Dialogue provides a crucial platform for high-level discussions and potential diplomatic breakthroughs on critical security issues. It offers insights into the strategies and priorities of major powers in the Indo-Pacific, and can influence the trajectory of regional stability.

Signal Level:

High

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

The 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue is expected to be dominated by concerns over Chinese espionage and its growing technological capabilities, particularly in space. The US and China are likely to clash directly over these issues, with Japan's growing economic influence in Hong Kong adding another layer of complexity to the regional security dynamics.

Why it Matters:

This Dialogue serves as a critical forum for defense ministers and security experts to discuss and address pressing security challenges in the Asia-Pacific. The confluence of espionage allegations, China's technological advancements, and shifting economic landscapes creates a high-stakes environment with the potential for escalating tensions and miscalculations. The outcomes of the dialogue could significantly shape future regional security architecture and international relations.

Signal Level:

High

Saturday, May 31, 2025

China (Mainland) NBS PMI (May

The May 2025 China NBS PMI release is a significant economic indicator that will be closely watched by global markets, given the existing economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions involving China. While the provided 2026 economic data offers limited insight into the May 2025 situation, headlines suggest concerns about a potential slowdown in the Chinese economy.

Why it Matters:

The PMI data will provide crucial insights into the health of the Chinese manufacturing sector, which plays a key role in the global economy. Given the existing concerns about a slowdown, a weak PMI could exacerbate market anxieties and potentially trigger negative economic consequences globally. A strong PMI, on the other hand, could boost confidence and alleviate some of these concerns. The release comes amidst geopolitical tensions, adding another layer of complexity to its interpretation. Xi Jinping's leadership style suggests a potential for managing the narrative around the release, making independent analysis crucial.

Signal Level:

High

Sunday, June 01, 2025

Poland Presidential Run-Off Vote

The upcoming Polish Presidential Run-Off election on June 1, 2025, presents a critical juncture for Poland's domestic and foreign policy trajectory. While specific candidate information is currently lacking, the broader geopolitical context, including rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific and potential economic volatility in the electric vehicle market, could significantly impact the election outcome and its aftermath. The potential for historical narratives and national identity to play a prominent role in the campaign, mirroring similar debates observed in South Korea, further underscores the need for close monitoring.

Why it Matters:

The outcome of the Polish Presidential election will have significant ramifications for regional stability and transatlantic relations. Poland's position within the EU, its relationship with NATO, and its stance towards Russia are all potentially at stake. Understanding the key drivers of the election and the platforms of the leading candidates is crucial for anticipating Poland's future policy direction and its potential impact on the broader geopolitical landscape. The election could also influence the future of the automotive industry in Poland, a key sector of its economy, given potential global shifts related to electric vehicle technology.

Signal Level:

High

Opec+ meeting of the eight key countries to review market conditions, conformity and compensation, a

OPEC+ meeting to decide July production levels amidst geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Why it Matters:

Decisions made at this meeting will directly impact global oil supply and prices, influencing inflation, economic growth, and geopolitical stability. The meeting's outcome will reflect the interplay of various factors, including global demand, production capacities, and the strategic interests of participating countries.

Signal Level:

Medium

Mexico Judicial Elections

Mexico's judicial elections in June 2025 require close monitoring for potential foreign interference, particularly from China. While no direct evidence currently exists, China's growing global influence, technological advancements, and alleged espionage activities raise concerns about potential attempts to influence the electoral process. Further investigation is needed to assess the specific risks and vulnerabilities related to these elections.

Why it Matters:

The integrity of Mexico's judicial system is crucial for its stability and democratic governance. Foreign interference in the judicial elections could undermine the rule of law and have long-term consequences for Mexico's political and economic landscape. Given the increasing geopolitical competition between the US and China, any potential Chinese influence in Mexico's judiciary represents a significant strategic concern for the United States.

Signal Level:

Medium

Monday, June 02, 2025

Canada, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US - S&P Global/HCOB/HSBC May manufactur

The May 2025 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data will be released on June 2, 2025, providing insights into the health of the manufacturing sector in major economies including Canada, the Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US. This data is a key indicator of economic activity and will influence market sentiment and policy decisions.

Why it Matters:

Positive PMI figures, especially in major economies like the US, Germany, and India, could boost investor confidence and strengthen their respective currencies. Conversely, weak data could trigger market downturns and prompt central banks to consider further monetary easing. The data will also influence trade negotiations and investment decisions across the globe.

Signal Level:

Medium

Canada - Prime Minister Mark Carney joins the elected heads of the provinces at the Meeting of First

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with provincial and territorial premiers at the First Ministers' Meeting in Saskatoon on June 2, 2025. This meeting will focus on nation-building infrastructure projects, interprovincial trade barriers, and navigating the Canada-US trade relationship, particularly in light of recent US tariff threats.

Why it Matters:

The meeting outcomes will significantly influence Canada's economic trajectory, impacting infrastructure development, internal trade, and the country's response to US trade pressures. Successful collaboration between the federal and provincial governments could strengthen the Canadian economy and improve national unity, while disagreements could exacerbate existing tensions, particularly regarding resource development and national economic strategy.

Signal Level:

Medium

UK - government publishes its strategic defence review

The UK government will publish its Strategic Defence Review on June 2, 2025. This review, the first under the Starmer government, is expected to outline the UK's defence priorities and spending plans in response to evolving geopolitical threats, particularly from Russia and China.

Why it Matters:

The review will likely lead to increased defence spending, focusing on modernizing the armed forces, strengthening homeland security, and reinforcing the UK's commitment to NATO. This could involve expanding the submarine program, investing in long-range weapons, and bolstering domestic munitions production. The shift towards warfighting readiness signals a more assertive UK defence posture.

Signal Level:

High

Indonesia - Inflation (May)

Indonesia's May 2025 inflation cooled to 1.60% year-on-year, down from 1.95% in April, exceeding expectations. This deflationary trend, while potentially offering short-term relief for consumers, raises concerns about weakened demand and economic stagnation in the longer term.

Why it Matters:

The lower-than-expected inflation rate may give the central bank room to further adjust monetary policy, potentially lowering interest rates to stimulate economic activity. However, continued deflation could signal deeper economic issues and may require additional government stimulus to boost demand and prevent a prolonged slowdown. President Prabowo will need to address these economic challenges while navigating political pressures and maintaining stability.

Signal Level:

Medium

Results: The Campbell’s Company Q3, Sirius Real Estate FY

This event encompasses the release of Campbell's Company's Q3 2025 earnings results and Sirius Real Estate's full-year results for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. These reports will offer insights into the performance of a major U.S. food company and a prominent European real estate firm, respectively, providing valuable data points on consumer behavior, economic trends, and market conditions.

Why it Matters:

Campbell's Q3 results will indicate the health of the consumer staples sector and the impact of inflation on consumer spending. Strong results could boost investor confidence, while weak performance may signal broader economic headwinds. Sirius Real Estate's FY results will shed light on the commercial real estate market in Germany and the UK, with potential implications for investment flows and economic growth in those regions.

Signal Level:

Medium

Mexico - Business Confidence (May)

The May 2025 Mexico Business Confidence Index will reveal the sentiment of Mexican businesses regarding the current and future economic climate. This index is crucial as it reflects anticipated investment, production, and employment trends, offering insights into Mexico's short-term economic trajectory.

Why it Matters:

Given the current economic headwinds, including U.S. tariffs and slowing growth, a low business confidence reading will likely further depress investment and hiring, potentially exacerbating the economic slowdown. Conversely, a higher-than-expected reading could signal resilience and potentially attract investment, mitigating some of the negative impacts of the current economic context. The government's response to the index, particularly any new policy announcements or adjustments to existing plans, will be crucial for influencing future economic activity.

Signal Level:

Medium

Poland - two-day EU-US Justice and Home Affairs ministerial meeting begins in Warsaw

The EU-US Justice and Home Affairs ministerial meeting in Warsaw on June 2-3, 2025, will bring together officials to discuss crucial issues such as combating crime, managing migration flows, and counterterrorism measures. This meeting is significant for transatlantic cooperation on security and justice issues.

Why it Matters:

The meeting will likely lead to stronger collaboration between the EU and US on law enforcement and border security. Potential outcomes include new agreements on data sharing, joint operations against organized crime, and coordinated strategies for migration management. Policy impacts could involve changes to visa regulations, data protection laws, and security protocols.

Signal Level:

Medium

UK - British Retail Consortium May Economic Monitor report and Nationwide May House Price Index

The UK's May economic data reveals a mixed picture. While house prices saw a slight annual increase according to the Nationwide House Price Index, consumer confidence and retail sales data from the British Retail Consortium's May Economic Monitor will offer further insights into consumer spending and overall economic health.

Why it Matters:

The upcoming BRC data will be crucial in assessing the state of the UK economy. Stronger than expected retail sales and consumer confidence could signal continued economic recovery, while weaker figures may increase pressure on the Bank of England to adjust interest rates and the government to implement further economic support measures. The slight rise in house prices may reflect continued underlying demand, but affordability remains a concern amidst high inflation.

Signal Level:

Medium

Indonesia - Trade (April)

Indonesia's April trade data will be released soon, offering insights into the country's economic performance under President Prabowo Subianto. Given recent economic indicators, the trade data will be crucial in assessing the impact of his policies and global economic conditions.

Why it Matters:

The April trade data will significantly influence market sentiment and future policy decisions. Strong trade performance could bolster investor confidence and support Prabowo's ambitious growth targets. Conversely, weak data may necessitate adjustments to fiscal and monetary policies. The data's impact on the Indonesian rupiah and its trade relationships with key partners, like China and the US, will be closely watched.

Signal Level:

Medium

Tuesday, June 03, 2025

Switzerland - Inflation (May)

Switzerland's May 2025 inflation figures are due to be released on June 3, 2025. These figures will be important indicators of the Swiss economy's health and the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) future monetary policy.

Why it Matters:

If inflation remains low or negative, the SNB may further loosen monetary policy, potentially pushing interest rates further into negative territory and influencing the exchange rate. Conversely, a surprise uptick in inflation could indicate a shift in the economic outlook and potentially impact investment decisions.

Signal Level:

Medium

EU - flash May inflation estimate and April unemployment data

The EU will release its flash May inflation estimate and April unemployment data on June 2, 2025. This follows steady inflation at 2.2% in April, slightly above the ECB's target.

Why it Matters:

The inflation data will significantly influence the ECB's monetary policy decisions, potentially impacting interest rates and borrowing costs across the Eurozone. Stronger than expected inflation could lead to further rate hikes, while weaker figures may prompt a pause or even a reversal of tightening measures. Unemployment data will offer insights into the health of the European labor market, influencing consumer spending and overall economic growth projections.

Signal Level:

Medium

Spain - Unemployment Change (May)

Spain's Unemployment Change for May 2025 will be released on June 3, 2025. This data point reflects the change in the number of unemployed individuals in Spain compared to the previous month and serves as a key indicator of the country's economic health.

Why it Matters:

A significant decrease in unemployment, exceeding the forecasted 6.5K decrease, could bolster consumer spending and strengthen the Euro. Conversely, an increase or a smaller-than-expected decrease could signal economic weakness and negatively impact the Euro.

Signal Level:

Medium

South Korea - Inflation (May)

South Korea's May inflation figures are due on June 2, 2025. This release holds significant weight as it will indicate the trajectory of the country's economy, particularly given the ongoing political and economic uncertainty following the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol and the upcoming June 3rd presidential election.

Why it Matters:

The inflation data will influence the Bank of Korea's monetary policy decisions, potentially impacting interest rates and exchange rates. High inflation could necessitate tighter monetary policy, increasing borrowing costs and potentially dampening economic growth. Low inflation could prompt further easing measures to stimulate the economy but risk exacerbating household debt and currency volatility. The inflation outcome will also inform investors' decisions and influence the economic outlook for the remainder of 2025, impacting trade relationships particularly with the U.S. under newly re-elected protectionist President Trump.

Signal Level:

Medium

South Korea: presidential election

South Korea's snap presidential election on June 3, 2025, is being held following the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol after his attempt to impose martial law. The election will determine South Korea's political direction and its approach to critical domestic and international issues, including economic recovery, relations with the U.S., China, and North Korea, and the ongoing threat of political violence.

Why it Matters:

Lee Jae-myung's likely victory will empower the Democratic Party and its agenda, potentially leading to constitutional amendments and policy shifts focused on social welfare and inter-Korean relations. The election outcome will significantly impact South Korea's relationship with the US, requiring the new president to navigate the complexities of the Trump administration’s protectionist policies and North Korea's nuclear threat. The political divide highlighted by the martial law incident and subsequent election will continue to pose a challenge to national unity and stability.

Signal Level:

High

Türkiye - Inflation (May)

Turkey's May 2025 inflation figures have been released, indicating a rise to 75.45%, the highest since November 2022. This increase is driven by rising food, non-alcoholic beverage, housing, and utility costs, exceeding market expectations and government predictions.

Why it Matters:

The surge in inflation will likely necessitate further monetary tightening by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) to stabilize the economy. This could lead to slower economic growth and potentially impact Türkiye's international trade relationships. The government's prediction that this marks the peak of inflation and that disinflation will begin in June will be closely watched by international markets.

Signal Level:

Medium

OECD Economic Outlook

The OECD Economic Outlook, released on June 2, 2025, will provide economic forecasts for major economies, including China, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany. This report will be highly influential, impacting policy decisions and market reactions globally.

Why it Matters:

The forecasts will likely influence central bank policies regarding interest rates and government spending in the coming months. Given recent global events like rising inflation in some countries and geopolitical tensions, the outlook's projections will be crucial for investors and businesses planning future strategies. Discrepancies between the OECD's projections and national expectations could create market volatility.

Signal Level:

Medium

US - April Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Jolts) data

The April 2025 JOLTS report will provide crucial insights into the US labor market's health, influencing market sentiment and potentially impacting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.

Why it Matters:

A significant deviation from the expected trend in job openings could impact market sentiment and influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Continued strength in the labor market may fuel inflation, prompting tighter monetary policy, while weakness could signal a potential economic slowdown. This data will be crucial for businesses in their hiring and investment decisions.

Signal Level:

Medium

United States - Factory Orders (Apr)

The April 2025 U.S. Factory Orders report will reveal insights into the health of the manufacturing sector, providing crucial information on new orders for durable and non-durable goods. This data will offer a clearer picture of economic activity following the implementation of the 10% reciprocal tariffs.

Why it Matters:

A significant decline in factory orders could signal weakening demand and potential economic slowdown, impacting investment decisions and potentially influencing future policy adjustments by the Trump administration. The report will be closely analyzed for the effects of recent tariffs and their impact on various manufacturing sectors.

Signal Level:

Medium

China - Caixin May manufacturing PMI data

The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI for May 2025 has been released, indicating continued growth in the manufacturing sector, albeit at a slightly faster pace than the previous month. This data provides insights into the health of China's manufacturing sector and has implications for the broader economic outlook, particularly considering recent concerns about sluggish consumer spending and the real estate downturn.

Why it Matters:

The continued expansion suggested by the Caixin PMI, despite headwinds like supply shortages and a potential slowdown in export orders, could signal resilience in the Chinese economy. However, the divergence between this data and the official NBS Manufacturing PMI, which showed contraction, warrants careful consideration. Policymakers will likely monitor these trends closely as they navigate economic challenges and aim to stimulate domestic demand.

Signal Level:

Medium

Wednesday, June 04, 2025

UK - International Reserves data

The UK will release its International Reserves data for June 2025. This data, published by the Bank of England, details the UK's holdings of foreign currencies and other reserve assets. Recent economic indicators show a GDP growth of 0.7% in Q1 2025, inflation at 3% in January 2025, and unemployment at 4.5% in February 2025. The UK government debt has risen to nearly 100% of GDP, and market instability has led to increasing borrowing costs.

Why it Matters:

The June reserves data will provide insights into the UK's ability to manage its currency and debt amid rising global economic uncertainty and US trade tariffs. Depending on the figures, the data may impact market confidence in the UK economy and influence the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government will face pressure to address the economic challenges while delivering on its promises to improve public services and reduce the cost of living.

Signal Level:

Medium

Belgium: European Commission publishes report on Bulgaria adopting the euro

The European Commission is set to publish a report on June 2, 2025, regarding Bulgaria's adoption of the euro, potentially paving the way for the country to join the Eurozone as the 21st member on January 1, 2026. This follows Bulgaria's formal request for an assessment of its readiness earlier this year and comes despite some internal political resistance and public concerns about inflation.

Why it Matters:

Bulgaria's adoption of the euro will likely enhance trade and investment with other Eurozone members, reduce transaction costs, and offer greater economic stability. However, Bulgaria's influence on European Central Bank monetary policy will be limited due to its small economic size relative to other member states. The move also carries risks related to the loss of independent monetary policy and potential inflationary pressures.

Signal Level:

Medium

Canada - interest rate announcement

The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision on June 4, 2025. This comes after several rate cuts since June 2024, with the last cut in March bringing the rate to 2.75% amidst a slowing economy and trade tensions with the US. Inflation remains a concern, reported at 2.6% in March 2025.

Why it Matters:

A rate cut could stimulate economic growth and provide relief to consumers facing high debt levels, potentially boosting the housing market. However, it may also exacerbate inflation and weaken the Canadian dollar, especially if a trade war with the US escalates. Maintaining the current rate would signal caution amidst economic uncertainty but may not be enough to spur significant growth.

Signal Level:

Medium

US - Beige Book published

The Beige Book, officially known as the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions, will be released on June 2, 2025. This report, published eight times a year by the Federal Reserve, provides insights into current economic conditions across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts. The report will summarize anecdotal information gathered from various sources, including business contacts, economists, and market experts, and will be used by the Federal Open Market Committee in its policy decisions.

Why it Matters:

The Beige Book's findings will likely influence market sentiment and could affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. If the report indicates stronger-than-expected economic growth, the Fed may be more inclined to maintain interest rates. Conversely, a weaker outlook could lead to a more dovish stance. The report's insights on key sectors like manufacturing, consumer spending, and labor markets will also offer valuable information for businesses and investors.

Signal Level:

Medium

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 1)

The ECB's Governing Council meeting on June 4, 2025, faces a complex decision-making environment influenced by potential deflationary pressures (signaled by BYD's price cuts) and a shifting geopolitical landscape concerning international currency dynamics and potential G7 economic collaboration (evidenced by Lagarde's comments and the Italy-Japan Prime Ministerial phone call).

Why it Matters:

The outcome of this meeting will have significant implications for the Eurozone and global economies. The ECB's monetary policy decisions will be closely watched by markets and will influence investment, borrowing, and economic growth within the Eurozone. Furthermore, the ECB's stance could impact international currency markets and influence the actions of other central banks.

Signal Level:

High

Australia - Q1 GDP estimate

Australia's Q1 2025 GDP estimate will be released on June 2, 2025. This follows Q4 2024 GDP growth of 0.6%, exceeding expectations and reaching a two-year high driven by increased household spending and private investment. Recent economic indicators show an unemployment rate of 4.1% in April 2025 and an interest rate of 4.1% as of April 2025.

Why it Matters:

The Q1 GDP estimate will significantly impact market sentiment and future monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia. A strong positive result could lead to increased investor confidence and potentially influence the upcoming federal election. Conversely, weak growth could raise concerns about the economy's resilience amid global uncertainty, including the ongoing impact of the Trump trade war.

Signal Level:

Medium

Thursday, June 05, 2025

Germany - April manufacturing orders data

Germany's April 2025 manufacturing orders data will be released soon. This follows a slight dip of 0.2% in manufacturing orders in April 2024 and a period of fluctuating order levels influenced by large-scale orders. Manufacturing production saw a slight increase in April 2025, but overall business conditions remain below 50, indicating a slow recovery.

Why it Matters:

The upcoming data release will be closely watched by investors and policymakers as it will provide a crucial update on the health of the German economy. Continued weakness in manufacturing could prompt further stimulus measures, while stronger-than-expected data could boost confidence and investment. Chancellor Merz's upcoming meeting with US President Trump, amidst existing trade tensions and disagreements over support for Ukraine, could significantly impact German industrial output, particularly through trade policy adjustments. Further, Merz's stance on providing long-range weapons to Ukraine could influence geopolitical stability and Germany's relationship with Russia.

Signal Level:

Medium

Burundi - parliamentary and local elections

Burundi will hold parliamentary and local elections on June 5, 2025. These elections follow the contested 2020 elections and occur amidst political tensions and economic challenges, including high poverty and currency devaluation. Key opposition figures have been banned from participating, raising concerns about the inclusivity and fairness of the process.

Why it Matters:

The election outcome will significantly impact Burundi's political landscape and stability in the lead-up to the 2027 presidential elections. A CNDD-FDD victory will likely solidify the ruling party's grip on power, potentially exacerbating existing tensions. International scrutiny of the elections will be high, particularly given the recent banning of key opposition figures and the potential for election-related violence. The new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, may prioritize the situation in Burundi as part of his focus on European unity and security, given potential ramifications for regional stability.

Signal Level:

Medium

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 2), followed by press confer

The ECB's upcoming Governing Council meeting and press conference are crucial for gauging the central bank's next monetary policy steps. While external geopolitical events appear unconnected, internal data on Eurozone inflation, growth, and unemployment will be key drivers. President Lagarde's commentary, potentially referencing the Euro's international standing, will heavily influence market perception and future Euro valuation.

Why it Matters:

This meeting will directly impact Eurozone interest rates, influencing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. Lagarde's communication will shape market expectations and potentially affect the Euro's exchange rate, impacting international trade and investment flows. Her strategic perspective on the Euro's global role adds another layer of complexity to the event's significance.

Signal Level:

High

Belgium - NATO defence ministers meeting in Brussels

NATO defense ministers will meet in Brussels on June 3-4, 2025. This meeting follows a previous defense ministerial in February 2025 and comes amid concerns about European security, the war in Ukraine, and rising inflation in Belgium.

Why it Matters:

The meeting will likely focus on strengthening NATO's collective defense posture in response to the ongoing war in Ukraine and other security challenges. Discussions may involve increased defense spending, standardization of military equipment, and enhanced cooperation with the EU on defense initiatives. Policy impacts could include new commitments to military aid for Ukraine and reinforced air and missile defense systems in Eastern Europe.

Signal Level:

Medium

US - April international trade in goods and services

The US international trade in goods and services for April 2025 will be released on June 5, 2025. The March 2025 report indicated a growing trade deficit of $140.5 billion, driven by a surge in imports outpacing exports. This trend follows a pattern of increasing deficits, with the year-to-date deficit up 92.6% compared to the same period in 2024.

Why it Matters:

The continued widening trade deficit may prompt the Trump administration to implement further protectionist measures, such as increased tariffs or renegotiated trade agreements, especially with China. This approach aligns with Trump's "America First" agenda, championed by Treasury Secretary Bessent, and may impact international relations and global trade flows. \

Signal Level:

Medium

UK - May Decision Maker Panel research

The UK's May Decision Maker Panel (DMP) research, a survey of Chief Financial Officers, will be released on June 5, 2025. This research will provide insights into business sentiment and expectations amidst the current economic climate characterized by high inflation (136.1 as of March 2025) and rising interest rates (4.4577 as of April 2025). Recent political developments, such as the upcoming Spending Review and discussions surrounding welfare policies, will likely influence business outlook.

Why it Matters:

The DMP results will influence monetary and fiscal policy decisions. Negative sentiment could lead to further economic contraction, impacting investment and employment. Conversely, positive expectations may encourage growth and investment. The results may also influence the political landscape, particularly if they contradict the current government's economic narrative.

Signal Level:

Medium

China - Caixin May services PMI data

The Caixin China May Services PMI is forecasted to be released on June 5, 2025. This data will provide insights into the health of China's services sector following an acceleration of service activity expansion in May 2024, reaching a 10-month high and driving employment growth. This upcoming release follows recent concerns about China's economic slowdown, highlighted by the 3% GDP growth in 2022 and a modest growth target of around 5% for 2023.

Why it Matters:

A strong PMI reading will signal continued recovery in the services sector, boosting confidence in China's overall economic growth and potentially impacting global markets positively, particularly for countries like Australia with strong trade ties to China. Conversely, a weak reading will intensify concerns about China's economic recovery, influencing investment decisions and potentially impacting global commodity prices. President Xi Jinping's emphasis on high-quality development and support for the private sector suggests the government will closely monitor this data and potentially adjust policies to address any weaknesses revealed.

Signal Level:

Medium

Australia - Trade (Apr)

Australia's April 2025 trade data shows retail turnover falling 0.1% month-on-month but rising 3.8% year-on-year. This comes amidst a backdrop of global market volatility caused by US tariff announcements, although Australian equities have shown resilience, buoyed by strong performance in the tech and communications sectors.

Why it Matters:

The RBA is expected to cut interest rates further in response to slowing inflation and concerns about global growth. The AANZFTA Upgrade, which entered into force on April 21, 2025, will offer new trade opportunities for Australian businesses within Southeast Asia, potentially mitigating some of the negative impacts of global trade tensions. However, ongoing uncertainty around US trade policy and its potential impact on global growth remains a key risk for the Australian economy.

Signal Level:

Medium

EU - European Central Bank interest rate announcement

The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision on June 5, 2025. This follows a series of rate cuts by the ECB in recent months, with the most recent cut in April bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. Recent economic indicators from Japan point to a mixed economic outlook, with a slight increase in unemployment in March 2025 to 2.5%.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's decision will significantly impact the eurozone and global economies. A further rate cut could weaken the euro, potentially boosting exports but also risking inflation. This decision will influence other central banks' policies and could affect investment flows into and out of the eurozone, impacting global financial markets. Japan, with its close trade ties to Europe, will be particularly sensitive to shifts in the euro's value and European economic growth.

Signal Level:

Medium

Italy - Retail Sales (Apr)

Italy's April 2025 retail sales figures will be released on June 2, 2025. In March, retail sales decreased by 0.5% compared to the previous month, against a forecast of a 0.2% increase. This follows a 0.1% rise in February and contributes to a declining trend in the first quarter of 2025, influenced by factors such as inflation (122.5 in March) and an interest rate of 2.39%.

Why it Matters:

The April retail sales data will be a key indicator of consumer confidence and the overall health of the Italian economy under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's leadership. Weak retail sales could signal a further economic slowdown, potentially impacting government policies and increasing pressure on the ruling coalition. Stronger than expected figures may provide a boost to consumer confidence and support the current administration.

Signal Level:

Medium

Friday, June 06, 2025

Japan - Consumption Activity Index

Japan's Consumption Activity Index (CAI) will be released, providing insights into recent consumer spending trends. This follows a period of economic renormalization with stronger wage growth and increased inflation, but also challenges from elevated commodity prices and global economic headwinds, as detailed in Deloitte's April 2025 economic outlook. Consumer confidence has seen a slight rebound in May 2025 to 32.8, recovering from a multi-year low in April, suggesting a potential for increased spending.

Why it Matters:

The CAI's results will offer valuable insights into the health of the Japanese economy, influencing policy decisions by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), particularly regarding the continuation of its tightening cycle. A strong CAI could indicate sustained economic recovery, potentially leading to further policy normalization. Conversely, a weak CAI might suggest continued economic sluggishness, prompting the BOJ to maintain its accommodative stance and delay further rate hikes.

Signal Level:

Medium

Japan - Household Spending (Apr)

Japan's April household spending data will be released on June 5, 2025. Recent economic indicators show a mixed picture, with a 1.1% GDP growth in Q4 2024, a low unemployment rate of 2.5% as of March 2025, but persistent inflation above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, impacting real wages and potentially household spending. March household spending saw a decrease to 0.4%, down from 3.5% in February.

Why it Matters:

The April household spending data will be a crucial indicator for assessing the health of Japan's consumer economy and the effectiveness of government measures to combat inflation and support growth. Weaker than expected spending could prompt further government stimulus or adjustments to monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. The release also comes amid rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent establishment of the ROK-US-Japan Trilateral Coordinating Secretariat, which could influence Japan's economic outlook and trade relations.

Signal Level:

Medium

France - Trade and Industrial Production (Apr)

France will release its April 2025 trade and industrial production figures on June 2, 2025. Recent data shows that industrial production increased by 0.18 percent year-on-year in March 2025, after a slight rebound in the first quarter following a contraction in Q4 2024. The business climate remains gloomy overall, with some sectors like manufacturing showing recent improvements in sentiment while others, like retail, are experiencing declines.

Why it Matters:

The April data will be a key indicator of France's economic health and resilience amidst global uncertainties, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and tensions in Gaza, which President Macron has highlighted as potential threats to Western credibility. Depending on the outcome, the figures could influence government policies, market sentiment, and Macron's political standing. A negative result may necessitate further economic stimulus or adjustments to the 2025 budget, potentially impacting the fragile political balance.

Signal Level:

Medium

UK - Halifax House Price Index

The Halifax House Price Index for April 2025 showed a 0.3% monthly increase, reaching an average house price of £297,781. This represents a 3.2% annual increase, the highest so far this year, and follows six months of relative price stability. The market defied predictions of a 0.1% fall, and the annual growth ticked up from 2.9% in March.

Why it Matters:

The higher-than-predicted rise in house prices could indicate a resurgence in the UK housing market despite the current economic challenges. This may influence the Bank of England's interest rate policy, with potential implications for inflation and borrowing costs. Prime Minister Starmer's government will likely monitor these figures closely as they consider future economic policies, particularly those aimed at housing affordability.

Signal Level:

Medium

EU - Q1 GDP estimate

The EU's Q1 2025 GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, matching the initial estimate, but down from the Eurozone's initial estimate of 0.4%. Year-on-year, the EU GDP grew by 1.4% and the Eurozone by 1.2%, with Ireland experiencing the highest growth at 10.9%. This comes against a backdrop of various global economic and political events, including ongoing discussions about US trade policies and fiscal challenges within individual member states.

Why it Matters:

The modest GDP growth indicates a slow but continuing recovery in the EU, with potential positive impacts on employment and investment. However, risks remain, including the potential for US trade policies to negatively impact EU exports and the political and fiscal challenges in countries like France and Germany. The varying growth rates across member states could exacerbate existing economic disparities within the EU, requiring targeted policy interventions.

Signal Level:

Medium

Eurozone - Retail Sales (Apr)

The Eurozone retail sales figures for April 2025 will be released on June 2, 2025, providing insights into consumer spending trends across major economies including Italy, Germany, Spain, France, and the Netherlands. This release follows recent economic data indicating slowing growth and persistent challenges in the Eurozone, along with political tensions between Italy and France related to Ukraine.

Why it Matters:

The April retail sales data will be a key indicator of the health of the Eurozone consumer and will influence future monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank. Stronger-than-expected results could bolster confidence and support continued recovery, while weak figures may raise concerns about economic stagnation and further complicate policy responses. Political tensions, particularly between France and Italy, could impact coordinated economic strategies and responses to the ongoing challenges in Ukraine.

Signal Level:

Medium

Germany - Trade and Industrial Production (Apr)

Germany's April trade and industrial production figures will be released on June 2, 2025. These figures will follow a period of economic turbulence, marked by US tariff threats, global uncertainty, and a declining trend in German industrial output. Recent data suggests industrial production decreased by 4% year-on-year in February 2025 and decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in March 2025.

Why it Matters:

The April data will be a key indicator of the health of the German economy and its resilience to global headwinds. Negative figures could further weaken market confidence and prompt calls for additional government stimulus. Chancellor Merz's upcoming meeting with US President Trump may offer an opportunity to address trade concerns and potentially mitigate some of the negative impacts on German industry. However, given recent political clashes between the two leaders, reaching a mutually beneficial agreement may be challenging.

Signal Level:

Medium

US - May employment report

The May 2025 US employment report could indicate the addition of 177,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts but showing a hiring slowdown compared to the previous month's revised 185,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% in April, consistent with March's figures and the trend since mid-2024. Key sectors like healthcare and transportation saw growth, while manufacturing and federal government jobs experienced declines, possibly reflecting the impacts of new tariffs and spending cuts.

Why it Matters:

The slowing job growth, combined with recent economic indicators like rising inflation and a growing trade deficit, warrants close observation. The Trump administration may face increased pressure to address economic concerns. VP Vance's influence within the administration and Congress could be pivotal in navigating policy responses and mitigating potential negative economic consequences. The potential impacts of policy changes concerning immigration and tariffs require careful consideration. Declines in research and development roles point towards federal spending cuts.

Signal Level:

Medium

Saturday, June 07, 2025

Monaco – French President Macron’s State Visit

French President Emmanuel Macron will conduct a state visit to Monaco on June 7-8, 2025. This visit, the first by a French president since 1984, will focus on strengthening bilateral ties and addressing shared concerns like marine conservation and the blue economy.

Why it Matters:

This visit will likely enhance cooperation between France and Monaco on maritime issues, potentially leading to joint projects and investments in areas like thalassothermal energy and ocean conservation. Given the economic context, discussions may also include strategies for economic stability and growth. The visit reinforces France's diplomatic influence within Europe.

Signal Level:

Medium

Latvia – Municipal Elections

Latvia's municipal elections are scheduled for June 7, 2025. These elections will determine the composition of local councils across the country, including the capital city of Riga. The elections are taking place against a backdrop of moderate economic recovery, with GDP projected to grow by 2.5% in 2025 and inflation expected to ease by the end of the year.

Why it Matters:

The results of these elections will significantly shape local policies and development initiatives across Latvia's municipalities. The elections will serve as an important indicator of public sentiment towards the current government and opposition parties. Shifts in local power dynamics could influence national-level political alliances and future policy decisions.

Signal Level:

Medium

Sunday, June 08, 2025

Italy Referendum on Citizenship and Employment

A referendum on citizenship and employment is scheduled for June 8, 2025, in Italy. The specific content of the referendum is currently unknown, but it has the potential to significantly alter Italy's socio-political landscape, impacting immigration policies, labor laws, and social welfare programs. This could lead to ripple effects on Italy's economic stability, social cohesion, and international relations.

Why it Matters:

The outcome of this referendum could reshape Italy's domestic policies related to citizenship and employment, with potential flow-on effects on its economy and relations with international actors like the EU. Given the current volatility of global markets (exemplified by recent stock fluctuations), any political or economic instability stemming from the referendum could be amplified, potentially impacting the broader European and global landscape. The thematic parallel of reevaluating historical narratives, as seen in the Hong Beom-do bust controversy in South Korea, suggests a potential ideological dimension to the referendum which requires further scrutiny.

Signal Level:

High

Monday, June 09, 2025

Taiwan Trade (May)

Taiwan's May trade data will likely reflect ongoing negotiations with the US regarding tariffs, initially proposed at 32% on most Taiwanese goods, and a potential additional tariff on semiconductors and electronics. Taiwan's Q1 2025 GDP growth was revised higher, indicating a strong economic performance, with exports to the US being a key driver, outpacing reduced trade with China, Japan, and Europe. This follows a trend of increasing exports driven by IT, particularly relating to AI.

Why it Matters:

The outcome of the US-Taiwan trade talks will significantly impact Taiwan's economy, particularly its export-oriented sectors. A stronger Taiwan dollar, while potentially reducing the trade surplus with the US, could negatively affect the competitiveness of Taiwanese exports. The potential for semiconductor tariffs poses a significant risk to Taiwan's dominant position in this crucial industry.

Signal Level:

Medium

China Trade (May)

China will release May trade data on June 9, 2025. This follows recent high-level trade talks between China and the US in London, aimed at resolving ongoing trade disputes. The most recent inflation data for China (April 2025) stands at 115.03.

Why it Matters:

The trade data will likely reflect the impact of recent tariff reductions agreed upon by the US and China. Positive trade figures could signal a strengthening of economic ties and reduced tensions, while negative figures may indicate persistent challenges in the bilateral relationship. The outcome will influence future trade negotiations and potentially impact global economic stability.

Signal Level:

Medium

France - UN Ocean Conference

The UN Ocean Conference, co-hosted by France and Costa Rica, will take place in Nice, France from June 9-13, 2025. This summit will focus on critical issues facing the world's oceans including rising temperatures, plastic pollution, overfishing, and deep-sea mining. France's recent political instability and economic challenges, including a projected GDP growth of only 0.7% in 2025, may impact its ability to address these challenges effectively.

Why it Matters:

The conference will likely lead to increased international pressure on countries like France to commit to stronger ocean protections and ratify the High Seas Treaty. President Macron will be under scrutiny to demonstrate leadership on these issues, despite France's domestic economic and political instability, which could hinder its commitment of resources or enforcement of new regulations. The outcomes of the summit could influence future international policy on ocean conservation and resource management.

Signal Level:

Medium

Japan GDP (Q1, final)

Japan's Q1 2025 GDP contracted by 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, marking the first contraction in a year and falling short of the anticipated 0.1% decline. This follows a 0.6% growth in Q4 2024. Factors contributing to the contraction include decreased exports and flat private consumption, while business investment saw an increase.

Why it Matters:

Prime Minister Ishiba will likely face increased pressure to address the economic contraction, potentially through fiscal stimulus or policy adjustments. This economic slowdown could impact Japan's trade balance and relations with major trading partners like the US and China. The simultaneous military exercises by China near Taiwan could exacerbate regional tensions and further complicate Japan's economic and security outlook.

Signal Level:

Medium

US-China Trade Talks

US and Chinese officials will meet in London on June 9, 2025, for a second round of trade talks aimed at resolving the ongoing trade dispute. These talks follow a preliminary agreement reached in Geneva last month and a recent phone call between President Trump and President Xi, where differing views on the talks' success were expressed.

Why it Matters:

The talks could lead to a reduction in tariffs and a stabilization of global markets. However, failure to reach an agreement could escalate the trade war, negatively impacting both economies and increasing global uncertainty. The establishment of a long-term consultative mechanism could foster future cooperation, but success depends on addressing core disagreements, such as trade deficits and market access.

Signal Level:

Medium

Mexico Inflation (May)

Mexico's May 2025 inflation figures will be released on June 9, 2025. In April 2025, headline inflation was 3.93% year-over-year, while core inflation was also 3.93%. One-year-ahead inflation expectations for May 2025 are 3.59%.

Why it Matters:

The inflation data will influence President Sheinbaum's administration's economic policies. If inflation remains above the central bank's target, further interest rate cuts may be delayed. Continued high inflation could hinder economic growth and potentially impact the Mexican peso.

Signal Level:

Medium

China - CPI and PPI Data (May)

China's May CPI and PPI data will be released on June 9, 2025. In April, CPI remained flat year-on-year at -0.1%, while PPI deepened its decline to -2.7% year-on-year. Recent economic indicators point to persistent deflationary pressures in the Chinese economy.

Why it Matters:

The release of this data will likely signal the continuing challenges faced by the Chinese economy, including sluggish consumer demand and declining producer prices. Policymakers may respond with further stimulus measures to bolster domestic demand and address deflationary risks. These measures may include further easing of monetary policy and targeted fiscal support.

Signal Level:

Medium

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1, final)

Saudi Arabia's Q1 2025 GDP growth will be finalized on June 9, 2025. Preliminary estimates indicate a 2.7% annual growth, driven by non-oil sectors (4.2% growth) and government services (3.2% growth), while oil activities contracted by 1.4%. This growth comes amidst Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030 diversification efforts and GASTAT's data revision for international alignment.

Why it Matters:

The final GDP data will signal the effectiveness of Vision 2030 in diversifying the Saudi economy and reducing reliance on oil. Continued growth in non-oil sectors will encourage further investment and development in these areas, potentially attracting foreign capital. The oil sector's performance will be closely watched for its impact on government revenue and overall economic stability.

Signal Level:

Medium

Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Brazil Inflation (May)

Brazil's May 2025 inflation data will be released on June 10, 2025. In April 2025, monthly inflation was 0.43%, while the yearly inflation rate was 5.53%. Economists have forecasted a 5.51% inflation rate for the year 2025, slightly down from earlier predictions of 5.53%. The Central Bank of Brazil increased its benchmark interest rate to 14.75% in early May 2025 to combat inflation.

Why it Matters:

The May inflation data will be crucial for the Central Bank of Brazil's decision on interest rates in its June meeting. If inflation remains high, further interest rate hikes are possible, potentially impacting economic growth. President Lula's administration will face pressure to address high inflation while pursuing its development agenda.

Signal Level:

Medium

Italy Industrial Production (Apr)

Italy's April industrial production figures will be released on June 9, 2025. This follows a 0.1% month-on-month increase in March, beating expectations. Recent economic indicators for Italy include a GDP of €431.12 billion as of January 1, 2025, an inflation rate of 122.5 as of March 1, 2025, an unemployment rate of 6.0% as of March 1, 2025, and an interest rate of 2.39% as of April 1, 2025. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni recently announced plans for a diplomatic mission to the Indo-Pacific, highlighting its growing importance to Italy.

Why it Matters:

The April industrial production data will offer insights into the health of the Italian economy and inform future policy decisions by Prime Minister Meloni's government. Continued weakness in industrial output could prompt further economic stimulus measures, while strong growth may allow the government to focus on other priorities like its Indo-Pacific strategy. The data's potential impact on investor confidence and the value of the Euro will be closely watched by international markets.

Signal Level:

Medium

United Kingdom Labour Market Report (Apr)

The UK Labour Market report for April 2025 reveals a cooling labor market with decreased job vacancies, falling below pre-pandemic levels. While nominal earnings show growth, real earnings are now positive, with a slight rise in employment and stable unemployment.

Why it Matters:

The UK government under Prime Minister Keir Starmer will likely face pressure to address the cooling labor market and potential dip in payrolled employees. Policies focused on stimulating job growth and supporting those entering the workforce may be necessary. The continued growth in nominal earnings could have implications for inflation and interest rates.

Signal Level:

Medium

S&P Global Investment Manager Index (Jun)

The S&P Global Investment Manager Index (IMI) for June 2025 will reveal insights into global investment sentiment, focusing on key markets like China, Germany, the USA, and the UK. The index will likely reflect the prevailing economic conditions and recent events, such as Germany's civil defense initiatives, technological advancements like drone production and digital IDs, and South Korea's growth projections.

Why it Matters:

Shifts in investor sentiment towards specific sectors, like tech or energy, as indicated by the IMI, will influence investment flows and potentially impact stock market performance in the respective countries. Policy decisions by key actors like Chancellor Merz, Prime Minister Starmer, and Vice-President Vance could be influenced by the IMI's findings and their potential economic and political ramifications.

Signal Level:

Medium

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Malaysia Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate (Apr)

Malaysia will release April industrial production and unemployment rate data on June 9, 2025. In March, industrial production increased 3.2% year-on-year, boosted by growth in mining and quarrying and manufacturing, while electricity output declined. As of March, the unemployment rate stood at 3.1%.

Why it Matters:

The April data will offer insights into the health of the Malaysian economy. Stronger-than-expected industrial production could signal continued economic momentum, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions by Bank Negara Malaysia. Changes in the unemployment rate may impact consumer spending and overall economic growth.

Signal Level:

Medium

Brussels Forum 2025

The Brussels Forum 2025, taking place on June 11-12, will focus on transatlantic cooperation in a disrupted global landscape. Discussions will cover various challenges including the war in Ukraine, economic competition with China, and democratic backsliding.

Why it Matters:

The forum may produce renewed commitments to transatlantic cooperation on security, economic, and technological issues. Outcomes will likely influence policy decisions related to the war in Ukraine, relations with China, and the future of democratic alliances.

Signal Level:

Medium

United States CPI Inflation (May)

The U.S. May CPI report will be released on June 11, 2025. The April CPI was 2.3% year-over-year, with forecasts for May ranging from 2.4% to 3.4%. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy may be influenced by this data.

Why it Matters:

If inflation exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may maintain or raise interest rates, impacting economic growth and potentially leading to a recession. Conversely, lower inflation could lead to interest rate cuts, potentially stimulating economic activity but also increasing the risk of inflation.

Signal Level:

Medium

Mexico Industrial Production (Apr)

Mexico's industrial production for April 2025 will be released on June 9, 2025. Preliminary data suggests that industrial production expanded in April, rebounding from a contraction in March. Recent economic indicators for Mexico show high inflation, low unemployment, and a moderate interest rate.

Why it Matters:

The April industrial production figures will offer insights into the health of the Mexican economy under President Sheinbaum's administration. Continued growth in industrial production could signal economic resilience amidst high inflation, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions by the central bank. A negative result could raise concerns about the economy's overall trajectory and potentially impact investor confidence.

Signal Level:

Medium

UK - Government spending review

The UK government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, will conduct a spending review concluding on June 11, 2025. This review follows the 2024 Autumn Budget and will finalize departmental budgets for the next three fiscal years, emphasizing technology adoption and public service reform. The UK's economic context includes GDP growth of 0.7% in Q1 2025, an unemployment rate of 4.5%, and inflation at 3.5% in April 2025.

Why it Matters:

The spending review will shape the UK's economic and social landscape for the coming years, impacting public services and potentially influencing future elections. The government's focus on technology and reform suggests a drive for efficiency and modernization within public services. The allocation of resources will likely reflect the Labour government's priorities and could have significant consequences for different sectors.

Signal Level:

Medium

Poland - Vote of confidence for PM Donald Tusk's coalition government

The Polish parliament will hold a vote of confidence on June 11, 2025, for PM Donald Tusk's coalition government. This follows the recent presidential election where the opposition-backed candidate, Karol Nawrocki, narrowly won against Tusk's coalition's candidate. The vote will be a key test for Tusk's government, which has a 242-seat majority in the 460-seat lower house.

Why it Matters:

The vote of confidence will likely reaffirm Tusk's government's majority, but the new president's veto power could create significant challenges for enacting their agenda. This political gridlock may lead to difficulties in implementing policy reforms or passing legislation, particularly on contentious issues like social security and rule of law. The potential for early elections also exists, though it's not the most likely outcome.

Signal Level:

Medium

Thursday, June 12, 2025

United Kingdom Balance of Trade (Apr)

The United Kingdom's April 2025 Balance of Trade figures will be released on June 12, 2025. The forecast is -20.8 billion GBP, compared to -19.87 billion GBP in March 2025. The trade balance is a key economic indicator under Prime Minister Keir Starmer's administration.

Why it Matters:

A worse-than-expected trade balance could negatively impact the British pound and investor confidence in the UK economy. It could also increase pressure on the government to implement policies that promote exports and reduce imports. A better than expected result could have positive implications for the GBP. The results will also inform future policy decisions.

Signal Level:

Medium

India Inflation (May)

India's May 2025 inflation data will be released on June 9, 2025. In April 2025, retail inflation eased to a six-year low of 3.16%, down from March's 3.34%, prompting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates to 5.5% in June. The RBI expects CPI inflation to average 4% for fiscal year 2025-26.

Why it Matters:

The lower inflation rate and subsequent interest rate cuts will likely stimulate economic growth by boosting consumer spending and investment. The RBI's shift to a "neutral" monetary policy stance suggests future rate adjustments will be data-dependent, focusing on balancing growth and inflation. Prime Minister Modi's focus on women-led development could lead to further economic and social progress, though challenges such as high youth unemployment and wealth disparity persist.

Signal Level:

Medium

United Kingdom monthly GDP, incl. Manufacturing, Services and Construction Output (Apr)

The UK's monthly GDP data for April 2025 will be released on June 12, 2025. Q1 2025 GDP grew by 0.7%, exceeding expectations. However, more recent data, such as the April composite PMI falling to its lowest level since September 2023, suggests this growth may not be sustained.

Why it Matters:

The April GDP data will be crucial for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government in assessing the effectiveness of current economic policies. A slowdown in growth could necessitate policy adjustments. Global economic uncertainty, partly due to trade tensions, poses a significant challenge to the UK economy.

Signal Level:

Medium

Global GEP Supply Chain Volatility Index (May)

The Global GEP Supply Chain Volatility Index for May 2025 reported negative values for all regions tracked, including Asia (-0.32), EU (-0.29), North America (-0.33), and the UK (-1.12), indicating underutilization of supply chain capacity. This coincides with Germany's plans to bolster civil defense infrastructure and expand its military, influenced by Chancellor Merz's focus on strengthening defense capabilities and economic revival amidst geopolitical uncertainty and rising tensions with Russia.

Why it Matters:

Germany's investment in civil defense and military expansion will likely strain public finances and could impact resource allocation for economic recovery efforts. Chancellor Merz's focus on defense and security may shift Germany's foreign policy priorities, potentially impacting relations within the EU and with other global powers. The underutilization of supply chain capacity suggests potential economic stagnation and could influence future policy decisions related to trade and industrial production.

Signal Level:

Medium

Türkiye Industrial Production (Apr)

Türkiye's April Industrial Production figures will be released, following a 2.5% year-on-year increase in March, marking a rebound from a 1.9% contraction in February. The manufacturing PMI for April remained at 47.3, signaling ongoing challenges for the sector, despite a slight easing in the rates of decline for output, new orders, and exports.

Why it Matters:

The upcoming data release will offer insights into the health of the Turkish economy and may influence policy decisions. A continued contraction in industrial production could put pressure on the Turkish government to implement further economic stimulus measures. The performance of the Turkish economy is relevant to key actors like Germany's Chancellor Merz and UK Prime Minister Starmer, given their respective countries' economic ties with Türkiye.

Signal Level:

Medium

United States PPI (May)

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for May 2025 will be released on June 12, 2025. In April 2025, the PPI was 147.68, representing a -0.47% decrease from the previous month and a 2.41% increase year-over-year. The April PPI figures marked the second consecutive month of negative growth.

Why it Matters:

The May 2025 PPI data will provide insights into inflationary pressures within the US economy, which will be closely watched by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. Continued negative PPI growth could signal weakening demand and potentially influence future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve, such as interest rate adjustments.

Signal Level:

Medium

Friday, June 13, 2025

Eurozone Balance of Trade (Apr)

The Eurozone balance of trade data for April 2025 will be released on June 9, 2025. This follows a record trade surplus of €36.8 billion in March 2025, driven by increased exports, especially to the US. Key actors, including French President Macron, Italian Prime Minister Meloni, and German Chancellor Merz, will be watching this data closely as they navigate complex political and economic relationships within the EU and with global powers like the US.

Why it Matters:

A positive trade balance for April will likely strengthen the Euro and reinforce the EU's position in global trade, potentially providing leverage in ongoing geopolitical negotiations. However, a negative result could weaken the Euro and raise concerns about the impact of global economic slowdowns and rising protectionism, impacting domestic industries in countries like Germany, Italy, and France. The outcome may influence policy decisions related to trade, investment, and fiscal stimulus in the affected countries.

Signal Level:

Medium

Germany - CPI and HCIP data (May)

Germany's May 2025 CPI and HICP data will be released on June 9, 2025. Preliminary estimates indicate that the CPI will remain at 2.1%, the same as in April 2025, and slightly above market expectations of 2.0%. The HICP is also expected to remain at 2.1%. This comes as Germany faces economic headwinds, including a contracting GDP and rising political power of the far-right AfD party.

Why it Matters:

The release of this data will likely impact the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions, as inflation remains above the 2% target. Continued economic stagnation and rising inflation may further fuel support for the far-right AfD, posing challenges for Chancellor Merz's government. The data may also affect investor confidence and influence decisions related to investment and trade.

Signal Level:

Medium

Spain Inflation (May, final)

Spain's final inflation rate for May 2025 is confirmed at 1.9%, marking a decrease from April's 2.2% and the lowest rate in seven months. This slowdown is primarily attributed to falling prices in leisure and culture, a steeper drop in transport costs, and a more moderate rise in electricity prices compared to May 2024.

Why it Matters:

The lower-than-expected inflation rate may provide the Spanish government with more flexibility in its economic policies and potentially boost consumer spending. However, Spain continues to face challenges such as political fragmentation, sluggish productivity, a housing crisis, and high public debt which could impact long-term economic growth and stability.

Signal Level:

Medium

EU industrial production figures (April) & Q1 labour market data

The EU will release April industrial production and Q1 2025 labor market data on June 9, 2025. This follows a period of economic uncertainty, with rising inflation in China and Germany, and recent marginal employment growth in the Eurozone coupled with weakening business confidence. Key actors, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, will be closely watching these figures.

Why it Matters:

The data releases will likely influence policy decisions by the European Central Bank and individual member states, particularly regarding interest rates and economic stimulus measures. Positive data could strengthen the Euro and boost investor confidence, while negative data may exacerbate existing economic concerns and increase pressure on policymakers to take action. The relationship between Merz and other world leaders, like US President Trump, may be impacted by the data and resulting policy changes.

Signal Level:

Medium

Eurozone Industrial Production (Apr)

The Euro Area Industrial Production figures for April 2025 will be released on June 9, 2025. Recent data indicates that German Industrial Production declined by 1.4% month-over-month in April, exceeding expectations of a 1% drop. This follows a revised 2.3% growth in March. Key actors, including French President Macron, Italian Prime Minister Meloni, and German Chancellor Merz, will be closely watching these figures as they grapple with ongoing economic challenges and differing stances on issues such as the war in Ukraine.

Why it Matters:

The April industrial production data will significantly impact policy decisions within the Eurozone. Weaker than expected results may prompt calls for further economic stimulus measures or adjustments to existing policies. The divergence in views between key European leaders, particularly regarding support for Ukraine, could further complicate efforts to coordinate a unified economic response to regional and global challenges.

Signal Level:

Medium

India Trade (May)

India's May trade data will be released on June 9, 2025. In April, India's goods exports increased by 9.1% to $38.5 billion, resulting in a widened trade deficit of $26.4 billion. Key factors include increased exports to the US and higher imports of petroleum and electronics. India's overall economic growth remains strong, with a projected real GDP growth of around 6.5% in the coming years.

Why it Matters:

The May trade data will offer insights into the evolving trade dynamics between India and its key partners, especially the US. Ongoing negotiations for a trade agreement could be influenced by India's proposed retaliatory tariffs on certain US products. Prime Minister Modi's focus on strengthening India's domestic manufacturing and promoting self-reliance will likely shape future trade policies.

Signal Level:

Medium

Japan Industrial Production (Apr, final)

Japan's industrial production for April 2025 is set to be released on June 9, 2025. Preliminary data indicates a 0.7% year-on-year increase and a 0.9% month-on-month decrease. The final April figures will offer insight into the health of the Japanese industrial sector, following a 1.0% YoY increase in March.

Why it Matters:

The final industrial production data will likely influence the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. A significant deviation from the preliminary figures could affect the value of the Japanese Yen and investor confidence in the Japanese economy. The data will also be relevant in light of recent geopolitical events, such as the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning's entry into Japan's EEZ.

Signal Level:

Medium

Saturday, June 14, 2025

Canada - UK PM Keir Starmer to meet with PM Mark Carney ahead of G7 Summit

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will meet Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on June 14, 2025, ahead of the G7 Summit in Alberta. This meeting follows a recent royal visit by King Charles to Canada, seen as a show of support amid trade tensions with the US. Carney recently formed a new cabinet focused on addressing the strained US-Canada relationship and boosting the Canadian economy.

Why it Matters:

The meeting will likely focus on strengthening the UK-Canada economic partnership, particularly concerning trade and investment, and coordinating strategies for the upcoming G7 summit. Discussions will also cover shared security concerns, and potentially how to navigate the ongoing US trade war and the increasing global instability.

Signal Level:

Medium

250th Anniversary of US Army; military parade and protests planned

The U.S. Army will celebrate its 250th anniversary on June 14, 2025, with a military parade in Washington, D.C. This event, occurring amidst a backdrop of economic uncertainty with contracting manufacturing and service sectors, coincides with President Trump's 79th birthday and has prompted planned protests across the nation.

Why it Matters:

The parade and protests will likely heighten existing political tensions within the U.S. The substantial cost of the parade, estimated between $25 and $45 million, may draw criticism given the current economic climate. President Trump's public appearance and the potential for clashes between supporters and protesters could create security challenges and further polarize public opinion.

Signal Level:

Medium

Sunday, June 15, 2025

G7 Summit

The 2025 G7 Summit, hosted by Canada, will prioritize Ukraine's future and the progress of US-led peace talks. President Zelenskyy's attendance will allow for direct engagement with G7 leaders on reconstruction efforts and long-term security assurances. While discussions on supporting Ukraine will dominate, the summit is also expected to address China's growing economic and military influence, particularly in light of US engagement in the Indo-Pacific, exemplified by joint military exercises with the Philippines. The global economic implications of China's complex economic landscape, marked by dominance in some sectors yet also showing signs of potential vulnerabilities, will likely feature in discussions.

Why it Matters:

The summit comes at a critical juncture in global geopolitics. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and its global impacts necessitate coordinated action from leading economies. Simultaneously, managing the rise of China requires strategic alignment among G7 nations. The summit's outcomes could significantly shape the trajectory of the conflict in Ukraine, influence the global approach to China, and impact the broader international security and economic landscape.

Signal Level:

High

Monday, June 23, 2025

Internet Governance Forum

The 2025 Internet Governance Forum (IGF) is expected to be heavily influenced by escalating US-China tensions, playing out in the digital sphere. China's economic outreach to Europe and the US military presence in the Philippines signal potential proxy battles over internet governance norms, particularly regarding data sovereignty, cybersecurity, and the role of tech companies. China's economic volatility (exemplified by BYD's stock performance) may also affect its negotiating position. Domestic debates on internet freedom, such as those in South Korea, will further complicate discussions.

Why it Matters:

The IGF serves as a vital platform for shaping the future of the internet. The 2025 forum comes at a critical juncture where competing visions for internet governance, particularly between the US and China, are intensifying. The outcomes of the IGF could significantly impact global internet freedom, data flows, and cybersecurity standards. The potential for alliances and bloc formations, as indicated by China's European outreach, raises the stakes considerably.

Signal Level:

High

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

NATO Summit

The upcoming NATO Summit in June 2025 is likely to focus on the growing economic and political influence of China, potentially exacerbating existing internal divisions within the alliance. China's aggressive economic strategies, including price competition in key sectors like electric vehicles, and its diplomatic outreach to European nations, pose a challenge to NATO's strategic interests. Internal disagreements, exemplified by debates over historical figures with communist ties, could hinder the alliance's ability to formulate a cohesive response.

Why it Matters:

This summit occurs amidst a backdrop of intensifying geopolitical competition. Decisions made at the summit will have significant implications for transatlantic security, economic stability, and the future of the rules-based international order. The potential for internal divisions within NATO adds another layer of complexity, potentially undermining the alliance's ability to effectively address the challenges posed by China's rise.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, June 26, 2025

General Council meeting of the ECB (virtual)

The ECB's June 26, 2025 General Council meeting occurs amidst a complex economic and geopolitical landscape. BYD's aggressive pricing strategy in the EV market signals intensifying global competition and potential deflationary pressures. Concurrently, China's diplomatic engagement with Denmark underscores its focus on strengthening European economic ties. These factors, alongside internal political dynamics in South Korea, will likely influence the ECB's assessment of the global economic outlook and its potential impact on the Eurozone.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's monetary policy decisions have significant implications for the Eurozone economy. Understanding the context surrounding this meeting, particularly the interplay of global economic competition, potential deflationary pressures, and evolving geopolitical relationships, is crucial for anticipating potential policy shifts and their subsequent impact on financial markets, businesses, and consumers within the Eurozone.

Signal Level:

High

Tuesday, July 01, 2025

Denmark Assumes EU Presidency

Denmark's upcoming EU Presidency (July 1, 2025) is expected to prioritize European security and defense, influenced by the broader geopolitical landscape including ongoing regional tensions and the evolving relationship between the EU and China. This focus will likely lead to increased discussions on defense spending, military cooperation, and the EU's role in international security.

Why it Matters:

Denmark's focus on security and defense during its EU Presidency comes at a crucial time for the bloc. While a recent ceasefire suggests de-escalation in the Middle East, potential threats closer to home remain a concern. Denmark's presidency will need to balance its economic relationship with China with the broader EU security agenda. This balancing act will be closely scrutinized as it could have significant implications for EU policy and international relations.

Signal Level:

High

Sunday, July 06, 2025

BRICS Summit

The upcoming BRICS Summit in July 2025 takes place against a backdrop of complex geopolitical and economic factors. China's economic performance, signaled by potential instability in its electric vehicle market (e.g., BYD's stock decline), will likely be a key discussion point. China's diplomatic overtures towards Europe, particularly Denmark, suggest a strategic effort to diversify its international partnerships, potentially influencing its approach to BRICS alliances. While not directly impacting the summit, regional tensions, such as the historical debate within South Korea, highlight broader ideological struggles that could indirectly affect interactions with BRICS members.

Why it Matters:

The BRICS summit represents a forum for major emerging economies to coordinate on economic and geopolitical issues. Understanding China's economic health and its diplomatic strategy is crucial for assessing the bloc's overall direction and influence on the global stage. The summit's outcomes could have significant implications for global trade, development, and security. Analyzing the interplay of these factors will be essential for policymakers to effectively navigate the evolving international landscape.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, July 09, 2025

OPEC 9th International Summit

The upcoming OPEC 9th International Summit in July 2025 comes at a time of uncertainty in the energy market. While details regarding the summit's agenda remain limited, the potential impact of the evolving electric vehicle market, global economic outlook, geopolitical tensions, and internal OPEC+ dynamics will likely dominate discussions. The meeting will likely focus on navigating the energy transition, balancing short-term market stability with long-term strategic planning, and managing internal cohesion amongst member states in the face of external pressures.

Why it Matters:

Decisions made at the OPEC summit significantly impact global oil supply and prices, influencing global energy security, economic stability, and inflation rates. The summit's outcomes could have ripple effects across various sectors, from transportation and manufacturing to consumer spending and government policy. This is especially important given the current backdrop of evolving geopolitical alliances and ongoing uncertainty in the electric vehicle market. The summit will be closely watched by governments, businesses, and consumers alike.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 1)

The ECB Governing Council's July 23rd monetary policy meeting carries significant weight given the complex confluence of economic and geopolitical factors at play. While recent Eurozone economic indicators (inflation, GDP growth, unemployment – *data required*) will be central to the ECB's decision-making, the looming possibility of a US-EU trade deal under a returning Trump administration introduces a layer of uncertainty. This potential deal, while positive in principle, carries risks depending on its specifics, and the ECB will likely adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach. The competitive pressures in global markets exemplified by BYD's stock decline after price reductions, along with the potential easing of geopolitical tension with the Hamas ceasefire, add further complexity to the backdrop. The meeting's outcome, particularly regarding interest rate decisions and forward guidance, will be crucial for understanding the ECB's near-term monetary policy stance.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's decisions directly impact financial markets, borrowing costs, and overall economic activity within the Eurozone. This particular meeting is critical due to the uncertainty surrounding the potential US-EU trade deal and its potential implications for Eurozone growth and inflation. The meeting's outcome will provide insight into the ECB's assessment of these factors and their potential impact on monetary policy.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, July 24, 2025

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 2), followed by press confer

The ECB Governing Council meeting on July 24, 2025, is expected to focus on navigating potential deflationary pressures hinted at by recent market activity, such as BYD's price reductions in the electric vehicle sector. While global events like potential US-EU trade developments and the Gaza ceasefire are relevant to the broader economic landscape, the ECB's immediate priority will likely be maintaining price stability within the Eurozone. The meeting's outcome, particularly the press conference, will be crucial for understanding the ECB's assessment of the current economic trajectory and potential policy adjustments.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's monetary policy decisions directly impact borrowing costs, investment, and overall economic activity within the Eurozone. This meeting's outcome will signal the ECB's response to emerging deflationary pressures, influencing market sentiment and potentially impacting global financial markets. Understanding the ECB's stance is crucial for investors, businesses, and policymakers alike.

Signal Level:

High

Tuesday, September 09, 2025

UN General Assembly

The 2025 UN General Assembly is expected to be dominated by discussions on shifting geopolitical alliances, particularly in the context of a potential second Trump administration and its impact on US-EU trade relations and Middle East peace processes. Economic competition, particularly in the electric vehicle sector as evidenced by BYD's market dynamics, will also be a key theme, alongside broader discussions on sustainable development and the role of multilateralism in a changing global landscape.

Why it Matters:

The potential realignment of US-EU trade relations under a second Trump presidency could significantly reshape global trade dynamics and the future of multilateral institutions. The US's continued involvement in mediating conflicts like the situation in Gaza underscores its ongoing role in regional stability, while BYD's performance provides a key indicator of China's growing economic influence and the intensifying competition in strategically important industries. These factors will shape discussions and potentially influence policy decisions at the UNGA, impacting global governance and international cooperation.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 1)

The ECB's Governing Council convenes for its monetary policy meeting amidst a complex global economic backdrop. Key factors influencing the council's deliberations include signals of a global economic slowdown (evidenced by BYD's price cuts), the potential for a rapid US-EU trade deal under a hypothetical returning Trump administration, and the fragile Gaza ceasefire. The absence of a detailed event description underscores the need for close monitoring of economic indicators and ECB communications.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's monetary policy decisions have significant implications for the Eurozone economy and global financial markets. This meeting's outcome will be crucial given the confluence of economic and geopolitical uncertainties. The potential for a US-EU trade deal and the fragile state of the Gaza ceasefire add further complexity, making the ECB's response and forward guidance especially critical for investors and policymakers.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, September 11, 2025

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 2), followed by press confer

The ECB's September 2025 monetary policy meeting comes at a complex juncture marked by potential deflationary pressures, volatile trade negotiations, and emerging market uncertainties. The confluence of these factors will heavily influence the ECB's decisions on interest rates and other monetary tools, demanding a nuanced approach to balance price stability and economic growth within the Eurozone.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's policy decisions have significant ramifications for the Eurozone economy and global financial markets. Given the uncertain geopolitical and economic backdrop, the meeting's outcome will be closely scrutinized for insights into the ECB's assessment of risks and opportunities, particularly regarding inflation, trade, and emerging market stability. These decisions could impact investment, consumer spending, and overall economic performance within the Eurozone and beyond.

Signal Level:

High

Sunday, September 14, 2025

Russian Regional & Municipal Elections

The upcoming Russian regional and municipal elections on September 14, 2025, warrant close observation due to potential information manipulation and external influencing factors. While specific details on the elections are currently limited, the broader geopolitical and economic context, including Russia's increasing reliance on a potentially weakening Chinese economy and the prevalence of disinformation campaigns, raises concerns about the fairness and transparency of the electoral process.

Why it Matters:

These elections offer insights into the stability of the current Russian regime, the effectiveness of ongoing sanctions, and the evolving relationship between Russia and China. The potential for manipulated narratives and disinformation campaigns surrounding the elections could further exacerbate internal tensions and regional instability. The outcomes will likely influence future domestic policy decisions and Russia's international relations.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Governing Council of the ECB: non-monetary policy meeting (virtual)

The ECB's Governing Council is holding a non-monetary policy meeting on September 24, 2025. While the agenda is unconfirmed, the current global context suggests potential discussions on geopolitical risks (including rising nationalist sentiments exemplified by the Korean Military Academy decision and international tensions highlighted by Namibia's genocide commemorations and Trump's actions), emerging market dynamics (such as the BYD stock decline amidst market share gains), and ESG considerations (possibly linked to the "Ür-ESG, Brazil, and the Rothschilds" headline). The virtual format suggests either logistical convenience or the sensitivity of the topics at hand.

Why it Matters:

This meeting could signal shifts in the ECB's strategic outlook and operational approach. Discussions on geopolitical risks and emerging market dynamics could influence the ECB's assessment of financial stability and future policy decisions. Deliberations on ESG factors may indicate upcoming changes to the ECB's investment strategies and regulatory frameworks. Understanding the key takeaways from this meeting will be crucial for anticipating future ECB actions and their potential impact on the Eurozone and the global economy.

Signal Level:

Medium

Thursday, September 25, 2025

General Council meeting (virtual)

The upcoming General Council meeting is likely to address several interconnected geopolitical challenges, including economic volatility stemming from intensifying market competition (particularly in the electric vehicle sector), the influence of historical narratives on contemporary political tensions, and emerging risks to both intra-EU relations and the transatlantic partnership. These issues are highlighted by recent events such as BYD's stock decline amidst market share gains, the controversy surrounding Hong Beom-do's bust in South Korea, Germany's potential suspension of EU funds to Slovakia, and former President Trump's presence at Arlington National Cemetery.

Why it Matters:

These potential discussion points represent significant challenges to global stability and cooperation. Economic instability can exacerbate international tensions and fuel protectionist policies. Contested historical narratives can undermine diplomatic efforts and escalate regional conflicts. Fractures within the EU and strains on the transatlantic relationship could weaken the Western alliance and create opportunities for adversaries.

Signal Level:

High

Monday, October 13, 2025

Annual Meeting of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund

The 2025 Annual Meeting of the World Bank and IMF will likely be dominated by discussions of global economic uncertainty fueled by signs of a potential slowdown in the Chinese economy, rising economic nationalism, and intra-European tensions. The confluence of these factors creates a complex and potentially volatile economic landscape requiring careful monitoring and international cooperation.

Why it Matters:

The meeting provides a crucial platform for global leaders and financial institutions to address pressing economic challenges. Decisions and discussions at the meeting will influence global financial policies, development aid, and international economic cooperation. The potential instability highlighted by the current economic climate underscores the importance of this year's meeting in navigating a challenging global landscape.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting hosted by the Bank of Italy (Day 1)

The ECB Governing Council convenes in Rome, hosted by the Bank of Italy, to deliberate on monetary policy amidst a complex economic landscape. While specific Eurozone data is currently lacking, global market volatility, exemplified by price competition in sectors like electric vehicles (as seen with BYD's price reduction), could signal deflationary pressures. This meeting is crucial for assessing these pressures and their potential impact on Eurozone inflation and economic stability. The Italian context of the meeting may also highlight discussions specific to Italy's economic situation.

Why it Matters:

Decisions made at this meeting will directly influence interest rates and monetary policy within the Eurozone, significantly impacting economic growth, inflation, and overall financial stability. The meeting's outcomes will have ripple effects across global markets. The Bank of Italy's hosting of the meeting adds another layer of complexity, potentially signaling a focus on Italy's specific economic challenges and their implications for the broader Eurozone.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, October 30, 2025

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting hosted by the Bank of Italy (Day 2), followed

The ECB's October 2025 Governing Council meeting, hosted in Rome, is poised to address critical economic and geopolitical factors impacting the Eurozone. Against a backdrop of potential easing of EU-US trade tensions, a slowing Chinese economy, and growing geopolitical uncertainty due to China's military focus, the ECB will likely discuss these influences on inflation, growth, and future monetary policy direction.

Why it Matters:

The meeting's outcome will significantly influence market expectations for Eurozone interest rates, impacting borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, influencing exchange rates, and shaping investment decisions. The ECB's assessment of these converging factors will be crucial for understanding the near-term trajectory of the Eurozone economy. The Italian setting adds a further layer of nuance, given the country's economic vulnerabilities and potential influence on the discussion.

Signal Level:

High

Monday, November 10, 2025

2025 UN Climate Change Conference

The 2025 UN Climate Change Conference will take place amidst a complex geopolitical and economic landscape. Escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with trade disputes between the EU and US, threaten to divert resources and attention from climate action. China's economic influence, particularly in the green technology sector, will be a key factor, but the recent performance of companies like BYD suggests potential instability in the EV market. Furthermore, rising nationalist sentiments, exemplified by the Hong Beom-do controversy in South Korea, could hinder international cooperation on crucial issues like technology transfer and financial assistance.

Why it Matters:

The conference's outcomes are critical for global climate change mitigation efforts. Failure to achieve meaningful progress could exacerbate existing geopolitical tensions and economic instability, while successful cooperation could unlock significant investment in green technologies and accelerate the transition to a sustainable future. The interplay of national interests, economic realities, and rising nationalist sentiment will heavily influence the conference's success or failure.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

Governing Council of the ECB: non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt

The ECB's non-monetary policy meeting on November 19, 2025, comes at a crucial juncture marked by escalating geopolitical tensions (Ukraine conflict, China's military focus), evolving trade dynamics (EU-US talks), and potential economic headwinds (EV market pressures). While internal ECB matters will be addressed, the meeting will likely focus on assessing the impact of these external factors on the Eurozone's economic stability and future outlook.

Why it Matters:

The discussions and potential outcomes of this meeting could influence future ECB policy decisions and provide insights into the bank's assessment of key risks and opportunities for the Eurozone economy. The convergence of several geopolitical and economic factors makes this a particularly significant meeting, as the ECB grapples with potential spillover effects from global events.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, November 20, 2025

General Council meeting of the ECB (hybrid)

The ECB's November 20, 2025 General Council meeting will address a complex confluence of economic and geopolitical factors. Key considerations include potential deflationary pressures from sectors like electric vehicles (signaled by BYD's price reductions), the evolving EU-US trade relationship, and escalating geopolitical tensions linked to the war in Ukraine and China's military buildup. The meeting's outcome could significantly impact the ECB's monetary policy stance.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's decisions have significant implications for the Eurozone's economic stability and growth. Navigating the current landscape of potential deflation, trade negotiations, and geopolitical risks requires careful calibration of monetary policy. The meeting's outcomes will signal the ECB's assessment of these challenges and its intended course of action, influencing investor confidence, market behavior, and the overall economic outlook for the region.

Signal Level:

High

Saturday, November 22, 2025

G20 Summit

The upcoming G20 summit in November 2025 is expected to be fraught with tension due to several converging geopolitical factors. Escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Germany now approving deeper Ukrainian strikes into Russian territory, raises the risk of unpredictable Russian retaliation and will likely dominate the summit's agenda. Simultaneously, ongoing EU-US trade talks amidst existing tariff disputes, coupled with potential instability in the electric vehicle market signaled by BYD's stock decline, contribute to a climate of economic uncertainty. Further complicating the backdrop are rising geopolitical tensions, exemplified by China's focus on protecting military industrial facilities, and ideological clashes reflected in South Korea's internal debates.

Why it Matters:

The confluence of these events creates a challenging environment for international cooperation and consensus-building at the G20. The potential for significant escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict poses a major threat to global security and energy stability. Strained trade relations between major economies and signs of economic volatility further undermine prospects for coordinated action on global challenges. The summit, while crucial for dialogue, may yield limited progress amidst these heightened tensions.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, December 17, 2025

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 1)

The ECB's Governing Council convenes for its monetary policy meeting amidst a complex global landscape. Potential deflationary pressures stemming from weakening global demand, exemplified by BYD's price reductions, warrant close attention. Geopolitical risks, including EU-US trade tensions and escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict rhetoric, add to the uncertainty. Xi Jinping's focus on protecting Chinese military industrial facilities further complicates the global trade outlook.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's policy decisions will have significant ramifications for the Eurozone economy and global financial markets. Understanding the interplay of these global factors – potential deflation, trade disputes, and geopolitical risks – is crucial for anticipating the ECB's policy response and its potential impact.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, December 18, 2025

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 2), followed by press confer

The ECB's Governing Council meeting concludes on December 18, 2025, with a press conference expected to announce monetary policy adjustments. The ECB faces a complex decision-making environment, navigating escalating geopolitical tensions (Ukraine-Russia conflict, EU-US trade talks, China's military industrial focus), alongside concerns about global economic vulnerabilities (signaled by BYD's stock decline).

Why it Matters:

The ECB's policy decisions will have significant implications for the Eurozone economy and global financial markets. The meeting takes place against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty, requiring the ECB to carefully balance inflation control with the risks of exacerbating economic instability. Market reactions will be crucial in gauging the effectiveness and perceived appropriateness of the ECB's response to the current environment.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, February 04, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 1)

The ECB's Governing Council meeting on February 4, 2026, takes place against a backdrop of significant global economic uncertainty. Key factors influencing the ECB's monetary policy deliberations include the ongoing EU-US trade talks, signs of a potential global economic slowdown (exemplified by BYD's price reductions in the EV sector), and escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding the Ukraine conflict. President Lagarde's statements will be crucial for understanding the ECB's policy direction.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's monetary policy decisions have significant implications for the Eurozone economy and global financial markets. The meeting's outcome will signal the ECB's assessment of economic risks and its willingness to adjust policy in response to evolving global conditions. Given the current uncertainty, market participants will closely scrutinize the ECB's communication for clues about future interest rate adjustments and other policy measures.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, February 05, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 2), followed by press confer

The ECB's February 2026 monetary policy meeting carries significant weight given the complex interplay of economic and geopolitical factors. Slowing demand in key export markets (signaled by BYD's price reductions), coupled with escalating geopolitical risks (Merz's stance on Ukraine) present the ECB with a challenging balancing act. While progress in EU-US trade talks offers a potential upside, the Governing Council must carefully weigh these factors when deciding on interest rate adjustments and communicating its forward guidance.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's decisions will have a ripple effect across financial markets and influence economic activity within the Eurozone and beyond. Interest rate adjustments impact borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, influencing investment and spending. The ECB's communication will also be closely scrutinized for insights into their assessment of the economic outlook and potential future policy actions. This meeting is crucial for understanding the ECB's response to evolving global economic headwinds and geopolitical tensions.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: non-monetary policy meeting (virtual)

The ECB's non-monetary policy meeting on February 25, 2026, will likely address key geopolitical and economic risks impacting the Eurozone. These include the evolving EU-US trade talks, escalating tensions surrounding the Ukraine conflict, and potential economic slowdown signals from China. The meeting's focus will be on assessing these risks and preparing for various scenarios to ensure Eurozone stability.

Why it Matters:

The outcomes of the EU-US trade negotiations and the trajectory of the Ukraine conflict hold significant implications for Eurozone growth and stability. Furthermore, China's economic performance and political priorities are crucial for the global economy and will indirectly affect the Eurozone. The ECB's assessment of these interconnected risks will inform its future monetary and financial stability policies.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 1)

The ECB's March 18, 2026 Governing Council meeting carries significant weight given the complex interplay of global economic and geopolitical factors. The ECB must balance inflationary pressures with supporting Eurozone growth amidst uncertainty surrounding EU-US trade talks, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and China's military industrial expansion. Indicators such as potential deflationary trends in the electric vehicle market, exemplified by BYD's pricing strategy, add further complexity to the ECB's decision-making process.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's monetary policy decisions have far-reaching consequences for the Eurozone and global economy. Interest rate adjustments and other policy measures will directly impact borrowing costs, investment decisions, and overall economic activity. The current environment, marked by geopolitical instability and evolving economic trends, makes this meeting particularly critical as the ECB navigates a challenging landscape to maintain price stability and support sustainable growth.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, March 19, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 2), followed by press confer

The ECB's Governing Council meeting on March 19, 2026, carries significant weight given the complex interplay of deflationary pressures (signaled by BYD's price cuts), potential easing of EU-US trade tensions, and escalating geopolitical risks (highlighted by statements from Merz and Xi Jinping). The ECB's decisions on interest rates, quantitative easing, and commentary on economic outlook will be crucial indicators of their response to this dynamic environment.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's monetary policy decisions will have a ripple effect across the Eurozone economy and potentially global markets. Their assessment of inflation, growth projections, and geopolitical risks will influence investor confidence, borrowing costs, and overall economic activity. The meeting's outcome will offer valuable insights into the ECB's strategy for navigating a complex economic and political landscape.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, March 26, 2026

General Council meeting of the ECB (virtual)

The ECB's March 26, 2026 General Council meeting comes at a critical juncture marked by complex economic and geopolitical dynamics. Key discussion points are likely to include potential inflationary/deflationary pressures signaled by trends in the electric vehicle market, the evolving EU-US trade relationship, and escalating geopolitical risks stemming from the situation in Ukraine and China's increased focus on military capabilities.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's policy decisions have significant implications for European and global economic stability. Decisions taken at this meeting, particularly concerning monetary policy and risk assessment, will influence market behavior, investment decisions, and overall economic growth prospects within the Eurozone and beyond. Understanding the factors influencing these decisions is crucial for anticipating potential market reactions and broader economic consequences.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, April 08, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: non-monetary policy meeting (virtual)

The ECB's non-monetary policy meeting comes at a crucial juncture marked by escalating geopolitical tensions (Ukraine conflict intensification), evolving trade dynamics (EU-US trade talks), and potential economic vulnerabilities (signaled by BYD's stock decline despite market share gains). The Governing Council will likely assess the impact of these factors on Eurozone financial stability, growth, and inflation.

Why it Matters:

The meeting's outcomes could influence future ECB policy decisions. The interconnected nature of the geopolitical and economic risks under discussion – from energy security to global trade flows – necessitates careful consideration by the ECB. The discussions will offer insights into the ECB's assessment of these risks and their potential implications for the Eurozone economy.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 1)

The ECB's Governing Council convenes for its monetary policy meeting amidst a complex backdrop of evolving EU-US trade dynamics, mixed global economic signals, and heightened geopolitical tensions. The meeting's outcome will likely be shaped by the interplay of these factors, with a focus on inflation, Eurozone growth, and external risks.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's monetary policy decisions have significant implications for the Eurozone economy and global financial markets. The current context, marked by trade uncertainties, potential economic slowdown signals from China, and geopolitical risks, adds to the complexity of the decision-making process. The outcome of this meeting will signal the ECB's assessment of these interconnected factors and its policy response, impacting investor confidence, borrowing costs, and overall economic activity within the Eurozone and beyond.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, April 30, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 2), followed by press confer

The ECB's April 30, 2026 Governing Council meeting carries significant weight given the complex interplay of geopolitical and economic factors. The meeting will likely focus on navigating inflationary pressures exacerbated by the EU-US trade dispute and heightened by Merz's endorsement of Ukrainian strikes deeper into Russian territory. Simultaneously, the ECB must consider potential weaknesses in the Chinese economy, signaled by BYD's stock decline, and its broader implications for global growth. The meeting's outcome, particularly the press conference, will offer crucial insights into the ECB's strategy for balancing inflation management, Eurozone stability, and navigating a volatile global economic outlook.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's policy decisions will have far-reaching consequences for the Eurozone economy and global financial markets. Interest rate adjustments, forward guidance, and commentary on economic risks will influence investor behavior, borrowing costs, and overall economic activity. Understanding the ECB's assessment of key geopolitical and economic factors is crucial for anticipating market reactions and potential economic shifts.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: non-monetary policy meeting (virtual)

The ECB's virtual non-monetary policy meeting on May 20, 2026, likely centered on escalating geopolitical risks, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict's impact on the Eurozone economy. Discussions likely included energy security, potential trade disruptions, and the implications of rising global tensions for inflation and market stability. The meeting likely served as a precursor to formal policy decisions.

Why it Matters:

This meeting signals the ECB's growing concern over geopolitical risks and their potential to destabilize the Eurozone economy. The focus on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with tensions surrounding US-EU trade and China's military buildup, underscores the increasingly complex global landscape the ECB must navigate. Decisions made following this meeting could influence monetary policy, financial stability measures, and the ECB's broader strategic outlook.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, June 10, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 1)

The ECB's Governing Council convenes for its monetary policy meeting amidst a complex economic and geopolitical landscape. The Council faces the challenge of balancing inflationary pressures potentially exacerbated by EU-US trade tensions, against deflationary signals from sectors like the automotive industry, possibly indicating weakening global demand. Geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-China tensions add further complexity to the decision-making process.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's decisions on interest rates and forward guidance will significantly impact the Eurozone economy and financial markets. The chosen policy direction will signal the ECB's assessment of the balance between inflation risks, economic slowdown, and geopolitical uncertainties. Market reactions to the ECB's pronouncements will be crucial indicators of investor confidence and potential economic ripple effects. The meeting's outcome holds substantial weight for the short-to-medium term trajectory of the Eurozone economy.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, June 11, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 2), followed by press confer

The ECB's June 2026 monetary policy meeting carries significant weight given the complex interplay of geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. The outcome will be heavily influenced by the ongoing Ukraine conflict, the progress of EU-US trade talks, and emerging deflationary pressures in sectors like electric vehicles. The press conference will be crucial for deciphering the ECB's policy direction.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's decisions will have a ripple effect across the Eurozone economy. Interest rate adjustments and other monetary policy tools can impact inflation, borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, and overall economic growth. The meeting's outcome will also send a signal to global markets about the ECB's assessment of the current economic and geopolitical climate.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, June 25, 2026

General Council meeting of the ECB (virtual)

The ECB's June 2026 General Council meeting comes at a crucial juncture marked by mixed economic signals, heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and underlying societal tensions. While the official agenda remains undisclosed, discussions will likely revolve around the impact of these interconnected factors on the Eurozone's economic outlook. Key considerations include the potential for price wars within the electric vehicle sector (signaled by BYD's stock decline despite market share gains), the evolving EU-US trade landscape against a backdrop of existing tariff disputes, and broader geopolitical risks stemming from rising tensions involving Russia and China.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's assessment of these developments will be critical for understanding the future trajectory of monetary policy in the Eurozone. Any indications of shifting inflation expectations or potential policy adjustments could significantly impact financial markets, particularly within the automotive and technology sectors. Furthermore, the ECB's perspective on geopolitical risks will offer valuable insights into the potential for economic disruption and the broader stability of the global financial system.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 1)

The ECB Governing Council meeting on July 22, 2026, takes place amidst a complex geopolitical and economic landscape. While specific Eurozone economic data is currently lacking, factors such as potential EU-US trade tensions, deflationary pressures signaled by EV market competition, and broader global uncertainties stemming from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and geopolitical maneuvering by China will likely influence the ECB's monetary policy decisions.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's policy decisions have significant implications for the Eurozone economy and global financial markets. A hawkish stance (e.g., interest rate hikes) aimed at combating inflation could dampen economic growth, while a dovish approach (e.g., maintaining low rates or further easing) might exacerbate inflationary pressures. The meeting's outcome will be closely watched by investors and policymakers worldwide, impacting investment decisions, currency exchange rates, and overall market sentiment.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, July 23, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 2), followed by press confer

The ECB's July 2026 Governing Council meeting carries significant weight given the confluence of complex economic and geopolitical factors. Deflationary signals from the EV market, alongside escalating geopolitical risks stemming from the Ukraine conflict and China's military industrial focus, complicate the ECB's decision-making process. While the potential easing of EU-US trade tensions offers a positive economic signal, the overall environment necessitates careful calibration of monetary policy.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's policy decisions at this meeting will have significant implications for the Eurozone economy and financial markets. The balance between deflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, and potential trade improvements will heavily influence the direction of monetary policy, impacting interest rates, inflation, and overall economic stability in the Eurozone. Market participants will closely scrutinize the ECB's statements for insights into their assessment of these complex dynamics and their potential impact on future policy.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, September 09, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank (Day 1)

The ECB Governing Council meeting on September 9, 2026, hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank, will be crucial for determining the future direction of monetary policy in the Eurozone. The meeting takes place against a backdrop of mixed economic signals, including anxieties in the electric vehicle market (signaled by BYD's stock decline despite increasing market share), potential easing of EU-US trade tensions, and persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war and US-China tensions. The ECB faces the challenge of balancing inflation control with supporting economic growth in this uncertain environment.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's decisions on interest rates and other monetary policy tools will have significant implications for the Eurozone economy and potentially global markets. The meeting's outcomes will signal the ECB's assessment of inflation, growth prospects, and geopolitical risks, providing valuable insights for investors, businesses, and policymakers. The chosen policy path will impact borrowing costs, investment decisions, and overall economic activity within the Eurozone.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, September 10, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank (Day 2), fol

The ECB Governing Council meeting on September 10, 2026, hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank, carries significant weight given the complex geopolitical and economic backdrop. Escalating tensions in the Russo-Ukrainian war, ongoing EU-US trade disputes, and China's focus on military industrial security create considerable uncertainty. While specific economic data is lacking, potential global economic slowdown signals warrant attention. The meeting's location at the Bundesbank may signal a German-influenced perspective on monetary policy.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's decisions, particularly regarding interest rates and quantitative easing, will have substantial implications for the Eurozone economy and global financial markets. Lagarde's statements will be closely scrutinized for insights into the ECB's assessment of the current economic climate and future policy trajectory. Given the interconnectedness of global markets, the ECB's actions could influence other central banks, including the Federal Reserve, and impact investor confidence.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: non-monetary policy meeting (virtual)

The ECB's non-monetary policy meeting on September 30, 2026 comes at a time of significant geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Merz greenlighting deeper Ukrainian strikes into Russia, poses substantial risks to Eurozone stability, particularly regarding energy security and potential economic fallout. Simultaneously, EU-US accelerated trade talks, complicated by an ongoing tariff dispute, add complexity to the economic outlook. Further adding to the volatile landscape, Xi Jinping's order on protecting military industrial facilities raises concerns about potential disruptions to global supply chains and their impact on inflation and growth. Finally, BYD's stock decline, despite increased market share, signals potential weakness in the electric vehicle market, a key export sector for the Eurozone.

Why it Matters:

This meeting is crucial for the ECB to strategically position itself amidst a confluence of challenges. The escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict's impact on energy prices, inflation, and supply chains requires careful consideration. The outcome of the EU-US trade talks holds significant implications for Eurozone businesses. Understanding the potential ramifications of China's actions on global trade and stability is also paramount. Finally, the meeting provides an opportunity for the ECB to assess the health of the electric vehicle market and its potential impact on the Eurozone economy. The decisions and discussions during this meeting will likely shape the ECB's future monetary policy and overall economic strategy.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, October 01, 2026

General Council meeting of the ECB (virtual)

The ECB General Council's October 2026 virtual meeting will grapple with complex economic and geopolitical crosscurrents. Key topics include managing inflation amidst potential economic slowdown signals (e.g., BYD's price reductions), assessing the impact of EU-US trade talks, evaluating the economic fallout from escalating Ukraine-Russia tensions (including Merz's authorization of strikes within Russia), and monitoring China's military industrial complex expansion.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates and inflation control, directly impact the Eurozone's economic stability and growth. The confluence of trade negotiations, geopolitical escalation, and potential economic slowdown necessitates careful analysis and response from the ECB. Misjudgments could exacerbate economic vulnerabilities and deepen regional instability.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 1)

The ECB's Governing Council convenes for its monetary policy meeting amidst a complex global economic and geopolitical landscape. Weakening demand in the Chinese electric vehicle market, exemplified by BYD's price reductions, hints at a potential global economic slowdown. Simultaneously, ongoing EU-US trade talks and escalating geopolitical tensions, including Merz's statement on Ukraine and Xi Jinping's military industrial focus, create a volatile environment for decision-making.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's interest rate decision will have significant ramifications for the Eurozone economy. A rate hike could further dampen economic growth, while maintaining current rates or cutting them could fuel inflation. The delicate balancing act required by the ECB is exacerbated by the confluence of a potential global economic slowdown, ongoing trade negotiations, and heightened geopolitical risks. The outcome of this meeting will significantly impact investor confidence, borrowing costs, and overall economic stability within the Eurozone and potentially globally.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, October 29, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 2), followed by press confer

The ECB's Governing Council meeting carries significant weight given the backdrop of ongoing EU-US trade talks and potential global economic headwinds. President Lagarde's communication will be closely scrutinized for insights into the ECB's monetary policy trajectory. The meeting's outcome could impact financial markets and influence economic sentiment within the Eurozone.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's decisions on interest rates and monetary policy directly affect borrowing costs, investment, and economic activity within the Eurozone. Given the ongoing trade tensions with the US and potential signs of global economic slowdown, the ECB's actions will be critical in navigating potential challenges and maintaining price stability.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, November 18, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: non-monetary policy meeting (virtual)

The ECB's non-monetary policy meeting on November 18, 2026, takes place amidst a complex global landscape marked by escalating geopolitical tensions and evolving economic trends. While the agenda remains undisclosed, the meeting likely focuses on assessing the impact of these developments on Eurozone financial stability and growth. Key areas of concern include the evolving EU-US trade relationship, the implicit alignment between China and Russia concerning the Ukrainian conflict, and potential instability in the electric vehicle market.

Why it Matters:

The meeting's outcomes could signal the ECB's perspective on emerging risks and opportunities, potentially influencing future monetary and regulatory policies. Understanding the ECB's assessment of geopolitical and economic factors is crucial for anticipating future policy directions and their impact on the Eurozone economy. The confluence of trade negotiations, geopolitical escalations, and sector-specific market fluctuations necessitates a comprehensive risk assessment by the central bank, the outcome of which will impact market sentiment and investor confidence.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, December 03, 2026

General Council meeting of the ECB (virtual)

The December 3, 2026, virtual meeting of the ECB General Council will focus on navigating complex global economic crosscurrents. Key considerations include the potential impacts of US-EU trade talks on Eurozone growth and inflation, escalating geopolitical risks stemming from the Ukraine conflict, and emerging signs of a potential economic slowdown in China, as signaled by BYD's stock performance. These factors present significant challenges for the ECB's monetary policy decision-making.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's monetary policy decisions have significant implications for the Eurozone's economic stability and growth. The confluence of trade negotiations, geopolitical tensions, and potential economic slowdowns in major economies creates a highly uncertain environment requiring careful navigation by the ECB. The outcomes of this meeting could influence interest rates, inflation levels, and overall economic performance within the Eurozone, impacting businesses, consumers, and global markets.

Signal Level:

High

Wednesday, December 16, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 1)

The European Central Bank (ECB) convenes its Governing Council meeting on December 16, 2026, amidst a complex economic and geopolitical landscape. Global economic slowdown signals, including BYD's price reductions and stock decline, coupled with the ongoing EU-US tariff dispute and heightened geopolitical tensions stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, will heavily influence the ECB's monetary policy deliberations. The ECB must carefully assess these factors alongside the growing influence of Chinese companies in key global markets when determining its course of action.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's decisions on monetary policy, including interest rates and quantitative easing, have significant implications for the Eurozone economy and global financial markets. This meeting's outcome will influence borrowing costs, investment decisions, and overall economic stability within the region, impacting growth, inflation, and employment levels. The intersection of global economic slowdown indicators, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty makes this a particularly crucial meeting for assessing the ECB's response to these interconnected challenges.

Signal Level:

High

Thursday, December 17, 2026

Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 2), followed by press confer

The ECB Governing Council's December 2026 monetary policy meeting carries significant weight given a complex confluence of factors. Potential deflationary pressures hinted at by BYD's price reductions, ongoing US-EU trade talks, and geopolitical tensions stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Chinese military developments all contribute to a volatile environment. The ECB's interest rate decision and President Lagarde's (or her successor's) subsequent communication will be closely scrutinized by markets for insights into the bank's assessment of these intertwined risks and their implications for Eurozone economic outlook.

Why it Matters:

The ECB's monetary policy decisions directly impact the Eurozone economy, influencing borrowing costs, investment, and overall financial stability. This particular meeting occurs at a critical juncture, with global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks heightened. The market's reaction to the ECB's actions will be a key indicator of investor confidence and could have ripple effects across global financial markets.

Signal Level:

High

Sign up today for daily intelligence briefings

© Downstream Intelligence, LLC