Gabon Heads to the Polls
On April 12, 2025, Gabon will hold its first presidential election since the August 2023 military coup that ended over 56 years of Bongo family rule. Transitional President Brice Oligui Nguema, who led the coup, is the leading candidate, having restructured the country’s institutions, constitution, and electoral code to favor his transition from military to civilian leadership. While the government presents this as a move toward democratic legitimacy, critics view it as a consolidation of military rule under the guise of reform.
The new constitution grants a seven-year presidential term, allows military officers to run for office, and centralizes electoral oversight in the Ministry of Interior. Despite opposition from civil society and parts of the international community, Nguema enjoys public support, bolstered by a slight economic uptick (from 2.4% to 2.9% growth) and his anti-corruption rhetoric. However, the process has drawn scrutiny from geopolitical actors concerned about regional stability and precedent-setting across Africa. This election is as much about internal governance as it is about how global and regional powers choose to engage with emerging “post-coup democracies.”
Secondary Effects
Sectoral Impact: The militarization of politics could reduce judicial independence and media freedom, silencing dissent long-term.
Trend Formation: Gabon’s electoral model may inspire similar playbooks in other military-led governments (e.g., Chad, Niger), weakening AU norms.
Public Sentiment: Many citizens, weary of the Bongo era, may prioritize stability over democratic purity, granting Nguema political capital.
Strategic Realignment: The nature of Gabon’s reforms will influence how donor nations and development agencies calibrate their engagement in post-coup contexts.
Geopolitical Consequences
1. France’s Strategic Foothold
Unlike other coup-born governments, Gabon under Nguema has reaffirmed close ties with France, providing Paris with a critical Central African anchor amid growing anti-French sentiment in the Sahel.
Gabon’s alignment strengthens Francophone influence, offering France a case study in post-coup cooperation, potentially shaping France’s Africa policy reset.
2. Normalization of Military Transitions
Nguema’s playbook closely mirrors General Mahamat Déby’s in Chad. If legitimized by the international community, it could set a precedent for juntas to “civilianize” power through controlled elections.
This risks institutionalizing coups as legitimate pathways to power within the African Union framework.
3. China’s Expanding Influence
With its focus on infrastructure and commodities, Gabon under Nguema is an attractive partner for China, which favors stability over governance style.
Gabon could tilt further into Beijing’s economic orbit, especially if Western criticism alienates the transitional regime.
4. Regional Integration and Security
As a member of ECCAS and CEMAC, Gabon’s direction will impact regional stability and trade dynamics. A stable transition could reinforce these blocs, but a flawed election may destabilize trust across borders.
5. Democratic Norms Under Pressure
The EU and U.S. face a dilemma: engage and legitimize a flawed process for the sake of regional stability, or condemn it and risk losing influence to less scrupulous actors.
If accepted without challenge, Gabon’s transition could erode the global democratic narrative, especially in the Global South.
